“Ils sont partis! (And they’re off!)” Those are the words that the Cajun announcers of my youth would cry out at the race track as the horses left the gate. Now it’s the voice that rang out in my head when I read this first general election matchup poll between Judy Baker (D-Columbia) and Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-St. Elizabeth) for Missouri’s Ninth Congressional District. Archpundit can vouch for the pollster, having worked with them on Jeff Smith’s 2006 run for State Senate.

Judy has a much stronger foundation for this campaign, according to the pollster. Both had contentious primaries, but only Judy escaped relatively unscathed. Among those who know the candidates, 30% had a favorable opinion of Judy, while only 8% had an unfavorable opinion. By contrast, Luetkemeyer had a favorably rating of 33% and unfavorables at 16%. Baker also has positive favorability ratings with both GOP men and women, while Luetkemeyer is in the negative with Democrats who know him.

Now, this is huge. Ever since outgoing incumbent Kenny Hulshof narrowly defeated Harold Volkmer in 1996 to win the 9th District seat, he’s won big over every single Democrat who has challenged him. The only Democrat to keep him under 60% was Steve Carroll in 2000, keeping the margin of victory to a scant 21%. For Baker to be leading at this point gives me a lot of hope.

The other thing that gives me hope is that Judy has comparable cash on hand to her opponent, and the DCCC has more cash to spread around – and fewer seats to target – than their Republican counterparts. Judy should have enough money to remain competitive through Election Day, as long as supporters like you continue to help out, of course.

Another thing that popped out in looking at the historical data – Hulshof never lost Boone County. In 2006, a big Democratic year nationwide, Hulshof carried Boone County over Burghard by over 12,000 votes. Does anyone think that Baker will lose Boone to Luetkemeyer? Winning Boone County will be key in keeping the margin close, but Judy has got to replicate her success in rural areas during the primary to win in the general.

The full memo is below the fold.

To:      Baker for Congress

From: Margie Omero

           Momentum Analysis

Re:      Recent polling in MO-9

Date:  August 20, 2008

In the August 5 primary, Judy Baker emerged with both a larger vote total and a larger vote percentage than Blaine Luetkemeyer.  Our recent, post-primary polling confirms Baker’s strength. She is more popular among those who know her, and has a 2-point lead over her opponent.

Baker is more popular than Luetkemeyer among those who know each

Despite negative attacks from her opponents in the primary, far more voters are favorable toward Baker (30%) than unfavorable (8%).  Four times as many have a “very favorable” impression as have a “very unfavorable” one (12%, 3%, respectively).  Even Republicans are more likely to be favorable than favorable than unfavorable (Republican women: 13% favorable, 8% unfavorable; Republican men: 17% favorable, 15% unfavorable).

fav

unfav

Baker – overall

30

8

Luetkemeyer – overall

33

16

Baker – GOP women

13

8

Baker – GOP men

17

15

Luetkemeyer – Dem women

20

23

Luetkemeyer – Dem men

17

34

By contrast, Blaine Luetkemeyer’s negative primary took a toll.  His favorables are comparable to Baker’s, but his unfavorables are twice as high (33% favorable, 16% unfavorable).  Not even twice as many have a “very favorable” impression as have a “very unfavorable” (11%, 7%, respectively).  And unlike Baker, he is unpopular with voter outside his own party, particularly with Democratic men.

Baker leads Luetkemeyer

This advantage in popularity translates into an advantage in the vote.  Without any candidate messaging, Baker leads

Luetkemeyer (41% Baker, 39% Luetkemeyer, 3% Millay, 16% undecided).  Baker leads among women (45% Baker, 36% Luetkemeyer), and does better with Democrats (78% Baker, 12% Luetkemeyer) than Luetkemeyer does with Republicans (14% Baker, 66% Luetkemeyer).

Judy Baker begins the general election strong from her competitive primary win.  She leads Luetkemeyer before the campaigns have engaged on issues such as health care for seniors, women, kids, and newborns.  With adequate resources, Baker can continue to expand her lead, and turn this seat from Red to Blue in November.

This memo is based on a survey of 400 general election voters in Missouri’s 9th CD.  A voter file sample was used, and respondents were further screened for likely November 2008 voters.  Interviews were conducted by telephone, August 12-14, 2008.  The margin of error for the survey overall is +/- 4.9%.  The margin of error for subgroups is larger.

