Whilst trolling for poll data I came across this SurveyUSA 600 sample poll from Iowa taken between January 4th and 6th. I was struck by the approval numbers for dubya and the issues crosstabs. More on that on the flip.
Why Iowa? I’m intrigued by this polling after the caucuses.
The margin of error is 3.8%. The poll was sponsored by KAAL-TV Rochester-Mason City-Austin.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
All
31% – approve
67% – disapprove
2% – not sureDemocrats [46% of sample]
4% – approve
96% – disapprove
1% – not surerepublicans [31% of sample]
74% – approve
24% – disapprove
3% – not sureIndependents [22% of sample]
29% – approve
68% – disapprove
3% – not sure
The disapproval number from self-identified Democrats is remarkable. One can’t get much closer to universal derision within a group.
For months voters in Iowa have been inundated with the message from various campaigns that things ain’t right. I wonder about the impact of this nationally on dubya’s numbers in the coming months.
Nothing fails like failure.
Top Issues for Next President (dubya’s approval numbers within each group)
Economy [23% of sample]
27% – approve
72% – disapprove
1% – not sureHealth Care [20% of sample]
16% – approve
82% – disapprove
2% – not sureIraq [17% of sample]
19% – approve
80% – disapprove
1% – not sureEnvironment [8% of sample]
14% – approve
86% – disapprove
0% – not sureSocial Security [5% of sample]
30% – approve
66% – disapprove
4% – not sureEducation [4% of sample]
21% – approve
78% – disapprove
1% – not sureTerrorism [10% of sample]
82% – approve
17% – disapprove
1% – not sureImmigration [9% of sample]
55% – approve
40% – disapprove
5% – not sure
The issue for the republican base is fear. Terrorism and immigration – that’s all the republican candidates have got.
Unless Ron Paul is their nominee or the republican candidates start running against dubya’s legacy I can’t see how the republican nominee avoids a crushing defeat come November.
Well, okay, Ron Paul would be a humiliating defeat, but for other reasons.
I can’t shake a nagging discomfort that we could blow it again. The Republican nominee won’t be Dubya himself, and though the R brand is severely damaged, I’m concerned about Clinton and Obama as possible nominees. Can either one of them beat even a weakened Republican nominee? Edwards looks able, according to polls, to handily beat any of them. But the other two don’t poll as well against the R candidates.
I find Hillary’s manner charming, but I dislike her policies and her indebtedness to the uberclass. That’s me. But many voters hate her personally–just can’t stand her. That puzzles me, but it’s so. She could have trouble winning.
In contrast to Clinton, everybody likes Obama personally, but people are hypocrites when it comes to race. Many will say that they like him and that they think it’s a good idea to have a black man running for the top spot. But if the race were to be at all close between him and whoever the R candidate turns out to be, lots of those people will vote for the white guy in the privacy of the voting booth.
I realize that what I’ve said sounds like the triangulating that got Democratic voters to select the “electable” candidate, Kerry, in 2004. But here’s the difference. Not only is Edwards electable, his policies are progressive. But I’ll be mighty surprised if he gets the nomination.
So, while the numbers above look like the R’s are set for a crushing defeat–and I hope it happens–I feel far from cocky about next November.
And by the way, 82% still approve Bush’s handling of the terrorism issue? What a crock!
“…Put another way – 8.2% of the people in the sample approve of dubya’s job performance (in general) and think that
immigrationterrorism is the most important issue that the next president will face…”