The Daily Kos‘ election roundup reports that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) is finally showing a little love to Missouri Democrats by means of a a $1.5 million TV ad buy to help Jason Kander defeat Roy Blunt:

It’s a little more surprising to see Democrats advertising in Missouri, a conservative state that Donald Trump is likely to carry in November. However, polls have consistently shown Republican Sen. Roy Blunt with a 3 to 7-point lead over Kander, and the DSCC has evidently decided that Blunt is worth spending money against. One Nation has also run ads here and the SLF reserved $2.5 million in fall TV time to support Blunt back in June; the NRA also recently started running ads against Kander. This is also the first time a major Democratic group has run commercials here.

While the DSCC’s move is welcome, […] Kander […] will need a lot more outside help ….

The move is surprising if only because Democrats seem to have written Missouri off. There is, for instance,  one Missouri Clinton campaign office, located in St. Louis. Compare that to 24 campaign offices in Iowa. And, given that campaigns have to choose how to allocate dollars, maybe they’re right to slight us. If you look at battle ground states polling averages on RealClear Politics – a more conservative-leaning polling site – you’ll find that Trump is currently ahead in only four states, and in most cases, the lead is less than 2 points – in two states it is less than one point. Toss-ups in other words.  But the battleground state where Trump  has had and consistently holds a larger lead is Missouri where his average lead is greater than that of than Georgia or Arizona, two red states that are increasingly viewed as potentially shiftable. If Clinton has any coattails at all in Missouri, they’re god-awful short. And, although there has been fewer polls measuring the senate race in Missouri than elsewhere, the margin between Blunt and Kander is larger than in several other senate races with GOP incumbents – it’s not a “margin or error” type of situation.

It strikes me, however, that the crux of the ad buy is that, as the Dailykos writer notes, “the DSCC has evidently decided that Blunt is worth spending money against.”  Even apart from any potential vulnerability, it might be worthwhile to take aim at Blunt. He’s a long-time political operative who stepped into Senate leadership in his first term, a natural role for the guy who was Tom Delay’s right hand man in the House. As the mention of Delay implies, Blunt is a “good earner” for the GOP and he almost always toes the party line, but in a way that minimizes controversy. It would be a “real get” to push him out of electoral Washington politics by means of a sincere, idealistic, young Democrat like Kander – although we should not expect Blunt to migrate any further than K-street, which might be his more natural nesting place to start with.

The Daily Kos writer is also right to note that Kander will need lots more help. Waves of Rove and Koch money will soon start rolling over us and the DSCC doesn’t seem likely to give Kander enough to keep him from being  submerged.

Yesterday in was the first day of candidate filing for the August 2016 primary. 335 individuals showed up in Jefferson City to file for offices ranging from U.S. Senate to Governor to the General Assembly to Circuit Court Judge. Candidate filing ends at 5:00 p.m. om March 29, 2016.

The numbers for the first day of candidate filing – via Missouri Secretary of State.

The candidate filings for the U.S. Senate:

U.S. Senator

Democratic
Chief Wana Dubie 470 COUNTY ROAD 3273 SALEM MO 65560 59 2/23/2016 12:13 p.m.
Cori Bush 2306 SUCASA DR APT B FLORISSANT MO 63031 78 2/23/2016 10:48 a.m.
Jason Kander PO BOX 548 COLUMBIA MO 65205 872 2/23/2016 12:38 p.m.

Republican
Roy Blunt 350 S JOHN Q HAMMONS PKWY APT 15-A SPRINGFIELD MO 65806 533 2/23/2016 11:16 a.m.
Kristi Nichols PO BOX 3353 INDEPENDENCE MO 64055 775 2/23/2016 3:59 p.m.
Bernie Mowinski 16 KATE CIR SUNRISE BEACH MO 65079 779 2/23/2016 4:57 p.m.
Christopher Batsche 118 BILLY DRIVE CASSVILLE MO 65625 913 2/23/2016 10:32 a.m.

Libertarian
Jonathan Dine 6909 NW 77TH TER KANSAS CITY MO 64152 158 2/23/2016 12:35 p.m.

Constitution
Fred Ryman 2838 SCHOTT RD JEFFERSON CITY MO 65101 937 2/23/2016 11:04 a.m.

Contemplate the remote probability of a Dubie-Blunt contest.

The candidate filings for Governor:

Governor

Democratic
Leonard Joseph Steinman II 2217 W EDGEWOOD DR JEFFERSON CITY MO 65109 192 2/23/2016 8:57 a.m.
Chris Koster PO BOX 1551 JEFFERSON CITY MO 65102 218 2/23/2016 9:00 a.m.

