Another form of March madness is about to conclude at Tuesday at 5pm. That being the filing for offices.
When we last met on this topic the overall field included 59 unchallenged Democrats and 45 unchallenged Republicans. Currently those numbers are 57 unchallenged Democrats and 37 unchallenged Republicans. For reference, that’s 57 of 71 and 37 of 92.
So which Republican seats just got opposition this time around?
That, and more is under the fold.
[And a welcome to people reading this through the link posted on MyDD. But I will disagree with Clarkent since I’m not entirely sure if we can call this “record numbers”. We’re just clubbing Republicans overall in the number of candidates.]
Rick Oswald of Langdon filed in HD4 on Tuesday afternoon to face incumbent state Rep. Mike Thomson of Maryville in a rematch of 2006. Back in 2006, Thomson won the open seat by a 64/36 margin.
David Hurst of Lake St. Louis filed on Wednesday afternoon to run in HD13. This election wil fill the seat opened by Bob Onder’s Congressional candidacy. Back in 2006, Onder was unopposed for election to the open seat. So, that’s an improvement over 2006.
Bill Whitmore of O’Fallon filed on Monday afternoon to face HD19 Rep. Cynthia Davis of O’Fallon. Davis won 58/42 over Mike Morris in 2006.
Tom Niffen of Liberty filed on Wednesday morning to face St. Rep. Tim Flook in HD34. Flook defeated Niffen by a 59/41 margin in 2006. Flook has held this seat since 2005.
Mike O’Donnell of Blue Springs filed on Thursday afternoon to take on Bryan Pratt in HD55. Pratt won 62/38 over Patrick Pierce in 2006.
Chris Ruggles of Lee’s Summit filed on Friday to face HD56 incumbent Brian Yates. Yates was unopposed in 2006.
Phil Bognar of Fenton filed on Tuesday to face freshman Rep. Dwight Scharnhorst in HD93. Scharnhorst defeated Jane Bogetto for this seat in 2006.
Linda Marie Crane of Greenfield filed on Thursday to face Ed Emery in HD126.
Also, this week, two more Democrats recieved opponents. Mike Austin of Ethel filed for the chance to face Tom Shively in HD8. Shively narrowly defeated Kathy Chinn to win the seat in 2006. As well, Nick Haul filed in HD100 to fave Sue Schoemehl.
For the sake of comparison, there were 36 uncontested Republicans with three filing days left (3/24/06, 3/27/06, 3/28/06). And there were 38 uncontested Republicans left going into yesterday morning. So a slight move backwards overall.
But at this time in 2006, there were 53 uncontested Democrats of the 66 seats up that year.
After three more days of filing in 2006, the totals were 41 uncontested Democrats and 18 uncontested Republicans. So in the span of three days in 2006, 18 Republican-held and 12 Democrat-held seats were filled.
So, let’s take a look at the uncontested Republican seats.
In St. Louis County, only Allen Icet of Wildwood (HD84), the 88th House District (currently held by the termed-out Neal St. Onge) and Jim Avery of Crestwood are uncontested. Timothy Jones was unopposed in 2006 and he will be opposed by former St. Rep/frequent candidate George Weber. (Yep, Weber was a state rep from 1965 to 1967).
Icet and St. Onge were unopposed in 2006. Two candidates filed in the last 2 days for a shot at facing Avery.
In the general St. Louis area, there are two other open Republican seats.
HD12 (Funderburk) and HD14 (Smith) are both open at this moment. Funderburk won 58/42 over Sandra Lesh to fill the seat opened by Sherman Parker’s badly thought-out primary challenge of Todd Akin. Smith won 60/40 over Douglas Broste.
HD13 and HD109 were both uncontested in 2008 and contested now. But they’re also both open now.
Now in West-Central Missouri, we get into a longer list.
Loehner (Koeltztown, HD112), Bruns (Jeff City, HD113), Deeken (Jeff City, HD114), Schad (Versailles, HD115), Self (Cole Camp, HD116), Jones (California, HD117), Wilson (Flemington, HD119), Pollock (Lebanon, HD146), and Day (Dixon, HD148) don’t have opponents so far. Only Self and Wilson were unopposed by Dems in 2006 (of the people listed).
