Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) at the Governor’s Ham Breakfast at the Missouri State Fair in Sedalia, August 14, 2008.
Public Policy Polling [pdf] released a poll with a sample of 867 Missouri voters taken on January 10th and 11th. The margin of error is 3.3%.
…Carnahan leads Congressman Roy Blunt 45-44, former Senator Jim Talent 47-43, and
former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman 47-36…
It’s a good start.
I’m certain we’ll soon start to see the campaign mechanisms gearing up. Think of all that money flowing into Missouri. The FEC campaign finance reports might get very interesting what with all those republicans cogitating on the prospect of running.
The partisan splits for the poll: 38% D, 35% R, 27% Other
45% of voters view Robin Carnahan favorably, 36% view her unfavorably. Robin is +16 with women and +1 with men (with 24% of women and 14% of men unsure of how they view Robin Carnahan).
45% of voters view Jim Talent favorably, 39% view him unfavorably. Talent is +7 with women and +6 with men (but 20% of women and 10% of men are not sure how they view Jim Talent)
40% of voters view Roy Blunt favorably, 43% view him unfavorably. Blunt is
2 with women and4 with men (with 24% of women not sure and 10% of men not sure)36% of voters view Sarah Steelman favorably, 29% view her unfavorably. Steelman is +7 with both genders, but 41% of women and 28% of men are unsure of how they feel about Sarah Steelman.
As for the matchups
Robin Carnahan v. Talent: Robin wins by 11 with women, Talent wins by 4 with men
Robin Carnahan v. Blunt: Robin wins by 8 with women, Blunt wins by 5 with men
Robin Carnahan v. Steelman: Robin wins by 16 with women and 6 with men
Favorably amongst people categorized as “Other” voters
Robin Carnahan: 40/33 favorable
Jim Talent: 48/32 favorable
Roy Blunt: 37/42 unfavorable
Sarah Steelman: 42/19 favorable
And some partisan split info for matchups
Robin Carnahan v. Jim Talent: Talent wins Other voters 42/38, Robin picks up 12% of Republicans.
Robin Carnahan v. Roy Blunt: Blunt wins other voters 44/37, Robin picks up 14% of Republicans.
Robin Carnahan v. Sarah Steelman: Robin wins other voters 38/36 and picks up 13% of Republicans.
In other news.. it’s 21 months and a few weeks until election day. Still some time to see poll numbers go up or down.
Blunt is the only one with a net negative favorability rating, yet matches up best with Carnahan. Might have something to do with the base in SW MO, where Carnahan probably cuts in better against everyone else.