Cutting Social Security, eh?

On the front page today at Daily Kos:

Thu Dec 05, 2013 at 12:30 PM PST

Daily Kos will not enable those who enable Third Way

….They apparently prefer Third Way keep operating in secret, with their Social Security-cutting agenda off the front pages…..

….So who else is enabling Third Way’s destructive agenda? Why, let’s name names!

House members

James Clyburn (Southern South Carolina)

John Dingell (Ann Arbor, Detroit’s western suburbs, Michigan)

Ron Kind (Southwestern Wisconsin, La Crosse, Eau Claire)

Joseph Crowley (NYC, Bronx, Queens)

Allyson Schwartz (Northeast Philly, eastern Montgomery County, Pennsylvania)

Jared Polis (Boulder, Colorado)

Senators

Thomas Carper (Delaware)

Claire McCaskill (Missouri)

Mark Udall (Colorado)

Jeanne Shaheen (New Hampshire)

Kay Hagan (North Carolina)

Chris Coons (Delaware)

When considering candidate endorsements and whether we engage in a race (primary or general), we’ve long considered membership (or potential membership) in the Blue Dog Caucus. As of today, we’re adding Third Way to our exclusionary list on our candidate questionnaire.

These electeds undoubtedly appreciate the open spigot to Wall Street campaign cash. Our job is to make sure they pay a price for their cozy arrangement….

[emphasis added]

Senator McCaskill is an honorary co-chair for Third Way.

A recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by Third Way:

Cowan and Kessler: Economic Populism Is a Dead End for Democrats

The de Blasio-Warren agenda won’t travel. Colorado is the real political harbinger.

By Jon Cowan and Jim Kessler

Dec. 2, 2013 6:57 p.m. ET

….Social Security is exhibit A of this populist political and economic fantasy. A growing cascade of baby boomers will be retiring in the coming years, and the Social Security formula increases their initial benefits faster than inflation. The problem is that since 2010 Social Security payouts to seniors have exceeded payroll taxes collected from workers. This imbalance widens inexorably until it devours the entire Social Security Trust Fund in 2031, according to the Congressional Budget Office. At that point, benefits would have to be slashed by about 23%….

Mr. Cowan is president of the think tank Third Way, where Mr. Kessler is senior vice president for policy.

Oh, really?

Elizabeth Warren Calls Third Way ‘Flatly Wrong’ In Social Security Fight

Posted: 12/05/2013 2:45 pm EST  |  Updated: 12/05/2013 4:37 pm EST

WASHINGTON — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) took aim at the corporate-backed think tank Third Way on Thursday, deepening her feud with the group that attacked her Social Security plan in the Wall Street Journal.

The WSJ op-ed said that Warren was ignoring Social Security’s “undebatable solvency crisis.”

“It’s just flatly wrong,” Warren said of Third Way’s critique. “We could make modest adjustments and make the system financially stable for a century, and we could make somewhat larger adjustments and make the system pay more for seniors who rely on it … The conversation for too long has been about whether to cut Social Security benefits a little bit or a lot. And that is flatly the wrong debate to have in mind….”

….Warren responded to Third Way earlier this week by challenging Wall Street banks to be transparent about donations they have made to think tanks.

The Massachusetts Democrat said that Wall Street’s push to cut Social Security is part of a broader agenda. “It’s part of the larger issue about a rigged playing field. They don’t wanna pay more, they don’t wanna pay a fair share. I believe everybody should pay a fair share,” she said. “That’s how we make sure people can retire with dignity. That’s not what Wall Street wants to do.”

Third Way’s spokesman responded by saying that under Warren’s plan, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s CEO, would be entitled to a higher Social Security payout.

“Oh please. I’m out there working for Jamie Dimon the same way Dick Cheney is out there trying to save the environment,” Warren said….

Well, Senator McCaskill, which side are you on? People who rely on Social Security to get by, or Wall Street movers and shakers?

I know which side I’m on.

Previously:

Have camera, will travel (November 12, 2013)

KC Meetup: November 16.. You WANT to be here. (November 7, 2013) [Daily Kos]

Kansas City Kossack Meetup: this Saturday! 11/16 (November 14, 2013) [Daily Kos]

Yesterday evening, from 7:00 p.m. to 10:30 p.m., twenty-five Kansas City area political activists and denizens of Daily Kos met at the Marriott in Overland Park, Kansas for a discussion of the political world and to share their political experiences.

Our Kansas City – Daily Kos meetup organizer and host – tmservo433.

After food, a brief slide presentation documenting the foibles of right wingnut office holders in Missouri and Kansas, and presentations from two 2014 Kansas campaigns, participants engaged in a wide ranging discussion of their campaign experiences and the political landscape in Missouri and Kansas for 2014 and beyond.

There were a number of new faces (to us) and several old friends going back ten years to Howard Dean’s presidential campaign.

There was commentary on the relative effectiveness and value of get out the vote efforts (phones, door to door, voter registration) and the perceived priorities of centralized/coordinated statewide/national campaigns. It came down to – keep it local, register voters, identify your voters, and drag their sorry asses to the polls on Election Day.

As with anyone who has been active in campaigns over the years there were numerous (and cautionary) horror stories as well as a a few positive ones. The work isn’t done. It never will be.

There was also a significant amount of discussion about engaging office holders and documenting and holding them accountable in their public forums. In the world of the Internets and social media triangulation by the current crop of right wingnuts in office is becoming increasingly difficult for them to pull off. It’s not so easy for them to cater to their restive teabagger base.

Jen Hayden [center], a Daily Kos contributing editor.

