Missouri State Redistricting a process where 18 people get together, suggest maps, and then the map is drawn by judges. Ok, they’ve accomplished a commission map before in history. But if you’re a betting man, you have to be skeptical of the shot of a 10th vote being found here.

Last week, the Democratic and Republican commissioners for the state House redistricting proposed maps. The maps can be viewed at the OA website. The Republican map (dubbed “minimum changes”) will be reviewed second. The Democratic map will be reviewed in this post.

Partisan election data for both maps is not currently known, but your own knowledge or suspicions can be used to make determinations about the maps provided.

Here is a quick and dirty wall of text about each district. Which Incumbents (who can run in 2012) live in which district. Some data when it’s relevant. And descriptions of what the districts include. Random maps will be provided to highlight certain districts or areas.

Paired incumbent districts are in italics. Open districts are bolded. Some districts are open due to term limits. Some are open due to the pairing of other incumbents.

Overall thoughts on the Democratic map before going into the list: It’s more refined than the Skaggs-Davis map. It seems to have been a competition to pair incumbents in some areas. At the same time, it corrects and prevents certain incumbent-friendly mapping quirks. There are certain district numbering quirks that seem to get worse with this map. But then again, our state highway numbering system involves picking numbers out at random. So it could be worse.

The map pairs 42 incumbents (11 R v. R matches, 5 R v. D matches, 1 D v. D match and 3 R v. R v. R matches), by my count. So this map is clearly aiming to cause a real estate boom amongst legislators.

There are unseemly elements of this map. But as you can see on your own (or will see in a day or so), the Republican “minimal change” map is also a map with some of the same problems. The reality of redistricting is that in order to achieve relatively equal districts, creative lines will be drawn and parties will want their best possible 163 districts.

Some of these districts have no chance of becoming reality. But you gotta put the cards on the table while you can and try to see if they could happen somehow.

On to the list.

HD1 (Parts of Lewis (everything except one square), Marion (Hannibal, part of Palmyra) and Ralls (Saverton)): Redmon (R-Canton) and Shumake (R-Hannibal)

HD2 (all of Clark, Schuyler, and Scotland, parts of Adair (Kirksville)): Open

HD3 (all of Harrison, Mercer, Putnam and Knox, parts of Daviess (part of Pattonsburg)/Grundy (Spickard)/Sullivan (Milan/Green City)/Adair (Novinger)): Wyatt (R-Greencastle) and Guernsey (R-Bethany)

HD4 (Atchison/Holt/Nodaway/Worth, part of Gentry (north of Albany/Stanberry): Thomson (R-Maryville)

HD5 (East St. Charles. West Alton and St. Charles City): Open (May have an incumbent depending on the outcome of the HD15 special election, current HD15 is split between HD5, HD17, and HD19)

HD6 (Parts of Lincoln (Cave), Pike (Eolia), and Warren (Warrenton/Wright City)): Open

HD7 (parts of Lafayette (Lexington/Higginsville), Saline (Marshall), Chariton (Salisbury)): Open (termed-out incumbent)

HD8 (Macon and Shelby. Parts of Lewis (SW corner), Linn (Brookfield/Marcelline) and Marion (West of Palmyra)): Shively (D-Shelbyville)

HD9 (Parts of Monroe (Everything except a SW corner), Ralls (Everything except a NE corner), Marion (Monroe City), Audrain (Vandalia), and Pike (Louisiana/Bowling Green): Quinn (D-Monroe City)

HD10 (DeKalb, parts of Gentry (Albany, King City, Stansberry)/Daviess (Lake Viking)/Andrew (East of Savannah)/Clinton (North of Turney/Gower)/Buchanan (NE Corner)): Klippenstein (R-Maysville)

HD11 (Parts of Lincoln (Ellsberry/Troy)/Pike (Paynesville)): Schieffer (D-Troy)

HD12 (Wentzville. Northwest St. Charles): Open

HD13 (Lake St. Louis, part of Warren): Gatschenberger (R-Lake St. Louis)

