Bloomberg News released a story today that Bin Laden will be releasing a video to address the American people on the anniversary of the September 11 attacks. The last time Bin Laden released a video was October 29th of 2004 which was only a few days ahead of the presidential election.
I predict that Bin Laden will deliver a message that will be designed to compel Americans to keep our troops in Iraq. He will likely say quite the opposite, but the intent will be to anger us into defying him by supporting the war.
Here is why-
Here is why-
1)- Al Qaeda’s greatest tool for recruiting new members is that American soldiers are occupying an Arab state.
As long as we are in Iraq, he can continue to enjoy an influx of new zealots driven by the idea that we are at war with Islam. The life blood of Al Qaeda depends on our ongoing commitment to stay in Iraq.
2)- There was no Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia in Iraq until after we went to war in Iraq.
Bin Laden was driven into obscurity after the 911 attacks. The franchising of Al Qaeda was largely the result of our invasion of Iraq. When Abu Musab al-Zarqawi announced his allegiance to Al Qaeda in Iraq it was an enormous boost for the terrorists in hiding. It meant that despite their own inability to operate freely, Al Qaeda would be visible and actively publicised by the media covering the Iraq war.
3) Bin Laden’s goal is to destroy the US financially.
When Bin Laden released the last video in 2004, he made it clear that his goal was to destroy the United States by causing us financial hardship. If our troops were to pull out of Iraq now, the $3 billion dollars per week we are spending would no longer be stacking up our debt. Although we have apparently weathered the immediate impact of the 911 attacks, the expense resulting from our military response has reached staggering proprtions. Twice since 911 congress has voted to lift the ceiling on spending, largely due to the Iraq campaign. In 6 years we have gone from operating at a nearly break even rate to (9) trillions of dollars in debt. That debt financed mostly by China and Saudi Arabia starts coming due this year…with interest. Meanwhile, rather than reducing our debt we have compounded the problem by removing tax revenues to pay for it. As long as we are in Iraq, Bin Laden knows that his war against our economy will continue moving forward.
4) Being over extended in Iraq has kept us from dealing with the build up of Al Qaeda in the tribal region of Pakistan.
While we have been mired down in Iraq with our troops strained and our resources drawn thin, Al Qaeda has been recruiting and organizing along the western border of Pakistan in an area called Warizistan. This is the area where Bin Laden is proported to be hiding. It is also where the three terrorists arrested in Germany yesterday received their training. Although we are being told that Iraq is the war on terror, the terrorists are protected by our inability to deal with anything else.
I predict Bin Laden will declare victory in Iraq to anger Americans into supporting the war. He will probably say (once again) that if we leave now there will be no more attacks on US soil. He will belittle us and successfuly use this approach right at the time that Genral Patraeus comes to tell congress we are winning to clinch US commitment to war in Iraq. In this scenario, the administration and Bin Laden have precisely the same goal. Stay the course.