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Tag Archives: John McCain

Open or closed health care town halls? Easy answer: *IOKIYAR

27 Thursday Aug 2009

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Claire McCaskill, health care reform, John McCain, Kansas City, Kit Bond, missouri, Mitch McConnel, town hall

Our friends at Fired Up are reporting:

Bond, McConnell & McCain Holding Private “Health Care Reform Forum” Monday in Kansas City

Monday, Senators Kit Bond, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and John McCain will be the featured guests at a “Health Care Reform Forum” at Children’s Mercy Hospital in Kansas City.

The 75-100 guests invited to the event have reportedly been “hand-picked” by Bond’s office to hear about Republican plans for obstructing real health care reform.

The forum is closed to the public.

Heh. Maybe they’re afraid the great unwashed would try to hold them accountable for Medicare Part D.

It’s one thing to not do town halls because they’ve been going badly, it’s quite another to hold a fake one and hand pick your crowd.

*it’s okay if you’re a republican

John McCain (r) Twitter: brag on that "No" vote on Sebelius

29 Wednesday Apr 2009

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

John McCain, Kathleen Sebelius, Senate, Twitter

Senator John McCain posted on Twitter about his vote against confirming Kathleen Sebelius as Secretary of Health and Human Services:

voted against Sebelius – already moving towards socialized auto companies, we don’t need socialized medicine! about 4 hours ago from web

Socialized medicine? You mean like this? [pdf]:

[September 2007]…Members of Congress and retired Members are entitled to participate in the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP) under the same rules as other federal employees. Members meeting minimum enrollment period requirements who are also eligible for an immediate annuity may continue to participate in the health benefit program when they retire. For an additional fee, incumbent Members can receive health care services from the Office of the Attending Physician in the U.S. Capitol; in addition, Members may purchase care from the military hospitals using their FEHBP benefit. Members must also pay the same payroll taxes as all other workers for Medicare Part A coverage…

…Financing. The federal government and enrollees jointly pay for the cost, or premiums, of the FEHBP plans. The Balanced Budget Act of 1997 (BBA 97, P.L. 105-33) established the current formula for determining the government’s contribution, which became effective January 1999. The government’s share is an amount equal to 72% of the average premium of all participating plans (weighted by the number of plan participants) but no more than 75% of the premium of any individual plan. This formula is applied separately to self only and family plans. Participants pay an average of 28%, but no less than 25% of premiums…

…Private Sector Comparability

For individual coverage, the employer’s contribution in the private sector is generally more generous than the federal government’s FEHBP contribution for its employees. According to the Department of Labor, private sector employers’ share for coverage is 81% for individual coverage and 71% for family coverage (compared to FEHBP’s payment of 72% of the average premium of all participating plans).

FEHBP’s family coverage includes all families of two or more, while private sector plans may have different premiums for family plans depending on the family size. Under FEHBP’s family coverage, a family of two pays the same premium as a family of four.

Approximately three-fourths of all workers in private industry had no choice in medical insurance plan, either because they were not offered a plan (30%) or because they were offered only one plan (44%), while many FEHBP participants have the advantage of a wide choice of plans.

The number and percentage of people covered by employment-based health insurance has been decreasing. In the private sector, coverage dropped from 69% in 2000 to 60% in 2007. In particular, retiree health coverage has been hit the hardest. Sixty-six percent of all large firms (with 200 or more workers) offered retiree health coverage in 1988, compared with 33% in 2007. FEHBP is available to federal retirees at the same cost and with the same benefits offered to active employees.

In terms of premium increases, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that starting in 2003, FEHBP premium rate of growth was generally slower than for other purchasers. According to GAO testimony, since 2003, the average growth rate of FEHBP premiums has been 7.3% compared with 10.5% for the employer-ponsored plans surveyed by the Kaiser Family Foundation/Health Research Educational Trust. Premium rate growth for the 10 largest FEHBP plans (based on enrollment), that accounted for about three-quarters of total enrollment, ranged from 0% to 15.5% for 2007…

Nice work and good benefits, if you can get it.

How the Press, the Pentagon, and Even Human Rights Groups Sold Us Army Field Manual that Tortures

25 Sunday Jan 2009

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Amnesty International, Army Field Manual, CIA, Human Rights Watch, John Kimmons, John McCain, New York Times, petition for a special prosecutor, Sensory Deprivation, SERE, torture

How the Press, the Pentagon, and Even Human Rights Groups Sold Us Army Field Manual that Tortures

by Valtin at Docudharma, Sat Jan 24, 2009 at 23:12:04 PST

If you wish to repost this essay you can download a .txt file of the html here (right click and save). Permission granted.
Docudharma Tag: petition for a special prosecutor

Originally published at AlterNet

A January 17 New York Times editorial noted that Attorney General designate Eric Holder testified at his nomination hearings that when it came to overhauling the nation’s interrogation rules for both the military and the CIA, the Army Field Manual represented “a good start.” The editorial noted the vagueness of Holder’s statement. Left unsaid was the question, if the AFM is only a “good start,” what comes next?