HD14 (O’Fallon): Bahr (R-O’Fallon) and Funderburk (R)

HD15 (O’Fallon): Open (termed out incumbent)

HD16 (St. Peters/Cottleville): Open

HD17 (St. Charles): Zerr (R-St. Charles)

HD18 (St. Charles/St. Peters): Open

HD19 (SE St. Charles County): Conway (R) and Parkinson (R)

HD20 (Parts of Audrain (Everything West of Vandalia), Boone (Centralia), Monroe (SW Corner)): Cauthorn (R-Mexico) and Houghton (R-Martinsburg)

HD21 (SW Columbia, Mizzou Campus): Webber (D-Columbia)

HD22 (North Buchanan (all the way to Frederick Ave. in some parts)/Western Andrew (Savannah)): Johnson (R-Country Club)

HD23 (NW Columbia, Rogers St is a border in one part): Open

HD24 (SE Columbia/Southern Boone): Kelly (D-Columbia)

HD25 (NE Columbia): Still (D-Columbia)

HD26 (Howard/Randolph, part of Boone (Harrisburg)): Asbury (R-Higbee)

HD27 (St. Joseph): Conway (D-St. Joseph)

HD28 (Parts of Callaway (South of Fulton)/Osage (East of Westphalia)): Riddle (R)

HD29 (South Buchanan (South St. Joe)/North Platte (Weston/North of Platte City)): Higdon (R-St. Joseph)

HD30 (Platte County, KCMO, Part of Clay): Schieber (R)

HD31 (Southern Clay County, North KC): Swearingen (D)

HD32 (Riverside, parts of Clay County): Open

HD33 (Parkville, Platte City, KCMO): Marshall (R-Parkville)

HD34 (Liberty, KCMO): Open

HD35 (Liberty, Kearney): Neth (R-Liberty) and Berry (R-Kearney)

HD36 (Smithville): Open

HD37 (Downtown KC/Westport): Talboy (D) – 19% AA/15% Hispanic

HD38 (Gladstone, KCMO): Open (pretty sure Silvey is termed out AND running for the State Senate)

HD39 (Lee’s Summit, Grandview, KCMO): Grisamore (R) – 21% AA

HD40 (The Historic Northeast KC/Western Independence): Rizzo (D) – 36% Hispanic

HD41 (North Central KCMO): Open (until a special election?) – 64% AA/18% Hispanic

HD42 (East KC): Open (thanks to Term Limits) – 63% AA

HD43 (East KC, South of Brush Creek): McCann Beatty (D) – 63% AA

HD44 (Brookside): Kander (D) [maybe another incumbent if the winner of the special election to replace Jean Peters-Baker isn’t a one-session placeholder)

HD45 (KCMO, Stateline to 350): Holsman (D-KCMO) and Cross (R-Lee’s Summit) – 36% AA

HD46 (KCMO, Grandview, to 350): McManus (D) – 22% AA

HD47 (Lee’s Summit): Open

HD48 (Central Independence, around MO78): McDonald (D) and Torpey (R)

HD49 (Southern Independence): Open

HD50 (SE KC, Hickman Mills): Open (Term-limits) – 62% AA

HD51 (Northern Independence, Sugar Creek): Anders (D) and Lasater (R)

HD52 (Raytown, KCMO, Lee’s Summit): Open

HD53 (Raytown, KCMO, Lee’s Summit, Blue Springs): Cierpiot (R) and Solon (R)

HD54 (Northeast Jackson, East Clay, West Ray): Open (termed-out incumbent [Nance])

HD55 (Blue Springs/Grain Valley): Lauer (R)

HD56 (Oak Grove, Eastern Jackson County): Open

HD57 (West STL, Wellston): May (D) – 95% AA

HD58 (Caldwell, parts of Ray, Clinton, Daviess, Livingston): Lair (R-Chilicothe)

