Bloomberg News released a story today that Bin Laden will be releasing a video to address the American people on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks. The last time Bin Laden released a video was October 29th of 2004 which was only a few days ahead of the presidential election.
I predict that Bin Laden will deliver a message that will be designed to compel Americans to keep our troops in Iraq. He will likely say quite the opposite, but the intent will be to anger us into defying him by supporting the war.
Here is why-
Here is why-
1)- Al Qaeda’s greatest tool for recruiting new members is that American soldiers are occupying an Arab state.
As long as we are in Iraq, he can continue to enjoy an influx of new zealots driven by the idea that we are at war with Islam. The life blood of Al Qaeda depends on our ongoing commitment to stay in Iraq.
2)- There was no Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia in Iraq until after we went to war in Iraq.
Bin Laden was driven into obscurity after the 911 attacks. The franchising of Al Qaeda was largely the result of our invasion of Iraq. When Abu Musab al-Zarqawi announced his allegiance to Al Qaeda in Iraq it was an enormous boost for the terrorists in hiding. It meant that despite their own inability to operate freely, Al Qaeda would be visible and actively publicised by the media covering the Iraq war.
3) Bin Laden’s goal is to destroy the US financially.
When Bin Laden released the last video in 2004, he made it clear that his goal was to destroy the United States by causing us financial hardship. If our troops were to pull out of Iraq now, the $3 billion dollars per week we are spending would no longer be stacking up our debt. Although we have apparently weathered the immediate impact of the 911 attacks, the expense resulting from our military response has reached staggering proprtions. Twice since 911 congress has voted to lift the ceiling on spending, largely due to the Iraq campaign. In 6 years we have gone from operating at a nearly break even rate to (9) trillions of dollars in debt. That debt financed mostly by China and Saudi Arabia starts coming due this year…with interest. Meanwhile, rather than reducing our debt we have compounded the problem by removing tax revenues to pay for it. As long as we are in Iraq, Bin Laden knows that his war against our economy will continue moving forward.
4) Being over extended in Iraq has kept us from dealing with the build up of Al Qaeda in the tribal region of Pakistan.
While we have been mired down in Iraq with our troops strained and our resources drawn thin, Al Qaeda has been recruiting and organizing along the western border of Pakistan in an area called Warizistan. This is the area where Bin Laden is proported to be hiding. It is also where the three terrorists arrested in Germany yesterday received their training. Although we are being told that Iraq is the war on terror, the terrorists are protected by our inability to deal with anything else.
I predict Bin Laden will declare victory in Iraq to anger Americans into supporting the war. He will probably say (once again) that if we leave now there will be no more attacks on US soil. He will belittle us and successfuly use this approach right at the time that Genral Patraeus comes to tell congress we are winning to clinch US commitment to war in Iraq. In this scenario, the administration and Bin Laden have precisely the same goal. Stay the course.
In addition to tying down our military and bleeding us financially, Bin Laden has manipulated the U.S. into taking out Al Queda’s adversaries in the Muslim world.
If you take them at their word, Al-Queda’s goal is to establish a caliphate – sort of a revival of the Ottoman Empire updated with 21st century Wahabi fundamentalism. Major opponents to this program in the Muslim world would be secular Arab nationalists and Shiites. Step one is already happening – the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein is gone (and Syria has been under threat, off and on, since 2002). If Bin Laden can get the U.S. to attack Iran, that would be a blow to the largest Shiite nation.
He’s been playing Bush/Cheney like a fiddle.
Wanting the oil and wanting us to stay may not be mutually exclusive. If his plan is to control the oil, he would need the US to exhaust its military ability to influence Iraq’s future. That is going to happen because of our inability to sustain troop levels for more than about a year. So it may not be aquiring the oil vs continuing the war. It could be a matter of the war needing more time in order to make his aquiring the oil possible.
Whether Bin Laden or the CIA produced this video, the message is clear.
“Stay the Course”
In America, Bin Laden is the most hated man alive. So when he threatens to go on killing our soldiers, the obvious reaction is going to be to defy him by “staying the course”. See excerpts from video transcript below.
Osama- “However, there are two solutions for stopping it. The first is from our side, and it is to continue to escalate the killing and fighting against you. This is our duty, and our brothers are carrying it out, and I ask Allah to grant them resolve and victory.”
And if Osama sends a message that ridicules our soldiers in the field, the immediate reaction from the American public is a resounding cry to “stay the course” and defy Osama.
Osama- “If they leave their barracks, the mines devour them, and if they refuse to leave, rulings are passed against them. Thus, the only options left in front of them are to commit suicide or cry, both of which are from the severest of afflictions.”
And if Osama refers to a leftist icon like Chomsky and indicates that Chomsky’s thinking is correct, then the reaction from the American public will be to align Chomsky (and the left in general) with the enemy. Further leading to a boost in public opinion to stop listening to the liberal nay sayers of the war and “stay the course”.
Osama- “This war was entirely unnecessary, as testified to by your own reports. And among the most capable of those from your own side who speak to you on this topic and on the manufacturing of public opinion is Noam Chomsky, who spoke sober words of advice prior to the war, but the leader of Texas doesn’t like those who give advice.”
And if Osama tells us that he is defeating us in Iraq, the natural reaction from the public will be to “stay the course”.
Osama- “And our holding firm to this magnificent Book is the secret of our strength and winning of the war against you despite the fewness of our numbers and materiel.”
And then Osama tells us that the way to end the war is for us to embrace Allah….which of course produces a predictable reaction from Christian America.