Yeah, it’s called the Governor’s Ham Breakfast, but the one we’ve got currently is such a lame duck that the name of the meal doesn’t exactly go with his title…

The parking area near the Director’s Tent, site of the breakfast, is surrounded by a forest of candidate yard signs.

Starting at 7:00 this morning on the grounds of the Missouri State Fair in Sedalia campaigns lined the path to the ham breakfast entry gate with volunteers who held candidate signs and offered campaign stickers in a long and colorful gauntlet which attendees passed through to get to the breakfast.

State Representative Paul LeVota (D) (right), House Minority Leader.

Before the breakfast candidates greet supporters, each other, their opponents, and their opponent’s supporters in one giant schmooze fest outside the tent (and later, inside)- all with the media watching, listening, and photographing.  

Congressman Kenny Huslshof (r) (left), the republican nominee for governor, and Congressman Ike Skelton (D) (center).

State Representative Judy Baker (D), the Democratic Party nominee in the 9th Congressional District.

Campaign videographers (also known as “trackers”) filming everyone and everything.

Judy Baker and Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D).

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) (center) and Missouri State Auditor Susan Montee (D) (right) at the ham breakfast entry gate.

Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon (D), the Democratic Party nominee for governor.

Senator Claire McCaskill gives a radio interview.

State Representative Margaret Donnelly, a Democratic Party candidate for Attorney General.

State Senator Chris Koster (D) (center), the Democratic Party nominee for Attorney General, and Judy Baker.

Claire McCaskill and Chris Koster.

Claire McCaskill and Judy Baker.

Missouri Governor Matt Blunt (r) gives a radio interview.

Via Fired Up, I see that Republican operatives are squawking to Politico that Judy Baker was their preferred opponent in Missouri’s Ninth District. Nothing new here; Republicans love spreading misinformation on that site. What’s perhaps more surprising is that one of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s main political writers, Jake Wagman, would fall for the same story.

The GOP is trying to promote a storyline that Baker is weak outside of her “liberal base” in Columbia, where Gaw would supposedly have scooped up votes all over the district. Nevermind that Baker beat Gaw in northern Missouri counties like Clark and Scotland, in the center of the district in Gasconade County, in Saint Charles County, and in the south of the district in Crawford County. If it had been a true rural vs. city split, the race might have been closer, but as it was, Baker won handily with support throughout the district.

It’s not surprising either. I’ve met Judy, and she’s very charming and personable. She has a good track record working on important issues like health care, and as the wife of a Baptist minister and as someone with a Master of Divinity degree, the usual Republican cultural attacks don’t work too well against her. And as a candidate, she is very effective at raising enough funds to compete all over the district.

The fact of the matter is, GOP operatives aren’t interesting in pesky little things like facts. If Gaw, Bode or Jacob had prevailed, they would put a different spin on the exact same storyline. But as a newspaper reporter and all, Wagman should spend a little more time researching and a little less time passing along GOP talking points.

By the way, if the P-D wants to pass along a partisan point of view, they would do well to read Fired Up’s analysis of why Hulshof is the worst of the Republican gubernatorial options, politically speaking.

Photo of Judy Baker sandbagging in Hannibal courtesy of JudyBakerforCongress on Flickr.

I forget whether Friday evening was billed as a banquet. Whatever they called it, I wouldn’t call it a banquet. The food, which was strictly incidental, was a rubber chicken buffet–without the chicken. Cold roast beef, sandwiches three times the size of a postage stamp, dice made of cheese, and sliced veggies.

Also incidental were any speeches that were made. Somebody spoke to himself on the microphone for five minutes. I couldn’t decipher a word of it at the back of the “banquet” room. No one paid the least attention to him. They were there for the main attraction: each other. It was a chance to network, trade war stories, briefly make the acquaintance of like minded people you’ll never see again. Everybody nibbled fried mushrooms from their five inch plates and circulated.  In fact, I dropped a fried mushroom and the woman I was talking to–we’ll allow her to remain nameless–smiled, picked it up and popped it in her mouth. She was efficient and unembarrassed. I hadda love it.

Jay Nixon spoke for five minutes or so to rally the troops. Maybe three fourths of the people in the room quit talking for that. As soon as he stopped, a couple of hundred conversations resumed. So did the band. Hearing what was said was problematic.

I talked to Ken Jacob and Judy Baker, both vying for Hulshof’s seat in the Ninth. Ken likes to split wood. “Like Bush,” I said, but Ken explained that he himself chops wood. Bush saws it. OK. Judy’s excited about the year and her campaign. But she does moan that she’s got to find a way to be less … “boring.” Not that she is. All she means is that she’s no fun to gossip about.  She should start a rumor that she has ties to organized crime.  That’ll jazz up her image.