HD59 (SE STL): Open (termed-out incumbent) – 51% AA

HD60 (Branson and Hollister): Open

HD61 (NE STL and part of STL County): Carter (D) – 94% AA

HD62 (Eastern STL): N
asheed (D) and Hubbard (D) – 93% AA

HD63 (Central STL): Jones (D) – 45% AA

HD64 (Western STL): Carlson (D) – 23% AA

HD65 (SW STL): Kratky (D)

HD66 (STL/STL Co line, SW to Concord): Montecillo (D)

HD67 (South-Central STL): Colona (D) – 22% AA

HD68 (Barry County, part of Stone): Open (term limits)

HD69 (STLCo, Jennings, NE to Spanish Lake): Pierson (D) – 82% AA

HD70 (STLCo, Jennings, NW to Berkeley): Pace (D) – 82%

HD71 (STLCo, Velda City, University City, Pagedale): Smith (D) – 78% AA

HD72 (STLCo, University City, SW to Ladue, Frontenac, and Town and Country): Ellinger (D) and Diehl (R)

HD73 (STLCo, Richmond Heights, SW to Ladue and Kirkwood): Newman (D)

HD74 (STLCo, Old Jamestown?, Florissant outskirts): Webb (D) – 47% AA

HD75 (STLCo, Florissant): Atkins (D) – 20% AA

HD76 (STLCo, Bridgeton/Hazelwood): Spreng (D) – 28% AA

HD77 (STLCo, St. Ann, St. John, Breckenridge Hills, Bel-Ridge): McGeoghehan (D) – 34% AA

HD78 (STLCo, Maryland Heights/Bridgeton/Hazelwood): McNeil (D)

HD79 (Part of Johnson and Lafayette. Warrensburg/Odessa): Open (Termed-out incumbent)

HD80 (STLCo, Ferguson/Black Jack): Taylor (D) – 63% AA

HD81 (STLCo, Spanish Lake, Black Jack): Walton-Gray (D) – 82% AA

HD82 (STLCo, Creve Coeur): Schupp (D)

HD83 (STLCo, Overland/Olivette, Maryland Heights): Nichols (D) – 18% AA

HD84 (STLCo, Manchester/Kirkwood): Open

HD85 (STLCo, STL/STLCo line, Lemay, Oakville, STLCo/JeffCo line): Open

HD86 (STLCo, Chesterfield/Wildwood): Open

HD87 (Parts of Christian, Greene, Webster): Fraker (R)

HD88 (STLCo, Town and Country and Des Peres): Allen (R), McNary (R) and Stream (R)

HD89 (STLCo (Wildwood) and Franklin County (Washington)): Jones (R)

HD90 (NE Jefferson, Murphy): McCaherty (R-Murphy)

HD91 (STLCo, Maplewood SW to Kirkwood): Kirkton (D)

HD92 (Wright County, parts of Douglas/Webster/Laclede): Dugger (R)

HD93 (STLCo, Ballwin south to STLCo/JeffersonCo line): Scharnhorst (R) and Koenig (R)

HD94 (STLCo, Chesterfield, Ballwin, Ellisville): Gosen (R)

HD95 (STLCo, Sunset Hills, Fenton): Leara (R)

HD96 (STLCo, STL/STLco line, Affton, Green Park, Mehlville, Oakville): Sifton (D) and Brown (R)

HD97 (STLCo, Webster Groves and Crestwood): Open

HD98 (Eastern Franklin County): Hinson (R) and Curtman (R)

HD99 (SW St. Charles and SE Warren): Open

HD100 (STLCo, STL/STLCo line, Lemay, Mehlville, Oakville): Haefner (R)

HD101 (Jefferson County, Imperial, Arnold, Barnhart): Wieland (R)

HD102 (Jefferson County, Arnold, SW around MO-21): Open

HD103 (Jefferson County, Herculaneum/Festus): Open

HD104 (Parts of Jefferson, Perry, and Ste. Genevieve Counties. Crystal City/Ste. Genevieve/Perryville): Fallert (D-Ste. Genevieve)

