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(Why yes, i’ve been busy, but..)

In the battle for the 9th Congressional District, let’s take some time out to see how the candidates are doing in the category of raising money.

First, let’s cover the five Republicans.

Dan Bishir hasn’t filed a report yet. He does have a site under construction. Good for Bishir that the cover of the ‘purge of the lazy’ only applies to statewide and state legislative races.

So on to the more active candidates.

Blaine Luetkemeyer raised $71300 in the first quarter (all of it coming in 12 days at the end of March), and spent $0. Luetkemeyer recieved $66300 in individual contributions, which $65K of it being over $200. $45.4K of those donations came from in the district, with $19.6K being from exotic locals like Purdy, Neosho, and Lenexa. Luetkemeyer also recieved $27.6K from relatives with the same surname.

Luetkemeyer recieved $5K from the American Bankers Association PAC.

Danie Moore raised $21,675 in the first quarter, spent $3,751, and has $17,923 on hand. Moore’s PAC donors include “Friends of Vicky Hartzler” and the “Missouri Forest Products PAC”

‘Brock’ Olivo* raised $36,233 in the first quarter, spent $13,500, and has $22,732 on hand.

(* – His FEC reports reveal his full name as James Brockman Olivo, for any of you trivia nerds out there. So now you can call him “The Brockman” for a reason)

So, where did our favorite mild-mannered football star/aspiring politico find his money this quarter? He loaned $30K of it to himself and ran up a lot of donations (and submitted a very non-digital report too).

Amongst the 40 (or so) donors, there are three notable things

a) Only 2 donors gave Olivo over $100

b) Marty Mornhinweg gave $100 (Mornhinweg having coached Olivo in 2001 and 2002)

c) Ed Robb gave $27 to Olivo

Bob Onder “raised” $370,198, spent $1,220, and has $368,977 on hand. Looking at the nitty-gritty makes it obvious that Bob Onder probably wrestled in Mexico under the name “Doctor Dinero”, because Onder gave himself $250K. But Onder did raise $120K from sources other than his wallet. Nobody too notable appears on the list, unless you consider Mike Holzknecht (who ran against Delbert Scott in 2006). Onder’s donor list includes exotic locations like Ocala, FL; Dallas, TX; Peoria, IL; and Higginsville, MO.

A diagnosis of this race: Onder is an early favorite due to his abilities at fundraising from others and from his own wallet. But let’s look at the regional odds for the candidates.

Luetkemeyer’s 2004 showing is not a great sign of how he’ll fare in the Southern part of the district this time. After all, Steelman creamed Luetkemeyer in her state senate district. This time around, I’d expect Luetkemeyer to be the favorite in Osage, Miller (Luetkemeyer wins 75%+), and maybe Crawford. Luetkemeyer’s 2004 showing in Warren County will probably not be repeated due to Onder. Luetkemeyer might fare well with whoever is voting in the Northern part of the district (around Hannibal).

Danie Moore’s campaign is not entirely impressive yet. Her keys to victory include combining a huge majority in Callaway with good showings in Boone and Franklin, and a good showing in the Northern tier of the district.

For all the ribbing Brock Olivo recieves due to his campaign so far, he is very well positioned to claim a good percentage of the vote (provided that Onder doesn’t bury him under stacks of money). Olivo should fare pretty well in Boone County, Olivo will win Gasconade easily, and Olivo has an edge on the competition in Franklin County.

Bob Onder will most likely win St. Charles easily, win Warren relatively easily, and if he can pull off a comfortable win in Franklin, he’ll probably win it all. Plus, if he uses some of the giant piles of money on the Hannibal and Kirksville markets, he should fare well there. But, if he’s the only one hitting the STL market heavily, then expect him to be hard to beat.

Now, which candidate is worth cheering for right now? Tough to say. I have a feeling that if we get the right candidate, we will beat Bob Onder. But, there’s always a catch.

Now, onto the Democrats

And we start off with Judy Baker. Judy raised $123,097 and $25,718 in the first quarter. Now, a split will be acknowledged to divide the prominent donors who donated before and after Hulshof decided to run for governor.

Pre-1/29 donors include Connie Hendren, Sara Lampe, Susan Montee, and Sam Page.

As for how fundraising is going after 1/29.. that’s a good one. We’ll see how it rolls.

Lyndon Bode raised $77,100, spent $65,737, and has $11,362 on hand. Bet you didn’t expect Bode to be the big spender so far. Bode gave himself $56,800 to start off with. But a scanning of disbursements notes that Bode gave himself $56.4K of his money in-kind for the office, supplies, and everything else. So not an entirely eventful quarter from Lyndon Bode.

Steve Gaw raised $110,669, spent $8,616, and has $102,052 on hand. All of the money is individual contributions, with money coming from Nancy Copenhaver, Bill Gratz, Tim Harlan, Dorothy Hungate, Doris Kirkpatrick, Jim Mathewson, and Alan Wheat. Overall, a very good first quarter, as Steve Gaw has went through his address book.

Ken Jacob raised $79,930, spent $5,569, and has $74,360 on hand. Jacob gave himself $50K to start off with. There’s nobody too notable on his donor list so far.

So, what’s going to happen here?

Bode will win Marion easily, and should be a strong contender in all the counties bordering Marion, depending on how viable his campaign turns out to be. If it’s a good campaign, then he will win a few of the counties bordering Marion County. If it’s not very good, he wins Marion, gets double-digits in the bordering counties, and loses easily.

Gaw will probably fare very well in the northern counties. He will win Randolph easily. For the best success, he should be able to win in counties like Monroe, Macon, and other places like that. He would also need a good showing in Adair County.

Judy Baker’s and Ken Jacob’s destinies connect, due to their shared residence of Boone County. So one of them either needs to win big there, or to fare very well in the rest of the district.

My extremely subjective projections for both primaries

Democrats: Gaw 32, Baker 31, Jacob 23, Bode 14. Granted, that’s with some superhigh Bode percentages in the Hannibal area.

That percentage is with a projected 44/34 Baker win over Jacob in Boone County. Keeping in mind tnat Jacob lost Boone County to Bekki Cook in 2004.

Republicans: Onder 30, Moore 26, Olivo 23, Luetkemeyer 18, Bishir 3

Now, I’m feeling that Moore’s number might be slightly high and if she doesn’t rev up her campaign, she’ll finish in the high 10s to low 20s.

Now, these projections are not based on any science, just various observations involving where candidates live and factors similar to that. Expect the projections to wildly change.

So, Gaw/Onder, Gaw/Olivo, Baker/Onder, Baker/Olivo, Baker/Moore, Gaw/Moore, so many choices are possible in the battle for the 9th.

What do you all think?