Candidacy confirmed: Sam Page will be running for the State Senate in the 24th district. The article mentions Jake Zimmermann and Barbara Fraser as speculative opponents for Page in a primary.
A possible 24th district candidate with a campaign committee for the seat, who didn’t get mentioned in that article: Michael Corcoran. No respect. No regard. Friends of Michael G. Corcoran amended it’s SoCO (Statement of Committee Organization) and everything too.
Lots of 6th District Republican candidates?: Danie Moore (R-Fulton) has a committee, so does Bill Deeken (R-Jefferson City), Mark Bruns (R-Jefferson City), and Harry Otto (R-Jefferson City). Moore was in the House from 2001 to 2009, leaving via term limits (and losing a Congressional campaign in 2008). Bruns and Deeken are termed out of the House. Otto is the Chairman of the Jefferson City Chamber of Commerce. 42% of SD6 residents live in Cole County, 24% live in Callaway County. The rest live in the three counties to the South/Southwest of Cole County.
Possible 30th district Democratic candidate: Sara Lampe (D-Springfield) could be a candidate for the opened seat centered around Springfield. I’ll note that the source I read this on also claimed Lampe as “ultra-liberal” and derided her as having “just enough crazy” in her to press for the end of the War on Margarine. So don’t roast me if the rumor is unfounded. If Rep. Lampe decides to run, she might face Rep. Bob Dixon. Lampe is not termed out (she is termed out in 2012). Dixon is termed out. BJ Marsh’s campaign committee is organized for this race as well, although one has to wonder if someone who just endorsed Jay Nixon can handle a Republican primary.
Republican Duel in the 28th?: Skimming the list of committees produces a list of three Republican state reps in the 28th Senate District. 28th District Senator Delbert Scott is termed out. The Republicans with committees are Ed Emery (R-Lamar), Tom Self (R-Cole Camp), and Larry Wilson (R-Flemington). In regards to the 28th, Emery represents Barton and parts of Polk County (18642 people). Wilson’s district (34253 people) is entirely in the 28th. Part of Tom Self’s district is in the 28th (23741 people). So going by pure population, Wilson looks like he has a good shot. Cedar and Henry counties, along with parts of Pettis and Polk Counties are not represented by prospective candidates. The entirety of the 28th is represented by Republicans in the General Assembly.
that Margaret Donnelly might run for Joan Bray’s seat in 2010. But I haven’t heard anything to that effect recently.
The 34th seems to be our best pickup opportunity.
I’d need to check to see how much better Obama did in the 30th than in Greene County (he narrowly lost Springfield, IIRC).
Depending on our nominee, the 2nd and 6th could make the list too.
Our top defense is probably the 16th (Barnitz). Someone interesting could show up in the 18th (Shoemyer), but then again, incumbency and the Dem lean of parts of that district may cause a person or two to wait it out. The 22nd will probably be an easy win (it was only a pickup in 2006 since Alter won a complete fluke).
I think that with the current split of the Senate (23-11) and the seats up (10 Rep/7 Dem). In order to win the Senate, we have to flip six seats, in a year that may not be entirely great. Yeah, that’s not entirely promising. But if the split is around 20-14 or better in 2010, we could pick up the Senate in 2012 with another good year. Although, keep in mind that I think the Senate was 20-14 going into the 2008 elections.