HD105 (NW Jefferson County, Cedar Hill, High Ridge): Open

HD106 (Washington County, part of Crawford and St. Francois counties): Fitzwater (R)

HD107 (St. Francois County, Park Hills, Desloge, Bonne Terre, Farmington): Linda Black (D)

HD108 (SE STL): Hummel (D)

HD109 (Hickory and Dallas Counties. Parts of Laclede, Camden, and Benton Counties): Crawford (R) and Franklin (R)

HD110 (Parts of Jefferson [Hillsboro, De Soto], St. Francois [French Village] and Ste. Genevieve [countryside]): Harris (D)

HD111 (Gasoncade County and NW Franklin County): Dieckhaus (R)

HD112 (Parts of Johnson (Knob Noster), Lafayette (Concordia), Saline (Sweet Springs), Pettis (La Monte), and Benton (Lincoln) Counties): Hoskins (R), Cox (R) and Brown (R)

HD113 (Most of Jefferson City): Barnes (R)

HD114 (Part of Jefferson City, SE Cole County, SW Osage County (Westphalia)): Bernskoetter (R)

HD115 (Parts of Henry (Clinton), Benton (Warsaw), Morgan (Gravois Mills) and Camden (Climax Springs): Largent (R)

HD116 (Most of Miller and Part of Moniteau Counties): Jones (R)

HD117 (Maries County. Parts of Pulaski (Dixon), Phelps (St. James), and Crawford (Cuba/Steelville)): Open (Termed-out incumbent)

HD118 (SW Franklin and NW Crawford): Schatz (R)

HD119 (Cooper County. Parts of Benton, Morgan and Moniteau Counties): Schad (R)

HD120 (Bates County. Parts of Cass (Archie/Drexel), Henry (Windsor), Johnson (Chihowee/Leeton), and Vernon (Metz, Schell City)): Open

HD121 (Eastern Pettis (Sedalia) and SE Saline Counties): Open

HD122 (St. Clair County. Parts of Cedar (El Dorado Springs) and Vernon (Nevada) counties): Open (termed-out incumbent)

HD123 (Cass County. Raymore, Part of Pleasant Hill): Brattin (R)

HD124 (Cass County. Belton, Peculiar): Molendorp (R)

HD125 (Cass County (Harrisonville) and Johnson County (Holden): Open

HD126 (Jasper County. Carthage): Flanigan (R)

HD127 (Jasper County. Joplin): Open

HD128 (Jasper County. Webb City/Joplin): Davis (R)

HD129 (Barton and Dade Counties. Part of Jasper and Lawrence Counties): Kelley (R)

HD130 (Newton County. Neosho): Lant (R), White (R), and Reiboldt (R)

HD131 (McDonald County. Parts of Newton (Seneca, Fairview); Open

HD132 (Montgomery County. Parts of Callaway (Fulton), Lincoln and Warren): Korman (R)

HD133 (Polk County and Parts of Cedar (Stockton): Entlicher (R)

HD134 (Lawrence County): Ruzicka (R)

HD135 (Springfield): Burlison (R)

HD136 (Ozark): Open

HD137 (Springfield): Leach (R) and Hough (R)

HD138 (Springfield): Open (termed out incumbent)

HD139 (Carroll County. Parts of Ray (Richmond), Chariton (Brunswick), Livingston (East of Chillicothe), Linn (West of Brookfield), Grundy (Trenton) and Sullivan (SW Corner): Open

HD140 (Springfield): Denison (R)

HD141 (Nixa): Elmer (R)

HD142 (Parts of Christian, Stone, and Taney Counties): Phillips

HD143 (Ozark County. Parts of Taney and Douglas Counties): Rowland (R)

HD144 (Springfield): Open

HD145 (SW Greene County. Republic): Long (R)

HD146 (Parts of Laclede (Lebanon), Pulaski (Richland), Camden (Montreal), and Texas (Plato) Counties): Open (Termed-out incumbent)