Republican
Catherine Hanaway 9109 WATSON RD SUITE 310 ST. LOUIS MO 63126 50 2/23/2016 8:31 a.m.
Eric Greitens 4500 WEST PINE BLVD ST. LOUIS MO 63108 259 2/23/2016 11:58 a.m.
John Brunner 11939 MANCHESTER ROAD #151 ST. LOUIS MO 63131 320 2/23/2016 11:02 a.m.
Peter D. Kinder PO BOX 712 JEFFERSON CITY MO 65102 643 2/23/2016 10:58 a.m.

Think of all the money involved.

The candidate filings for Lieutenant Governor:

Lieutenant Governor

Democratic
Winston Apple PO BOX 2231 INDEPENDENCE MO 64055 277 2/23/2016 4:22 p.m.
Russ Carnahan PO BOX 190033 ST. LOUIS MO 63119 475 2/23/2016 9:25 a.m.
Tommie Pierson, Sr. PO BOX 38202 ST LOUIS MO 63137 501 2/23/2016 10:52 a.m.

Republican
Arnie C. – AC Dienoff PO BOX 1535 O’ FALLON MO 63366 130 2/23/2016 4:07 p.m.
Bev Randles PO BOX 11099 KANSAS CITY MO 64119 234 2/23/2016 9:06 a.m.
Mike Parson 940 N REDEL PL BOLIVAR MO 65613 844 2/23/2016 11:59 a.m.

That will be interesting.

The candidate filings for Secretary of State:

Secretary of State

Democratic
Bill Clinton Young 444 W 12TH ST APT 705 KANSAS CITY MO 64105 407 2/23/2016 12:58 p.m.
Robin Smith 4218 SARPY AVENUE ST. LOUIS MO 63110 976 2/23/2016 3:11 p.m.

Republican
Will Kraus 612 SW TRAILPARK CIR LEES SUMMIT MO 64081 152 2/23/2016 12:21 p.m.
John (Jay) Ashcroft 12138 MIRROR LAKE DR ST LOUIS MO 63146 342 2/23/2016 3:04 p.m.

Ah, the legacy filed. But we already knew he would.

The candidate filings for State Treasurer:

State Treasurer

Democratic
Pat Contreras PO BOX 22546 KANSAS CITY MO 64113 348 2/23/2016 1:01 p.m.
Judy Baker PO BOX 329 COLUMBIA MO 65205 681 2/23/2016 11:38 a.m.

Republican
Eric Schmitt 937 BROWNELL AVE ST LOUIS MO 63122 11 2/23/2016 9:23 a.m.
Dan W. Brown PO BOX 934 ROLLA MO 65402 308 2/23/2016 12:01 p.m.

Interesting, a republican primary.

The candidate filings for Attorney General:

Attorney General

Democratic
Jake Zimmerman PO BOX 50085 ST. LOUIS MO 63105 669 2/23/2016 11:13 a.m.
Teresa Hensley PO BOX 620 RAYMORE MO 64083 768 2/23/2016 2:15 p.m.

Republican
Josh Hawley PO BOX 1073 COLUMBIA MO 65205 74 2/23/2016 9:07 a.m.
Kurt Schaefer PO BOX 1614 COLUMBIA MO 65205 245 2/23/2016 11:34 a.m.

You think the republican primary will be about who loves the University of Missouri more? Just asking.

Yesterday Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander announced his intention to run for the Senate seat currently held by Republican Roy Blunt in 2016. Although Blunt is so well- established in the state political hierarchy, and his campaign coffers are so full that defeating him will be a rough slog in a state that, as the DailyKos notes, “has become increasingly Republican in recent years, especially at the federal level,” Kander  will be a credible opponent:

Kander enters the contest with the backing of Missouri’s Democratic statewide elected officials, and he’s unlikely to face any real primary opposition. Kander has only won statewide once, but he proved in 2012 that he is capable of prevailing in tough races. He defeated then-state Rep. Shane Schoeller 49-47 at the same time Mitt Romney was carrying the Show Me State 54-44. As an Afghanistan veteran, Kander also has a background that contrasts well with Blunt, who has served in Congress for decades.

I suspect that implicit in the contrast the writer was implying when he noted that Blunt  has “served in congress for decades,” is the fact that the folks Blunt has served most diligently during those decades are the ones who can fork over the dollars. It’s not for nothing that Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) selected Blunt as one of the most corrupt members in congress – an honor that, as far as I remember, didn’t get too much play in the local press where folks seem to be very wary of offending a powerful politician, not to mention the daddy of former governor Matt Blunt, who, incidentally, had to field his own corruption scandals (see here, here, and here), some of them in tandem with  his father.

Yesterday evening I got a sample of that curious reluctance of local media folks to tell it like it is when it comes to Roy Blunt. Donnybrook is a local St. Louis public television program where a few minor, local media people of almost all persuasions, from the center left to far right (no hard-core progressives – that doesn’t seem to be done in St. Louis “power” circles), get together to discuss local current events. Naturally, Kander’s announcement came up. I was shocked to hear the tenor of the comments, including some from the putatively “liberal” donnybrookers.