Steve Gaw was there, too, but I didn’t get a chance to meet him. Saturday, maybe.

Jeff Harris told me the latest on his nasty little e-mail skirmish with G. W. Blunt. Harris says he communicated to the guv today his preliminary estimate of how much material he’ll be turning over in answer to the administration’s sunshine request: about 75,000 pages of documents and 5,000 e-mails at a cost to the state of something in the neighborhood of $10,000.

Jeff figures they were mighty surprised at his swift compliance since he’s a lawyer. They probably expected him to do what they would do: use lawyerly tricks to stonewall. They’d assume he’d have lots of embarrassing shenanigans to hide, just like they do. Nope. He’s turning it all over to them.Take that, you weasels. Your snotty little game just fell flat.

Jake Zimmerman was in his element, schmoozing, wise cracking, and having a helluva good time. He’s delighted that House Republicans and Senate Republicans are so cheesed off at each other that they can’t even get passed what they both want to pass. He says they may be so busy hating each other that they might slip up and fail to get the Voter I.D. amendment ready for the ballot. Maybe. But probably not.

Tommy Roberts, the chair of the Democratic Committee in St. Charles County was telling me that he just won an aldermanic election in St. Peters: he’s the first ever Democrat to win an aldermanic election in that staunch Republican stronghold. More on that race in the next week or so.

Byron DeLear was there. Of course. I’ve been saying for several months now that I expect to start running into him at Schnucks. I see him everywhere else.

The party’s over now. Time to hit the sack.

(Why yes, i’ve been busy, but..)

In the battle for the 9th Congressional District, let’s take some time out to see how the candidates are doing in the category of raising money.

First, let’s cover the five Republicans.

Dan Bishir hasn’t filed a report yet. He does have a site under construction. Good for Bishir that the cover of the ‘purge of the lazy’ only applies to statewide and state legislative races.

So on to the more active candidates.

Blaine Luetkemeyer raised $71300 in the first quarter (all of it coming in 12 days at the end of March), and spent $0. Luetkemeyer recieved $66300 in individual contributions, which $65K of it being over $200. $45.4K of those donations came from in the district, with $19.6K being from exotic locals like Purdy, Neosho, and Lenexa. Luetkemeyer also recieved $27.6K from relatives with the same surname.

Luetkemeyer recieved $5K from the American Bankers Association PAC.

Danie Moore raised $21,675 in the first quarter, spent $3,751, and has $17,923 on hand. Moore’s PAC donors include “Friends of Vicky Hartzler” and the “Missouri Forest Products PAC”

‘Brock’ Olivo* raised $36,233 in the first quarter, spent $13,500, and has $22,732 on hand.

(* – His FEC reports reveal his full name as James Brockman Olivo, for any of you trivia nerds out there. So now you can call him “The Brockman” for a reason)

So, where did our favorite mild-mannered football star/aspiring politico find his money this quarter? He loaned $30K of it to himself and ran up a lot of donations (and submitted a very non-digital report too).

Amongst the 40 (or so) donors, there are three notable things

a) Only 2 donors gave Olivo over $100

b) Marty Mornhinweg gave $100 (Mornhinweg having coached Olivo in 2001 and 2002)

c) Ed Robb gave $27 to Olivo

Bob Onder “raised” $370,198, spent $1,220, and has $368,977 on hand. Looking at the nitty-gritty makes it obvious that Bob Onder probably wrestled in Mexico under the name “Doctor Dinero”, because Onder gave himself $250K. But Onder did raise $120K from sources other than his wallet. Nobody too notable appears on the list, unless you consider Mike Holzknecht (who ran against Delbert Scott in 2006). Onder’s donor list includes exotic locations like Ocala, FL; Dallas, TX; Peoria, IL; and Higginsville, MO.

A diagnosis of this race: Onder is an early favorite due to his abilities at fundraising from others and from his own wallet. But let’s look at the regional odds for the candidates.

Luetkemeyer’s 2004 showing is not a great sign of how he’ll fare in the Southern part of the district this time. After all, Steelman creamed Luetkemeyer in her state senate district. This time around, I’d expect Luetkemeyer to be the favorite in Osage, Miller (Luetkemeyer wins 75%+), and maybe Crawford. Luetkemeyer’s 2004 showing in Warren County will probably not be repeated due to Onder. Luetkemeyer might fare well with whoever is voting in the Northern part of the district (around Hannibal).