HD147 (Waynesville and Fort Leonard Wood): Open

HD148 (North Greene County. Willard, Strafford): Schoeller (R)

HD149 (Phelps County. Rolla): Frederick (R)

HD150 (Parts of Crawford (Cherryville), Dent (everything except the SE corner), and Texas Counties (Houston)): Smith (R)

HD151 (Parts of Douglas (Eastern), Howell (West Plains), and Texas (Cabool) counties): Open (termed out incumbent)

HD152 (Carter, Iron, Reynolds, and Shannon Counties. Parts of Dent (SE notch, Mark Twain Forest), St. Francois (Iron Mountain Lake), and Wayne (Piedmont) Counties): Open

HD153 (Oregon County. Parts of Howell (Mountain View) and Ripley Counties (Everything West of Fairdealing): Open (term-limits)

HD154 (Parts of Butler (Popular Bluff) and Ripley (Fairdealing)): Cookson (R) and Richardson (R)

HD155 (Parts of Camden (Camdenton, Osage Beach), Morgan (Laurie) and Miller (Lake Ozark) Counties): Open

HD156 (Parts of Cape Girardeau (Jackson) and Scott (Chaffee) counties): Lichtenegger (R)

HD157 (Bollinger County. Parts of Cape Girardeau County and Perry County): Keeney (R)

HD158 (Cape Girardeau and Scott City): Wallingford (R)

HD159 (Parts of Butler (Eastern), Dunklin (Malden outskirts), Stoddard (Dexter), and Wayne (Wappapello) Counties): Hampto
n (R)

HD160 (Parts of Mississippi (NW corner), New Madrid (Northern), Scott (Sikeston), and Stoddard (Eastern) counties): Open (Brandom running for Senate)

HD161 (Madison County. Parts of Butler (North), St. Francois (Doe Run) and Wayne (Most of the county) Counties): Open

HD162 (Parts of Dunklin (Malden) Mississippi (most of the county), New Madrid (most of the county) and Pemiscot (Hayti and all points north) Counties): Hodges (D)

HD163 (Parts of Dunklin (Most of the county)) and Pemiscot (Caruthersville/Hayti Heights): Open (termed out incumbent)

Next-up, the “minimal changes” Republican map. How minimal will the changes be? well, you can trust a phrase used by political people, can’t you?

Any redistricting is a complex process. Drawing 163 districts is an even more complex process. That is the challenge for the House Redistricting Commission. The Commission of 18 members meet today at Pierson Auditorium at UMKC today to take testimony about the drawing of districts.

Before they got to testimony, Chairman Joe Maxwell noted that the Skaggs-Davis Map (which gets referred to throughout testimony) was a map of Trent Skaggs and Marlene Davis and not of the commission. Maxwell also noted that both 7th district members were unable to attend. Commissioner Nick Myers lost his business in the Joplin Tornado and Commissioner Todd Patterson lost his home in the Joplin Tornado.

As for the testimony, here is a quick summary of the points made by the State Representatives and other residents of the Kansas City area to the commission.

Representative Mike Talboy (House Democratic Floor Leader, Kansas City) spoke about the Skaggs-Davis Map as a good start. He suggested preserving the history of the KCMO districts along with suggesting the 18th and Vine area be in a majority African-American district and that the Westside/Westport/Downtown area remain in one district. He was asked about a Hispanic majority/plurality district in KCMO and noted that it was important and that the predominantly Hispanic areas were in Northeast KC and around Southwest Trafficway in western KC.

Senator Kiki Curls (D-Kansas City) also spoke of the Skaggs-Davis map as a good starting point and was questioned about if the current map was just as good for the Eastern Kansas City area.

Rob Willard, an attorney/Republican committeeman from Platte County spoke of his concerns with the Skaggs-Davis Map, such as the number of all-Platte County districts in that map or any map. He also voiced concern over the South KC/Grandview area on the map and voiced support for sticking to the Constitution and Communities of Interest in the map.

