Um, it’s a little too early, don’t you think?

A roadside campaign sign in eastern Jackson County for Jacob Turk (r), biennial candidate in Missouri’s 5th Congressional District.

Representative Emanuel Cleaver (D) filed his first quarter report with the FEC on April 15th:

FEC FORM 3

REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS

For An Authorized Committee

FILING FEC-778416

1. CLEAVER FOR CONGRESS

   4801 Main Street, Stuite 1000

   Kansas City, Missouri 64112

   NOTE: Address IS Different than previously reported

   State is Missouri in District: 5

2. FEC Committee ID #: C00395848

3. This report is NOT an AMENDMENT

4. Report Type = APR QUARTERLY

Filed 04/15/2012

Here’s the summary:

6. (c) Net Contributions (6(a) – 6(b)) [$]165,444.20

7.(c) Net Operating Expenditures [$]62,572.14

8. Cash on Hand at Close of Reporting Period [$]440,708.49

[emphasis added]

That’s a healthy cash on hand amount.

Jacob Turk (r), one of the challengers, filed his first quarter report with the FEC on April 14th:

FEC FORM 3

REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS

For An Authorized Committee

FILING FEC-777553

1. Jacob Turk for Congress

   417 SE Annette Street

   Lees Summit, Missouri 640633403

   State is Missouri in District: 5

2. FEC Committee ID #: C00425983

3. This report is NOT an AMENDMENT

4. Report Type = APR QUARTERLY

For election on 08/07/2012 in the State of Missouri

Filed 04/14/2012

The summary:

6. (c) Net Contributions (6(a) – 6(b)) [$]38,290.99

7.(c) Net Operating Expenditures [$]42,082.27

8. Cash on Hand at Close of Reporting Period [$]91,920.60

[emphasis added]

It’s way too early in the cycle to have a burn rate greater than your fundraising. This would be considered a bad sign for any campaign.

Let’s take a look at where some of the money went:

SCHEDULE B

ITEMIZED DISBURSEMENTS

All Listed Line Numbers

Committee: JACOB TURK FOR CONGRESS

M and M Graphics

105 N Chestnut Street Suite C

Belton, Missouri 640122087

02/02/2012

Paraphernalia: t shirts [$]300.00

SQ *Nancy Bocskor Company

3323 Washington Boulevard

Arlington, Virginia 222014505

02/02/2012

fundraising consulting [$]2500.00

Holly Robichaud, Tuesday Associates

60 New Driftway Unit 18

Scituate, Massachusetts 020664547

02/09/2012

General Political Consulting S [$]1586.80

CBS Outdoor

2459 Summit Street

Kansas City, Missouri 641082424

02/14/2012

Advertising: Signage [$]750.00

M and M Graphics

105 N Chestnut Street Suite C

Belton, Missouri 640122087

02/15/2012

Paraphernalia: t shirts [$]274.13

Holly Robichaud, Tuesday Associates

60 New Driftway Unit 18

Scituate, Massachusetts 020664547

02/23/2012

General Political Consulting S [$]1000.00

Holly Robichaud, Tuesday Associates

60 New Driftway Unit 18

Scituate, Massachusetts 020664547

02/23/2012

General Political Consulting S [$]1151.60

SQ *Nancy Bocskor Company

3323 Washington Boulevard

Arlington, Virginia 222014505

03/01/2012

fundraising consulting [$]32.00  

James O’Brien

138 Sanborn Place

Alexandria, Virginia 223052672

03/18/2012

General Political Consultant [$]2750.00

T-shirts! Interesting fundraising return on investment there. Consulting! Signage!

The republican candidates who have filed in the 5th Congressional District:

U.S. Representative – District 5

Republican

Jason Greene 6222 RAYTOWN TRFY 175

RAYTOWN MO 64133 618 2/28/2012

Jacob Turk PO BOX 2097

LEE’S SUMMIT MO 64063 672 2/28/2012

Jerry Nolte PO BOX 10703

GLADSTONE MO 64188 984 2/28/2012

Ron Paul Shawd 1451 SW STATE ROUTE 150

LEES SUMMIT MO 64082 3/2/2012

As far as we can tell Jason Greene (r) and Ron Paul (seriously?) Shawd (r) did not file quarterly reports with the FEC which are accessible online.

Jerry Nolte (r) did so on April 15th:

FEC FORM 3

REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS

For An Authorized Committee

FILING FEC-777871

1. JERRY NOLTE FOR CONGRESS

   1304 NE 64TH STREET

   GLADSTONE, Missouri 64118

   State is Missouri in District: 6

2. FEC Committee ID #: C00492777

3. This report is NOT an AMENDMENT

4. Report Type = APR QUARTERLY

Filed 04/15/2012

The summary:

6. (c) Net Contributions (6(a) – 6(b)) [$]16,878.43

7.(c) Net Operating Expenditures [$]11,178.86

8. Cash on Hand at Close of Reporting Period [$]11,075.15

10. Debts and Obligations Owed BY the Committee [$]6,500.00

[emphasis added]

Some of the expenditures:

SCHEDULE B

ITEMIZED DISBURSEMENTS

All Listed Line Numbers

Committee: JERRY NOLTE FOR CONGRESS

All Star Awards

P.O. Box 10703

Gladstone, Missouri 64116

02/10/2012

Tee Shirt Order [$]291.93

[emphasis added]

T-shirts!