“Roy Blunt is a darn good politician” one participant noted, adding that although Missouri has liberal media in Kansas City and St. Louis, “Blunt gets pretty darn good press; he’s almost error free, controversy free.” While my mouth dropped, another added that Blunt is a “seasoned, good politician, the press likes him, he’s personable, not crazy” and, get this, “he’s scandal free.” To be fair, a panel member, Wendy Wiese, did point out the scandals surrounding the tenure of Matt Blunt in which his father was seriously implicated, including the connections to “K-street,” and “quid pro quo,” but even she agreed that all that had “quieted down.”

So we live in a state and a time where simply not being one of the crazies and hanging on through scandal after scandal not only qualifies one for office, but, given a firm enough power base, renders one unbeatable. The other operative issue seemed to be that the Missouri press “likes” Blunt – a fact that is borne out by the fact that the scandals have “quieted” down. Many of them didn’t get much coverage, if any, to start with, apart from maybe an occasional editorial in those bastions of that “liberal media” referred to in the discussion. Remember Roy Blunt’s “Montsanto Protection Act” just a couple of years ago? Hardly controversy free by my standards.

I realize that the Donnybrook pundits were trying to talk about the political “horse race” and not the real virtues of the candidates – but I don’t think that handicapping the race need preclude recognition and serious mention of the accusations that have dogged and continue to dog Roy Blunt. I also realize that our definition of political corruption has narrowed to include only easily identifiable acts of bribery – which have come close to dinging Blunt in the past – but it wouldn’t hurt if a few media figures such as those pontificating on Donnybrook were willing to look at the things that Roy Blunt seems to care passionately about – if one can use the word “passionately” about such a lazy politician – and trace the relationship between those issues and his financial sponsors.

Even in strictly horse race terms, a fresh, and truly scandal free politician like Kander might actually give a tired, damaged piece of goods like Roy Blunt a run for his money if only state media were willing to ask the real Roy Blunt to “come on down.” Instead, I heard only condescendingly tolerant treatment of Kander who, the Donnybrook regulars noted, “will have a tough row to hoe.” But hey, the official pseudo-liberal on the panel, Bill McClellan, added that if he wants “to play in the big leagues before he’s ready,” why not let him; after all, McClellan implied, what harm can the kid really do?

Also at the level of horse race journalism, I didn’t hear one word about how 2016 will be a presidential election which could bring out a somewhat more balanced constituency. Maybe if we Democrats can finally oppose Blunt with a viable, honest candidate who isn’t afraid of standing up for his beliefs, our junior Senator won’t be able to coast into office once again by capitalizing on his opponent’s fear of red state bile – center-hugging Robin Carnahan, anyone – and the perception that he’ll be okay just because he’s not quite as stark raving crazy as the type of nutjobs that Missouri has become famous for, folks like Cynthia Davis, Rick Brattin or, most notoriously, Todd Akin – who, incidentally, may be hoping to firm up Roy Blunt’s “not crazy” credentials by providing the necessary contrast with the real, worst thing in the GOP primaries.

By now everybody has had their say about Demoratic Senator Claire McCaskill’s decision to bow to the manufactured, rightwing anti- Harry Reid fervor and refuse to vote for Reid as the Senate Minority Leader. Opportunistic? Certainly. Typical? Absoltely. Effective? Who can know.

Best speculation about how deep the maneuvre may cut? You can read it here. Short version: McCaskill is positioning herself for a run for Governor in 2016 and may try to buy off Koster by promising him her empty Senate seat if she wins. The DailyKos author sees lots of advantages in this scenario given the realities of Misouri politics. The Kansas City Star also speculates about the Reid put-down in terms of McCaskill’s gubernatorial aspirations.

Maybe she’ll impress a few “moderate” Missouri Republicans who are turned off by the state’s GOP clown show, but only at the cost of alienating progessives still further. And maybe it won’t even begin to have the effect that McCaskill hopes it will. Moderates of either party aren’t necessarily stupid. I assume folks at Breibart still speak for the  up-tight right and this is what they have to say about McCaskill’s exercise in political theatre:

They [i.e., McCaskill and like minded red state Seantors] didn’t even bother putting up a sham opponent against Reid to make it look convincing?  Aw, come on, guys, you’ve got to try harder to trick your constituents into thinking you’re a “new” kind of “moderate” Democrat.  The 2014 election should have made it abundantly clear that voters didn’t buy into the posturing from Democrats who claimed they would become Barack Obama’s worst nightmare when they reached Washington.  What makes these “defectors” think a tiny little squeak of protest against keeping Reid as their Senate poobah is going to fool anyone?

If the right wing is already jeering about this charade, will others tarry behind for very long? Breibart’s John Hayward may be correct about the lesson to be drawn – which some folks never learn. The 2014 election did show us that Democrats won’t turn out for polliticians who don’t stand up for their principles. There’s no substitute for backbone, even in politics. Especially in politics.