Represenative Myron Neth (R-Liberty) noted that the Skaggs-Davis Map splits Liberty and spoke about how his district was 50/50 and the important of communities of interest.

Representative John Rizzo (D-Kansas City) spoke about keeping Northeast KC together, keeping the City Market in his district, and not wanting to dilute the district too much in the expansion. He noted that his district is an Immigrant district, but if it had to expand, it could go west or south. Commissioner JoAnn Karll asked Rizzo if his father was Henry Rizzo (who Karll served in the House with in the 1990s) and indeed he was. I’m unsure if the “I thought she was going to ask how old I was” / Birth Certificate Joke will make the official record though.

Representative Kevin McManus (D-Kansas City) spoke about getting letters from constituents about the redistricting. He noted parts of thhe letter that spoke about wanting Grandview to be in one district, and noted that putting Redbridge KCMO with Greenwood, MO was not too workable of an idea. He cited the Grandview School District as a starting point for a district in the area.

Represenative Jason Holsman (D-Kansas City) expanded on the McManus testimony, submitted a map for that area of Kansas City, and talked about having the Center School District and most of the Hickman Mills School District in a district post-redistricting.

Shirley Smith, Joan Englesfield, and Kevin Quarlo (Carlow?) went back to back to back about Gladstone and having Gladstone be in one district.

Nola Wood, a Republican candidate in 2010 (and 2011 v. Kiki Curls) talked about moving the 45th to take in the surplus from the 46th.

Representative Gary Cross (R-Lee’s Summit) spoke about working with representatives in other districts on the matter of redistricting to try and achieve some sort of reasonable idea about what to do in that part of the county.

Represenative Gail McCann Beatty (D-Kansas City) mentioned that Raytown was split between multiple districts and how they could be in their own district. Also spoke about trying to get 4200 people for her district and how getting the Center School District on the Skaggs-Davis Map wasn’t exactly ideal.

Kyle Yarber, a Gladstone-area State House candidate, added to the chorus of people not wanting to split up Gladstone. Ann Fowler of South KCMO spoke of keeping the districts intact.

Representative Brent Lasater (R-Independence) spoke of his happiness with the 2001 map and suggested moving surplus from his district to the 51st district.

RJ McGather (McGarther?) of 42nd/Prospect spoke about his concern that KCMO would lose a representative in the redistricting.

Former State Representative and State Senator Bob Johnson (R-Lee’s Summit) had the longest testimony of the morning. Johnson represents a group called “Let Missourians Decide” (no word on if they bought that name from a previous group). Johnson spoke of his concern with the lack of competitive districts, noted that 95 of 163 districts had one candidate win over 2/3rds of the vote. He presented a KC area map that his group put together that was meant to both be competitive and represent communities of interest. He voiced displeasure with the Skaggs-Davis Map in Jackson County and that it wasn’t a good starting point for Eastern Jackson County. He mentioned competitive districts are around 55-45. Then the entire thing kind of dragged a bit when the members of the committee found that the Clay and Platte districts are exclusively based on competitiveness and Johnson noted that another team member worked on those districts. Also a discussion over what the 2008 data entailed for his map and their own data ensued.

Sally Miller, a former Republican candidate in the 44th district, followed that up by suggesting that the 44th lose the Southeastern areas and move north.

Chris Medina and former State Rep. Paul Rojas closed by mentioning they liked the Skaggs-Davis Map in Northeastern KC but they disliked the West Side Kansas City mapping there.

All in all, a productive meeting. Lots of use of the phrases “good starting point” and “communities of interest”. The Republican map is still lurking somewhere in the Missouri River. The Democrats are praising the Skaggs-Davis Map but noting areas that will need to be changed. The commission plans to try and get a lot of stuff online in a digital form by June or July. They also note that maps have to be approved by August 18th.

I left and missed out on the Senate hearing, but when I see a transcript, i’ll go over it and note anything of interest there.

So it’s the Redistricting Summer in Missouri. Feel the excitement.