This could turn out to be one of those old fashioned republican t-shirt primaries. You know, the kind where the candidates flood the local summer parades with friends and relatives wearing their campaign t-shirts.

Previously: Deep Election-Related Thoughts (February 16, 2009)

Jim Stoufer (D) is challenging incumbent Jerry Nolte (r) in the 33rd Legislative District:

State Representative – District 33

Democrat

JIM STOUFER KANSAS CITY MO 344 2/23/2010

Republican

JERRY NOLTE GLADSTONE MO 123 2/23/2010

In 2008 the race for this seat was fairly close:

Official Election Returns

State of Missouri General Election  – 2008 General Election

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

State Representative – District 33 – Summary

Precincts Reporting 15 of 15

Nolte, Jerry REP 9,442 53.1%

Stone, Terry DEM 8,323 46.9%

Total Votes   17,765

Jim Stoufer (D) filed his first quarter campaign finance report with the Missouri Ethics Commission on April 11th:

Detailed Summary of Committee Disclosure Report

Committe: PEOPLE FOR STOUFER

ReportDate:

1. TOTAL RECEIPTS FOR THIS ELECTION PREVIOUSLY REPORTED $4,090.00

2. ALL MONETARY CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED THIS PERIOD $6,503.00

9. TOTAL ALL RECEIPTS THIS ELECTION(SUM 1B + 7A – 8A) $10,593.00

15. TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION (SUM 10B + 14A) $1,888.79

28. MONEY ON HAND AT THE CLOSE OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD (SUM 25 + 26 – 27) $8,704.21

35. TOTAL INDEBTEDNESS AT THE CLOSE OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD (SUM 29 + 30 + 31 – 32 – 33 – 34) $1,050.00

[emphasis added]

That’s a good fundraising quarter.

And where did the contributions come from?:

Detailed Summary of Contributions And Loans Received

Committee: PEOPLE FOR STOUFER

Report Date: 4/11/2010

Teamsters Local 41 PAC Kansas City, Mo 03/06/2010 $1,000.00

Transport Workers Union PAC New York, NY 03/10/2010 $500.00

Committee to Elect Bill Skaggs Kansas, City, Mo 03/01/2010 $500.00

IUPAT PAC washington, dc 03/12/2010 $500.00

Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers & Missouri Trainman PAC Liberty, Mo 03/01/2010 $250.00

Teamsters Local Union #541 PAC kansas city, mo 02/05/2010 $200.00

IBEW Local 23 PAC kansas city, mo 01/24/2010 $350.00

There is a significant number of small dollar contributions plus a lot of support from organized labor (working people!).

The expenditures:

Detailed Summary of Expenditures And Contributions Made

Committe: PEOPLE FOR STOUFER

ReportDate: 4/11/2010

A. EXPENDITURES OF $100 OR LESS BY CATEGORY

postage stamps $88.00

printer ink $81.11

printer ink $61.23

menu printing $26.80

campaign lunch/consultant $20.22

filing fees $50.00

Clay county dem party ad $75.00

B. ITEMIZED EXPENDITURES ALL OVER $100 AND ALL PAYMENTS TO CAMPAIGN WORKERS

Postmaster Antioch station kansas city, mo 03/08/2010 po box rental $116.00

Awesome! Low overhead, lean and mean.

The republican incumbent, Jerry Nolte, also filed his first quarter campaign finance report with the Missouri Ethics Commission on April 11th:

Detailed Summary of Committee Disclosure Report

Committe: CITIZENS FOR JERRY NOLTE

ReportDate:

1. TOTAL RECEIPTS FOR THIS ELECTION PREVIOUSLY REPORTED $9,525.00

2. ALL MONETARY CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED THIS PERIOD $3,230.00

15. TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION (SUM 10B + 14A) $2,213.57

28. MONEY ON HAND AT THE CLOSE OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD (SUM 25 + 26 – 27) $13,499.85

35. TOTAL INDEBTEDNESS AT THE CLOSE OF THIS REPORTING PERIOD (SUM 29 + 30 + 31 – 32 – 33 – 34) $0.00

[emphasis added]

That’s not a particularly exciting fundraising quarter, especially when compared to his challenger.