Jen Hayden, a Daily Kos contributing editor attended the meetup. In the small world department we sat next to each other in the press pen for then presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama’s speech on patriotism in Independence, Missouri on June 30, 2008.

June 30, 2008 – Scout Finch [Jen Hayden] displays a photo of then candidate Senator

Barack Obama taken from the rope line after his speech on patriotism in Independence, Missouri.

That seems like centuries ago. Yeah, and we’re all still here.

This could be interesting. Kansas City denizens of the Great Orange Satan are organizing a meetup of sorts in Overland Park, Kansas on Saturday, November 16th:

[….]

Overland Park Marriott

10800 Metcalf Avenue · Overland Park, Kansas 66210 USA

Our event will run from 7PM-10PM, and you are free to stay afterwards.

[….]

We do have an schedule of events:

7:00-7:30:  Open seating “Welcome”.   Every attendee will get a packet on local Kansas and Missouri resources (you’ll need to identify as Kansas or Missouri, small table top tags will provide that.. and you get to keep those!)

7:30-8:00: Welcome to Our Meeting, and a Background on the 2014 Elections

8:10-9PM: The State of the States:  Several local PACs, fundraisers and campaigns have been invited to contribute short notes on critical issues in their districts – and why it matters to you.   We have already received some video as well as the key races that they have targeted in 2014.   Note: we will have multiple Microphones, and the campaigns themselves have been told they can openly address us as well, and you can ask questions about your district, I should have all of this organized by then.  Many members of those campaigns are open to discuss with you – ONE ON ONE – how you can help in 2014.

9:00-9:30PM: With the help of some precocious High School and College debaters who heard of this through Facebook, we’re presenting a fairly humorous “Top ways to discuss politics and change some minds over the Thanksgiving turkey without getting stabbed”.  🙂   Hey, it’s Kansas & Missouri.   We have a lot of kids – college and high school who have spent time representing their states and buzzing us with some great ideas, suggestions – some funny, some not so funny but truthful, about the issues that impact both states and how our youth feel about it.   I may end up doing some last minute video editing on this one!

9:30-10PM… Closing.   We are still working with a few PACs who have offered to give us final speakers and I’m working with representatives of Campaigns to leave us with the goals of 2014.   Let’s put it this way: you really want to see what’s going to happen in this half hour, even though I can’t give everything away, it will make it worth your drive.

[….]

Political happenings. This could be fun and interesting.

Uh, oh, this isn’t good.

BREAKING: Daily Kos to Sue Research 2000 for Fraud

Kos, at the Great Orange Satan:

Research 2000: Problems in plain sight

More on Research 2000

I have just published a report by three statistics wizards showing, quite convincingly, that the weekly Research 2000 State of the Nation poll we ran the past year and a half was likely bunk….

Much to his credit Kos is being very open about the situation stating, “…I hereby renounce any post we’ve written based exclusively on Research 2000 polling…”

From 1997 to 2002 I helped run a mom and pop operation that did relatively small sample legislative district polling in Missouri. We were held together with spit, baling wire, and duct tape. Large amounts of caffeine helped, too. The opinion research game is brutal. I’ve always said that the mechanics are straightforward, it’s the logistics that are a nightmare.

I cannot imagine the nightmares and pressure of doing weekly national polls.

Maybe the lesson in this is that if you’re going to commission a lot of polling (and spend a lot of money) do a lot of digging before, during, and after.

This is not good.

Rasmussen conducted a poll of 500 likely voters in Missouri on June 2, 2010. The margin of error is 4.5%.

3* 2010 Missouri Senate Race

Roy Blunt (R) – 45%

Robin Carnahan (D) – 44%

Some other candidate – 4%

Not sure – 6%

Do you think “Some other candidate” might be Chuck Purgason?

Interesting. These Rasmussen numbers have Roy Blunt’s (r – lobbyists) numbers trending down. Maybe it’s about the oil.

11* In the long-term, will the recent Gulf Oil Spill have a devastating impact on the environment, a major impact, a modest impact, a minor impact, or will it have little lasting impact on the environment?

47% Devastating impact on the environment

35% Major impact….

12* Who should pay for the clean-up from the oil leak – the companies who were drilling for oil, the government or both?

81% Companies who were drilling for oil

1% Government

17% Both

1% Not sure….

There is something of a caveat. The founder of the Great Orange Satan has issues with Rasmussen:

….Remember, Rasmussen has two modes — the narrative setting mode, which he’s used to great effect this year to fuel the “Democrats are doomed” narrative, and the “get it right” mode he uses the closer we get to the actual election. Well, we’re not that close to November yet, but apparently he felt threatened by having such massive outliers vis a vis other pollsters. So he rushed new polling more in line with the composite polling trendlines.

It’s kind of hard to set narratives when you become a laughing stock in the political world.

.

Nate Silver also has some issues:

Blast from Rasmussen’s Past

…While 2000 was generally a fairly rough year for pollsters, who had to deal with an unenthusiastic electorate, some third-party challengers, and some late-breaking developments like Bush’s DUI charge, Rasmussen was the worst of the lot, missing by an average of 5.7 points. They also called 7 states wrong.** Some of this was the result of bias, as they were 3.5 points too high on Bush’s margin in the states they surveyed, on average.

Although Rasmussen has certainly gotten a lot of things right, their high pollster rating was mostly based on their strong performance in 2004 and 2006. Their rating is likely to go down now that we’ve found their 2000 data, and are adding in the 2008 data, when their performance was mediocre.

So, we’ll take this interpretation of the senate race in Missouri with a grain of salt.