The process of drawing the districts for the Missouri State House of Representatives is a gathering of 18 people (9 Democrats/9 Republicans) from the 9 Congressional Districts to figure out a way to satisfactorily draw 163 State House Districts.

This introduction will be more about an overall history and the possible number of districts per county.

When it comes to the history of the Missouri House districts before one-man one-vote, every county got a Representative, some got more than others. In 1962 and 1964, Jackson County had 13 districts, St. Louis County had 14 districts, St. Louis City had 15 districts, Jasper/Jefferson/Boone had 2 districts, and Buchanan/Clay/Greene Counties had 3 districts. The other 106 counties had 1 member. Predictably, these unequal districts were struck down by 1965.

Fun note: If Missouri’s House district size were based on Worth County’s population right now, the Missouri House would have 2758.6 members. Presumably they would have the same amount of office space in that scenario.

So, what did the first map look like?

Aw, the simpler times when the deviation between district populations was still relatively high, allowing for a lot of one county/two county/three county districts.

Obviously quite a few incumbents from the old system were paired. Such as Mike Bauer of Harrison County, who defeated incumbent Representatives from Mercer and Schuyler counties in the Republican Primary before defeating an incumbent Democrat from Putnam County in the General Election for the 90th District. Presumably the only time that one man has defeated three incumbent Missouri State Legislators in one election cycle.

Worth noting that they just went with giving Jackson County and St. Louis the first 77 District numbers, while having an almost-logical district number sequence in the rest of the state. Don’t worry, it changes and gets more random later.

Here’s the 1973-1983 Map

This time around, they give Northeast Missouri the top district numbers (a sequence that has remained in place for the last 40 years) and the districts start to cut through more counties to achieve the ideal population size.

The 1983-1993 map did not copy very well to the Missouri Blue Book:

Then for the 1993-2003 map, they attempt to draw the Jackson/St. Louis district lines in a statewide.

The 2003-2013 map is the map that will be referred to the most in creating the 2013-2023 map.

As you can see, the wonders of population gains in some parts of the state lead to out of sequence district numbers. Such as HD62 and HD68 being in Southwest Missouri while every other House District in the 60s is in St. Louis. It seems that with every redistricting, the Missouri House District numbers become more randomly placed like Missouri State Highway designations.

So, who’s gonna get a lot of seats in the 2011 redistricting? There’s a map for that too.

As you can see, most counties in the state don’t have enough population to make up a majority of a House District. There are quite a few which could make up a majority of the people in a district, if drawn like that. 13 Districts have enough population for one district entirely in their county, with three more counties (Webster, Barry, Laclede) having that ability with a high deviation in district populations.

109 counties didn’t have their number of ideal seats change more than 0.5. But amongst the big winners and losers?

Winners: St. Charles County (8.27 to 9.81), Clay County (5.36 to 6.04), and Christian County (1.58 to 2.11).

Losers: Jackson County (19.08 to 18.35), St. Louis City (10.14 to 8.69), and St. Louis County (29.61 to 27.19)

So in St. Louis (County and City), the number of seats will drop from just under 40 to just under 36. Jackson County could wind up with 18 seats completely in the county and one that goes somewhere else. The Suburban areas gain and the potential for more creative line drawing* exists.

(* – Creative Line Drawing is when the district looks bizarre while having no political reason to look so bizarre.)

The ideal district size of 36,742 is only a suggestion. The ideal district size for the 2003-2013 districts was 34,326. But some districts were 1,000 people below that ideal size and some where a 1,000 people above that ideal size. With the realities of precinct sizes and boundaries, the populations may differ within legally acceptable lines.

The task of Missouri House Redistricting will involve a lot more than just creating 163 districts near the ideal size of 36,742 (give or take a few percentage points where necessary). Those realities are going to come out a few more over the summer until the map is finished and prospective candidates are forced to change their cards to reflect the new number of the district they’re campaigning to Represent.