Danie Moore’s campaign is not entirely impressive yet. Her keys to victory include combining a huge majority in Callaway with good showings in Boone and Franklin, and a good showing in the Northern tier of the district.

For all the ribbing Brock Olivo recieves due to his campaign so far, he is very well positioned to claim a good percentage of the vote (provided that Onder doesn’t bury him under stacks of money). Olivo should fare pretty well in Boone County, Olivo will win Gasconade easily, and Olivo has an edge on the competition in Franklin County.

Bob Onder will most likely win St. Charles easily, win Warren relatively easily, and if he can pull off a comfortable win in Franklin, he’ll probably win it all. Plus, if he uses some of the giant piles of money on the Hannibal and Kirksville markets, he should fare well there. But, if he’s the only one hitting the STL market heavily, then expect him to be hard to beat.

Now, which candidate is worth cheering for right now? Tough to say. I have a feeling that if we get the right candidate, we will beat Bob Onder. But, there’s always a catch.

Now, onto the Democrats

And we start off with Judy Baker. Judy raised $123,097 and $25,718 in the first quarter. Now, a split will be acknowledged to divide the prominent donors who donated before and after Hulshof decided to run for governor.

Pre-1/29 donors include Connie Hendren, Sara Lampe, Susan Montee, and Sam Page.

As for how fundraising is going after 1/29.. that’s a good one. We’ll see how it rolls.

Lyndon Bode raised $77,100, spent $65,737, and has $11,362 on hand. Bet you didn’t expect Bode to be the big spender so far. Bode gave himself $56,800 to start off with. But a scanning of disbursements notes that Bode gave himself $56.4K of his money in-kind for the office, supplies, and everything else. So not an entirely eventful quarter from Lyndon Bode.

Steve Gaw raised $110,669, spent $8,616, and has $102,052 on hand. All of the money is individual contributions, with money coming from Nancy Copenhaver, Bill Gratz, Tim Harlan, Dorothy Hungate, Doris Kirkpatrick, Jim Mathewson, and Alan Wheat. Overall, a very good first quarter, as Steve Gaw has went through his address book.

Ken Jacob raised $79,930, spent $5,569, and has $74,360 on hand. Jacob gave himself $50K to start off with. There’s nobody too notable on his donor list so far.

So, what’s going to happen here?

Bode will win Marion easily, and should be a strong contender in all the counties bordering Marion, depending on how viable his campaign turns out to be. If it’s a good campaign, then he will win a few of the counties bordering Marion County. If it’s not very good, he wins Marion, gets double-digits in the bordering counties, and loses easily.

Gaw will probably fare very well in the northern counties. He will win Randolph easily. For the best success, he should be able to win in counties like Monroe, Macon, and other places like that. He would also need a good showing in Adair County.

Judy Baker’s and Ken Jacob’s destinies connect, due to their shared residence of Boone County. So one of them either needs to win big there, or to fare very well in the rest of the district.

My extremely subjective projections for both primaries

Democrats: Gaw 32, Baker 31, Jacob 23, Bode 14. Granted, that’s with some superhigh Bode percentages in the Hannibal area.

That percentage is with a projected 44/34 Baker win over Jacob in Boone County. Keeping in mind tnat Jacob lost Boone County to Bekki Cook in 2004.

Republicans: Onder 30, Moore 26, Olivo 23, Luetkemeyer 18, Bishir 3

Now, I’m feeling that Moore’s number might be slightly high and if she doesn’t rev up her campaign, she’ll finish in the high 10s to low 20s.

Now, these projections are not based on any science, just various observations involving where candidates live and factors similar to that. Expect the projections to wildly change.

So, Gaw/Onder, Gaw/Olivo, Baker/Onder, Baker/Olivo, Baker/Moore, Gaw/Moore, so many choices are possible in the battle for the 9th.

What do you all think?

Five and five: that’s how many Democrats and Republicans have announced for Hulshof’s seat.

On the Republican side, Brock (“I not only was a football player…I was in social studies class as well…”) Olivo may not have the best chance, but he’s better known nationally–thanks to Daily Kos and Keith Olbermann–than the other four. Said Olbermann: “So going to class is so rare for a college football player, he can try to run for congress based on it?!”

