SurveyUSA released a 1523 sample poll of “likely voters” in Missouri on May 19th which was in the field from May 16th through the 18th. The poll runs head to head match ups between McSame and the Democratic candidates. The margin of error is 2.6%.
That’s a really big sample.
The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City and KSDK in St. Louis.
If the election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
All
McCain – 46%
Clinton – 48%
Undecided – 6%
If the election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, who would you vote for?
All
McCain – 48%
Obama – 45%
Undecided – 7%
These numbers have remained essentially unchanged (within the margin of error) since the April SurveyUSA poll.
The crosstabulations by party identification are always interesting:
Party Affiliation
Democrats [45% of sample]
McCain – 12%
Clinton – 82%
Undecided – 5%
McCain – 20%
Obama – 72%
Undecided – 7%
republicans [30% of sample]
McCain – 89%
Clinton – 9%
Undecided – 2%
McCain – 89%
Obama – 8%
Undecided – 3%
Independents [19% of sample]
McCain – 54%
Clinton – 36%
Undecided – 11%
McCain – 49%
Obama – 39%
Undecided – 12%
Clinton’s and Obama’s numbers among self-identified Missouri republicans are virtually the same. The difference for the two Democrats is that Clinton does better among Democrats and Obama does slightly better among Independents.
Top Issues for Next President (McCain/Clinton and McCain/Obama numbers for “who would you vote for?” within each group)
Economy [50% of sample]
McCain – 43%
Clinton – 53%
Undecided – 5%
McCain – 46%
Obama – 48%
Undecided – 6%
Health Care [12% of sample]
McCain – 35%
Clinton – 59%
Undecided – 6%
McCain – 34%
Obama – 56%
Undecided – 9%
Iraq [11% of sample]
McCain – 31%
Clinton – 64%
Undecided – 5%
McCain – 27%
Obama – 67%
Undecided – 6%
Terrorism [7% of sample]
McCain – 80%
Clinton – 14%
Undecided – 6%
McCain – 83%
Obama – 10%
Undecided – 7%
Immigration [3% of sample]
McCain – 77%
Clinton – 20%
Undecided – 4%
McCain – 82%
Obama – 14%
Undecided – 4%
Social Security [4% of sample]
McCain – 44%
Clinton – 50%
Undecided – 6%
McCain – 57%
Obama – 28%
Undecided – 14%
Environment [3% of sample]
McCain – 41%
Clinton – 52%
Undecided – 6%
McCain – 23%
Obama – 63%
Undecided – 14%
Education [3% of sample]
McCain – 38%
Clinton – 49%
Undecided – 13%
McCain – 49%
Obama – 43%
Undecided – 8%
McSame continues to hold the republican “fear” base [Terrorism and Immigration]. Economic worries continue to rise as the most important issue at the expense of even those republican base issues. The smaller subsamples do have a larger margin of error.
Gender
Male [48% of sample]
McCain – 55%
Clinton – 40%
Undecided – 5%
McCain – 54%
Obama – 41%
Undecided – 5%
Female [52% of sample]
McCain – 37%
Clinton – 56%
Undecided – 6%
McCain – 43%
Obama – 47%
Undecided – 10%
There is a definite gender gap when it comes to Clinton and Obama. Males support Clinton and Obama in almost identical numbers.
I usually let the numbers speak for themselves, but after three consecutive polls a month in Missouri I can only come to one conclusion. It’s also a pragmatic solution. Both Clinton and Obama have to be on the ticket for the Democrats to carry Missouri in the presidential race in November.