Some things that I am willing to bet happen

a) There’ll still be some out of sequence district numbers (extra points if they just put another STL-area district number in Christian County)

b) There won’t be much crossing of the Missouri River to create a district. As you can see, there never has been much taste for that, outside of Franklin County on one map, and Saline/Howard Counties in the 1990s.

c) There will be paired incumbents. But there’ll also be incumbents coincidentally in districts with termed-out incumbents.

d) Nobody will get everything they want. Not every legislator will like the map. If they do, then the EPA should step in and make sure our tap water hasn’t been spiked.

e) You’ll probably hear the phrase “Missouri Appellate Apportionment Commission” sometime in the process of drawing the districts. Maybe even to the point where six appellate court judges draw the districts if the committee can’t agree.

That’s an introduction, to show you where maps have evolved from and which areas will gain or lose members next year. With the Missouri State Legislature adjourned (thankfully), this may be one of the more interesting political things to go on for a few weeks. At least until candidates start announcing for higher offices.

It takes special talent to be in the House majority and see your amendment lose on a floor vote. It takes even more talent to have it happen twice in one day, on two votes in a row.

Using that criteria, our favorite Republican legislator Denny Hoskins (CPA/R-Warrensburg) can feel talented.

One Republican tactic to cut spending is to slice off random amounts from the budgets of directors and pretend that it adds up to something.

Knowing that, it’s no surprise during the HB2008 debate that Ryan Silvey would propose cutting the General Revenue Fund contribution to the Director of the Department of Public Safety from 1,056,555 to 1,035,764. That passed on a voice vote.

Then Denny Hoskins proposed cutting it some more, all the way down to 979,305, and he lost, 76 to 75. Multiple Republicans voted and i’m sure good times were had by all.

Then it was time to poke at HB2009 (Department of Corrections). Ryan Silvey (who superglued a mic to his hand and passed 7 amendments yesterday) proposed cutting the Office of the Director for the Department of Corrections from 4,048,955 to 3,997,743. That was approved via a voice vote.

Then Denny Hoskins proposed cutting it some more, all the way down to 3,775,135, and he lost, 88 to 61. Not even Amendment aficionado Ryan Silvey voted for this. I’m pretty sure that with Denny’s amendments and the process of cutting costs on these things, a few dozen people had their jobs saved from a CPA on a mission.

You can read this for the overview of events.

So after losing twice on two straight recorded roll calls, Denny Hoskins stopped proposing amendments for some reason. Proving that no good thing really ever threepeats. He hasn’t had such a lousy day since the property tax hilarity.

Don’t worry Denny, at least you’re more popular than Slot Machine Mark Parkinson. So, in conclusion, I think I’m off the Christmas card list.

Rep. El-Amin (D-St. Louis) pled guilty to charges that he accepted $2100 from a gas station owner to lobby the city of St. Louis on his behalf.

Here’s a few quick observations

1) Had the gas station owner donated $2100 to El-Amin’s campaign committee, would there be charges and a guilty plea today? I’d guess the answer to that question is “no”. The reality of the Missouri campaign contribution laws is that it’s essentially no-holds-barred for an individual. That won’t be addressed as much as it should be because someone stupidly violated the law. Missouri’s campaign finance system is a brown paper bag and the promises made are a bit more subtle than bribery.

2) The “communicate by paper, the place is bugged” strategy did not work whatsoever. I’m not entirely sure that there is enough space in-between the walls of the 16 office clusters to fit a quality bug anyways.

3) I’d hope that T. D. would officially resign by around 5 or so today. It would be far more ideal for the people in his district to have an election in February (although barring some mistake, the general election will be boring).

3b) If you plead guilty, you should be automatically out of your office anyways. Just to speed the process up a few hours.

4) Wow, this hasn’t been a good summer for the reputation of the Democrats in the capital. It hurts even more when the wounds are self-inflicted. Electorally, most MO voters probably haven’t heard of Smith, Brown, and El-Amin. But it’s not helpful to the goal of 82 to keep having these things happen. These things drag down good people running as Democrats who want to change the way things are done in politics.