And where did the money come from?:

Detailed Summary of Contributions And Loans Received

Committee: CITIZENS FOR JERRY NOLTE

Report Date: 4/11/2010

Right Choice Managed Care Inc. Cincinnati OH 01/22/2919 [typo] $500.00

UP Railroad Company Kansas City MO 03/23/1020 [typo] $500.00

North Kansas City Beverage Co Inc North Kansas City MO 04/08/2010 $200.00

13. TOTAL MONETARY CONTRIBUTIONS RECEIVED FROM PERSONS GIVING $100 OR LESS $480.00

And there are about a dozen contributions from individuals giving $100.00 each.

The expenditures:

Detailed Summary of Expenditures And Contributions Made

Committe: CITIZENS FOR JERRY NOLTE

ReportDate: 4/11/2010

A. EXPENDITURES OF $100 OR LESS BY CATEGORY

Check printing $25.00

B. ITEMIZED EXPENDITURES ALL OVER $100 AND ALL PAYMENTS TO CAMPAIGN WORKERS

Best Buy Kansas City MO 02/28/2010 $483.62

Soli Printing North Kansas City MO 03/12/2010 $255.84

Gladstone Post Office Gladstone MO 03/15/2010 $88.00

Gladstone Post Office Gladstone MO 03/22/2010 $70.40

Chappell’s Restaurant North Kansas City MO 04/08/2010 food $241.92

What? No t-shirts? I’m disappointed. Food!

The incumbent isn’t exactly burning up the fundraising pavement and the Democratic party challenger is looking competitive. Very interesting.

In summarizing for me the top priorities of the House Democratic Campaign Committee this year, Ronny Richardson pointed to four races in western Missouri and one in the north central part of the state.

H.D. 33, at the northern edge of Jackson County, has a rematch between incumbent Jerry Nolte and the Democrat who lost to him by only 150 votes in ’06, Terry Stone. It often happens that candidates lose their first race for office, but build their name recognition, and then manage to vault over the barrier on their second try. On the assumption that such will be his luck, Terry Stone isn’t so much running for office again as he is still running for that state rep seat. Ronny tells me Stone never really stopped running in the last two years.

If you headed straight out the top right corner of Jackson County into Ray County, you’d be in H.D. 36, where Democrat Barbara Lanning is challenging incumbent Bob Nance. It’s usually a Democratic district, but Nance sneaked in there in ’04 when the incumbent got careless about campaigning hard enough. In ’06, Nance was challenged by a weak opponent and prevailed 61.4 percent to 38.6. He’ll have no such cakewalk this time. Barbara Lanning is a longtime schoolboard member and realtor. Ronny says she is “smart, articulate, and solidly Democratic.”

In the Warrensburg area, southeast of K.C., are two more races where Democrats have high hopes that a seat will fall into Democratic hands. H.D. 120 is open because Shannon Cooper is term limited out. Kristi Kenney, the Democrat in the race, challenged Cooper in 2006 despite the fact that he was an incumbent with a hundred twenty thousand #$%@^&* dollars to bury her with. His incumbency and his cash advantage notwithstanding, he only beat her 55.9 percent to 44.1 percent. That’s a commendable showing for a beginner.

And this time around, her opponent, Scott Largent, had $3,930 at the end of the first quarter. No incumbency advantage and no money advantage for the Republican this year. Hmmm.

Directly above H.D. 120 in Johnson County is H.D. 121. This is an open seat because David Pearce (of automotive deer hunting fame), the Republican who held it, is running against Chris Benjamin for the state Senate. Jim Jackson is the Democrat in the race, and he is well known in the district as a former mayor of Warrensburg and a city council member. He has roots in the community as a small business owner. Ronny says he fits that district’s profile nicely.

The final race in this three-part series is H.D. 22 in north central Missouri. It’s right under McClanahan’s and Shively’s districts, encompassing Chariton and Randolph counties. The incumbent is Therese Sander, a wingnut of Calamity Jane Cunningham’s ilk. Sander did okay in the last couple of elections, winning with 53.5 percent and 54.2 percent, but she only did that well because she didn’t have a strong challenger. In 2006, her opponent was a young man of 24 or 25, with no roots in the community.

This year will be different. Gail Brown is a barbershop owner, a county commissioner, and a minister at three churches. Like Sander, he’s a Christian–but with a heart. He’s more conservative than many Democratic candidates (pro-life, for example), but that makes him a suitable fit for the district.

And what a workhorse. He kicked off his campaign last fall.

In all, then, Ronny Richardson, described two Democratic seats that will be tough to hold (McClanahan and Shively) and eleven seats we hope to put in D hands. Eleven. That number sounds oddly familiar. I think it’s maybe the number of seats Dems would need to take back the House. Not that I assume we’ll get every one of the eleven seats Ronny Richardson described, but we’ll get a lot of them. And some of those second tier races are bound to come through for us. Maybe Deb Lavender will get the Kirkwood seat, for example.

Here’s the thing that makes this year look so good. We’re playing offense. We have two seats where we’re playing defense, and oodles of them where we’re on the offense. And don’t think Jay’s lead in the governor’s race won’t help. That’s some kind of coattails he’s gonna have.