Another breakdown of those 10 Republicans
Won 50-59% in 2006: Bruns (56/44)
Won 60-69%: Loehner (60/40), Schad (69.8/30.2), Jones (69.8/30.2), Day (68/32)
Won 70%+: Deeken (72/28), Wilson (75/25 over a Libertarian candidate), Pollock (74/26)
So.. not exactly a blue group of seats. But hopefully history holds up enough to get some of these guys an opponent or two. As well, these seats are close enough to Jeff City to make the whole trip to the Capitol a short one.
Now, up in Northwest Missouri, there are still two unopposed Republicans. Those two are HD28 Rep. Rob Schaaf of St. Joseph and HD30 Rep. Jason Brown of Platte City. Schaaf had an opponent in 2006, until that opponent withdrew in September. The Party was unable to find a replacement. Jared Welch recieved 44% against Brown in 2006.
And put on your seatbelts and keep arms out of the aisles, because we’re entering another area with a lot of unopposed Republicans.
Unopposed Republicans in Southwest MO: Sater (HD68, Cassville), Open seat (HD127, held by Hunter*), Stevenson (HD128, Webb City), Richard (HD129, Joplin), Wilson (HD130, Neosho), Ruestman (HD131, Joplin), Parson (HD133, Bolivar), Viebrock (HD134, Republic), Schoeller (HD139, Willard), Dixon (HD140, Springfield), Wasson (HD141, Nixa), Weter (HD142, Nixa), Cunningham (HD145, Rogersville), Wells (HD147, Cabool), and Franz (HD151, West Plains)
That’s 15 of the 37 seats right there.
Stevenson, Richard, Parson, Weter, and Cunningham were unopposed in 2006. Candidates filed in the last two days in HD126, HD127, HD130, HD131, HD140, and HD151. So, that’s slightly encouraging when it comes to recent history.
Of the currently uncontested Reps (who were contested in 2006), here’s a breakdown of their 2006 showings
Under 2/3rds of the vote: Viebrock 63/33; Schoeller 54/43; Dixon 63/34; Wells 62/38;
Over 2/3s of the vote: Hunter (HD127), 69/31; Wilson, 72/28; Ruestman, 69/31; Wasson 69/31; Franz 71/29
[* – the previous diary did not note this open seat, due to an oversight]
And we close out in Southeast Missouri where 6 of 9 Republican seats are uncontested.
Those six are Tilley (HD106, Perryville), Dethrow (HD153, Alton), Kingery (HD154, Poplar Bluff), Lipke (HD157, Jackson), Open seat (HD158, Cape Girardeau), and Brandom (HD160, Sikeston).
Tilley and Lipke were unopposed in 2006. As for the rest..
Kingery won with over 70%. Brandom held an open seat with 58%. Cooper won with 61% and Kasten won with 51% in HD158.
Dethrow, on the other hand, won 53/47 over Kenny Burke.
So the current batch of 37 seats is far more than just heavily Republican seats. Quite a few of them can be competitive.
So, time to go to the maps.
First, the current status map
Open seats in Orange or Skyblue
Pink Squares were uncontested Rep seats in 2006
Dark Red/Blue seats are unopposed
And we know the partisan color scheme too.
And here’s the 2006 results map
Overall, we’re looking good in the scheme of turnout. That’s even being noted by House Democratic leader Paul LeVota, who pointed out the number of contested Dem incumbents and Rep incumbents.
Right now, there’s 30 uncontested Dems in the STL radius (of 34 Dems). There’s 13 uncontested Dems out of the 14 in Jackson County. Back in 2006, 33 of 49 Dems were uncontested in those areas. 8 of the (then) 17 Dems were uncontested in the ‘outstate’ area. Right now, those numbers are 14 of 23.
So barring a huge rush of Republicans, there will likely be over 40 uncontested Dems, and probably 45.
[As for the flooding: I checked, and while I can see how that might factor into people’s ability to get to
Jeff City, I don’t think it’ll do much. I do wish for the best to get the flooding down around the Arnold area and in Southeast Missouri.]
As for uncontested Reps. As noted, 15 of 37 are in the Southwest Missouri area. That number goes to 30 of 37 if you add Southeast Missouri and West Central Missouri to the list (where Republicans hold 48 of 59 seats).
A wider POV of the Dem/Rep races, and primaries, is due sometime after the filing closes. With quite a few primary battles due for the STL and KC areas, it should be interesting to see how that shapes up.
Right now, I think our shot in November is good.
But if history holds up, there’ll be quite a few people showing up to run on Monday and Tuesday.