Bet you didn’t know that having lots of money can be a disadvantage in a state senate race, did you? As of thirty days after the primary, Eric Schmitt (pictured at left), hoping to hold Gibbons’ seat for the Rs in SD 15, had raised $268,927, whereas the Democrat, Jim Trout, had only raised $50,307. So the Republican had more than four times as much money. Guess which one of them thinks too much cash can hurt a candidate.

Trout asked me: “What the heck is he raising $268,000 for a senate race for? The fact that he’s got that much doesn’t unhinge me.” Now before you dismiss that opinion as sour grapes, consider his point of view:

Early on, he designed a plan for this race, and he’s raised enough money to run it according to plan. As far as he’s concerned, a candidate with money to burn will burn it unwisely. It’s called throwing money at a problem.

Trout, on the other hand, canvasses every day with five volunteers. Not only does seeing him and his workers at the door familiarize Kirkwood and Webster Groves residents with him, all those contacts also yield data he can use for targeted mailings.

And in the process of wearing his shoes out, he’s noticed a difference between this campaign and his 2006 House race: it’s fairly common for Republicans to tell him that they no longer believe in the Republican platform. That’s something he wasn’t hearing two years ago.  

Democrats who worked the Obama booth at the September Greentree festival in Kirkwood also noted the shift in this once staunch Republican stronghold. Kathie Davis posted this on the West County Dems listserv:

At Greentree Festival in Kirkwood our Obama booth was mobbed by supporters. We sold over 200 yard signs, about 70 bumper stickers, 40-50 window signs, and several hundred buttons. We also registered about 100 new voters.

Many people mentioned to us that the Republican booth was not busy and hardly anyone was there.

Before Michael Bersin reminds me that the plural of anecdote is not data, let me say that both Kirkwood and especially Webster Groves have been trending Democratic in the last two election cycles. In Trout’s Webster Groves house race in 2006, he lost by only 249 votes. Next door, in 2005, the Kirkwood seat fell into Democratic hands for the first time in fifty years. The next year, Rick Stream won that seat back for the GOP from Jane Bogetto, but it was close: 51.2% to 48.8%.

Jeanne Kirkton is running a strong race for an open seat in the district where Jim ran, and she looks likely to win. That’ll help him, as will the fact that the senate seat is also open. In fact, the stars are so well aligned that fundraising has gotten easier. Since that squeaker of a primary against Steve Eagleton, Trout has been raising twice as much money as Schmitt. He’s still way behind in that category, but he’s unconcerned about it.

Trout pointed out that we’ll know after November 4th whether all these omens mean what we hope they do. “I’m running against a young alderman who’s got all this hair.” Jim’s betting that voters are less concerned with hair than with the way Republicans have been burning the furniture to keep the house warm.