Carla Keough (D), challenger in the 125th Legislative District
After meeting Carla Keough and hearing her speak on the day she filed for the 125th Legislative District race I thought I needed to take a look at the recent history of legislative campaigns in this district. In January I first took notice of the district after reading Barney Fisher’s (r-125) comments on Chris Benjamin’s campaign announcement for the 31st Senate District.
This particular race could be fun.
Carla Keough is an energetic community activist and, by all accounts, a formidable fundraiser.
What happened in the race in 2006?:
State of Missouri General Election
Tuesday, November 07, 2006State Representative – District 125 – Summary
Precincts Reporting 29 of 29Fisher, Barney REP 7,679 59.9%
Wells, Timothy L. (Tim) DEM 5,131 40.1%
Total Votes 12,810
(by county)
BATES – Fisher 3,146 Wells 2,550
VERNON – Fisher 4,533 Wells 2,581
[emphasis added]
From Timothy Wells’ final campaign finance report with the Missouri Ethics Commission:
Detailed Summary of Committee Disclosure Report
Committe[e]: ELECT WELLS STATE REPRESENTATIVE9. TOTAL ALL RECEIPTS THIS ELECTION(SUM 1B + 7A – 8A) $6,749.97
15. TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION (SUM 10B + 14A) $6,926.18
35. TOTAL INDEBTEDNESS AT THE CLOSE OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD $3,278.33
[emphasis added]
Oh, my.
Let’s look at what Barney Fisher spent in 2006 – from his final report to the Missouri Ethics Commission:
Detailed Summary of Committee Disclosure Report
Committe: CITIZENS FOR BARNEY FISHER 20089. TOTAL ALL RECEIPTS THIS ELECTION(SUM 1B + 7A – 8A) $34,991.12
15. TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION (SUM 10B + 14A) $33,044.36
35. TOTAL INDEBTEDNESS AT THE CLOSE OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD $0.00
Pine board, meet buzz saw. Fisher out raised and outspent Wells almost 5 to 1. For approximately a 2500 vote margin. Hmmm. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? At least 5100 people (more in a presidential election year) are going to vote for the Democratic candidate no matter what. The republicans control the General Assembly and the governor’s mansion. The economy sucks. It will continue to do so up to the election. Who are the voters going to blame?
This is doable.
Let’s take a look at Barney Fisher’s latest campaign finance filing (from January 2008) with the Missouri Ethics Commission:
Detailed Summary of Committee Disclosure Report
Committe[e]: CITIZENS FOR BARNEY FISHER 20089. TOTAL ALL RECEIPTS THIS ELECTION(SUM 1B + 7A – 8A) $5,870.00
15. TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION (SUM 10B + 14A) $5,158.54
28. MONEY ON HAND AT THE CLOSE OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD (SUM 25 + 26 – 27) $711.46
[emphasis added]
Do you get the feeling that Barney Fisher wasn’t expecting a challenge in 2008. Heh. If Carla Keough raises the cash, watch out.
Let’s look at Barney Fisher’s first race:
State of Missouri General Election
Tuesday, November 02, 2004State Representative – District 125 – Summary
Precincts Reporting 46 of 46Berry, Larry DEM 7,300 46.4%
Fisher, Barney REP 8,433 53.6%
Total Votes 15,733
(by county)
BATES – Berry 3,804 Fisher 3,049
VERNON – Berry 3,496 Fisher 5,384
[emphasis added]
From Larry Berry’s final campaign finance report with the Missouri Ethics Commission in 2004:
Detailed Summary of Committee Disclosure Report
Committe[e]: WE THE PEOPLE FOR LARRY BERRY9. TOTAL ALL RECEIPTS THIS ELECTION(SUM 1B + 7A – 8A) $33,642.50
15. TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION (SUM 10B + 14A) $33,494.50
[emphasis added]
The same for Barney Fisher in 2004:
9. TOTAL ALL RECEIPTS THIS ELECTION(SUM 1B + 7A – 8A) $30,160.00
5. TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION (SUM 10B + 14A) $31,414.69
Hmm. A rough parity in campaign spending. And a 1133 vote margin. What does that tell you?
2002 wasn’t a particularly good year for Democratic candidates. Remember Jean Carnahan?
State of Missouri General Election
Tuesday, November 05, 2002State Representative – District 125 – Summary
Foursha, Sam DEM 6,023 48.4%
King, Jerry REP 6,413 51.6%
Total Votes 12,436
(by county)
BATES – Foursha 2,051 King 3,360
VERNON – Foursha 3,972 King 3,053
[emphasis added]
What went on here? Could it be a tad bit of incumbent fatigue?
State of Missouri General Election
Tuesday, November 07, 2000State Representative – District 125 – Summary
Foursha, Sam DEM 6,522 44.9%
King, Jerry R. REP 8,006 55.1%
Total Votes 14,528
(by county)
BATES – Foursha 2,936 King 4,752
CASS – Foursha 834 King 1,108
VERNON – Foursha 2,752 King 2,146
My, oh my. Look at the change in the margin over two years.
I like the idea that Democrats are challenging republicans everywhere.
Raise money and run strong and smart campaigns – lightning could strike or the stars could align. If that happens say “Hello!” to Speaker Paul LeVota (D).