At least Olivo is now known, if not exactly in the way he’d like to be. Dan Bisir, on the other hand,is nothing more than a collection of eight letters of the alphabet. Every website that mentions his entry into the race follows his name with “a political unknown.” All I know about him is that he’s from St. Peters.

Two of the others are state reps: Bob Onder (Lake St. Louis)and Danie Moore (Fulton). Onder has lined up Rod Jetton, who’ll be termed out this year and is going into political consulting, to advise him on his campaign. Also announced but not yet filed is Blaine Luetkemeyer, Missouri’s Director of Tourism. He is a former state representative who lost the Republican primary for state treasurer in 2004.  

Lots of hot air about stopping illegal immigration from these three.

On the D side, we have Judy Baker, a state rep from Columbia, who had announced her intention to challenge Hulshof before he withdrew; Steve Gaw, former speaker of the Missouri House; Lyndon Bode (BO-Dee)–pictured at left, the Presiding Commissioner of Marion County; Jeff Schaeperkoetter, a former state rep, state senator, circuit judge, and–until recently–attorney in Jay Nixon’s office; and Ken Jacob (announced but not yet filed), who represented parts of Columbia as a state rep and state senator for almost 22 years and who is currently the chief counsel for state Auditor Susan Montee.

The videos below are courtesy of Politics Blog in Columbia. The first is of Judy Baker. Just listen to a little of it and then sample Danie Moore’s. Sheesh. I’m told that Ms. Moore is a genuinely nice, though misguided, person. But “nice” doesn’t excuse inane. She sounds like a sincere housewife who would cluck over every story about a rapist and ignore the way the power brokers are enriching Big Oil and Big Pharma at the expense of the people in Fulton.

Baker, on the other hand, is articulate. She may be as knowledgeable on health care issues as anyone in the legislature. Nor is she a “moderate” (anti-abortion) Democrat–despite the fact that her husband is a Baptist minister.

Schaeperkoetter is the “moderate” (anti-abortion) Democrat in the race. He’s had a history of success, I must say, with the “moderate” stance in Republican leaning Franklin and Gasconade counties since 1980. The year when Reagan swept into power and helped lots of Republicans into our state legislature, Schaeperkoetter beat a Republican incumbent. But his video doesn’t tell me much about his beliefs beyond being anti-abortion. He talks about being able to win south of the Missouri River and the abortion issue.

Steve Gaw, who lost the Secretary of State race to Matt Blunt in 2000, lists these accomplishments from his years on the legislature:

· sponsoring tax cuts for middle class families-including the legislation that eliminated taxes on groceries;

· proposing legislation to create Missouri’s “DO NOT CALL” list, one of the first in the nation;

· fighting for the development of ethanol plants in rural Missouri;

· establishing Missouri’s sex offender registry;

· ushering in an new era of ethics after scandal had rocked the Capitol;

· implementing improvements in education, like a program focusing students on the fundamentals of reading and arithmetic;

· creating new opportunities for Missourians to continue their education at the vocational/technical, junior college, and university levels.

Lyndon Bode, as a county commissioner, is understandably preoccupied with infrastructure. If he wound up in D.C., he’d make sure the government spent money to repair our bridges and roads. Nothing wrong with that, except it’s … limited.

As for the so far “unfiled” candidate, Ken Jacob, he touts his years of fighting the neoconservatives in the state legislature.

Earlier in the decade, Jacob rose to be Senate Minority Leader. He had fairly public clashes during his tenure with the Republican majority, filibustering so long that he said he still has pain in his feet.

Jacob, who got trounced by Bekki Cook in the 2004 primary for Lieutenant Governor, maintains that even though he lost that statewide contest, he’d have a solid basis for this race if the people who voted for him in 2004 do the same thing this year.

Video of Judy Baker:

Steve Gaw: Click on this link and scroll down to the video on the right side of the screen.

Progressive populist Democratic Rep, Judy Baker, is seeking support to run for 9th Congressional District!

As reported in today’s Tribune. She is looking for support and deserves it.

Judy is very well known in Boone County. She is great, but she is less well known in the more conservative Eastern portions of the District.  She will need help getting the message out and raising grassroots support there. Folks need to know that she is the wife of a Baptist minister and has worked hard for health care in Missouri… holding back the most eggregious of the Republican agenda.

It is high time for the 9th District to be represented by someone willing and able to meet with her constituents and who will fight for us!

Check out her 25th District website…contact her…send her some money, stay tuned for a 9th District campaign website, and get involved!

http://www.electjudybaker.com/index.html