The Times editorial writer never bothered to mention the fact that three years earlier, a different New York Times article (12/14/2005) introduced a new controversy regarding the rewrite of the Army Field Manual. The rewrite was inspired by a proposal by Senator John McCain to limit U.S. military and CIA interrogation methods to those in the Army Field Manual. (McCain would later allow an exception for the CIA.)

According to the Times article, a new set of classified procedures proposed for the manual was “was pushing the limits on legal interrogation.” Anonymous military sources called the procedures “a back-door effort” to undermine McCain’s efforts at the time to change U.S. abusive interrogation techniques, and stop the torture.

A Forgotten Controversy

Over the next six months or so, a number of articles in the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the L.A. Times described the course of the controversy. By mid-June 2006, the NYT was reporting that, under pressure from unnamed senior generals and members of Congress (including McCain, and Senators Warner and Graham), the Pentagon was rethinking its plan to have a classified annex to the AFM, which would include a different set of interrogation rules for “unlawful combatants,” like the detainees at Guantanamo. Included in the discussion about these classified procedures were, reportedly, members of the State Department and various human rights organizations.

According to an article in the L.A. Times, this latest fight over the classified procedures went back at least to mid-May 2006. The manual itself had been written at the U.S. Army Intelligence Center at Ft. Huachuca, Arizona, roughly a year earlier, and then sent to the Pentagon for further evalution. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s right-hand man, Stephen Cambone, was put in charge of its final draft. According the L.A. Times article, members of Congress were “keen to avoid a public fight with the Pentagon.” The announcement that the controversial and still unknown procedures might not be included in the manual was seen as a success by human rights groups.

Yet the proverbial chickens never hatched, and by early September 2006 the new Army Field Manual was finally released. The section on special interrogation procedures for “unlawful combatants” was included as a special appendix (Appendix M), and published in unclassified format. According to a L.A. Times story on September 8, Cambone was crowing that the new Army Field Manual instructions would give interrogators “what they need to do the job.” The article noted:

The new manual includes one restricted technique that will only be used on so-called unlawful combatants – such as Al Qaeda suspects – not traditional prisoners of war.

That technique, called “separation,” involves segregating a detainee from other prisoners. Military officials said separation was not the equivalent of solitary confinement and was consistent with Geneva Convention protections.

As for the proposed secrecy surrounding the new techniques, the Pentagon had decided it couldn’t keep them secret forever. Senator Warner was also on record as against any classified annex to the manual.

Not long ago, I wrote about what was included in Appendix M, which purports to introduce the single technique of “separation.” In fact, the Appendix M includes instructions regarding solitary confinement, sleep deprivation, sensory deprivation, and, in combination with other procedures included in the Army Field Manual, amounted to a re-introduction of the psychological torture techniques practiced at Guantanamo, and taught by Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape, or SERE psychologists and other personnel at the Cuban base and elsewhere.

The rewrite of the Army Field Manual included other seemingly minor changes. It introduced dubious procedures, such as the “False Flag” technique, wherein interrogators could pretend they were from another country. It also redefined the meaning of “Fear Up,” a procedure meant to exploit a prisoner’s existing fears under imprisonment. Now, interrogators could create “new” fears. The AFM rewrite was a masterpiece of subterfuge and double talk, which could only have been issued from the offices of Rumsfeld and Cambone.

One would think this turnaround of the Pentagon’s position regarding a removal of these controversial procedures would have been a matter of some note. But there was no protest from Congress, no mention of the past controversy in the press, and only vague comments at first and then acceptance by human rights organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. Only Physicians for Human Rights protested the inclusion of the techniques listed in Appendix M. For the rest… silence.

DoD Rolls Out the New Model

On September 6, 2006, a news briefing was held by the Department of Defense, as part of the unveiling of the new Army Field Manual, in conjunction with the then-new Defense Department Directive for Detainee Programs (DoD Directive 2310.01E). Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Detainee Affairs Cully Stimson and Army Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (G-2) Lt. Gen. John Kimmons were the DoD presenters.

Much of the belief that the AFM provides an improvement over previous policies of the Department of Defense is likely due to a confusion between the two documents introduced that summer of 2006, the new Detainee Program Directive and the new Army Field Manual.

DoD Directive 2310.10E made a number of changes in regards to detainee operations and management. It made clear that “All persons subject to this Directive shall observe the requirements of the law of war, and shall apply, without regard to a detainee’s legal status, at a minimum the standards articulated in Common Article 3 to the Geneva Conventions of 1949…” The same type of language appears in the text of the Army Field Manual itself.

During the press briefing on September 6, and a different one
the next day for the foreign press, reporters were not so easily fooled.

One unnamed reporter at the DoD briefing challenged Lt. Gen. Kimmons on the “single standard” issue:

   Q General, why was the decision made to keep these categories — the separate categories of detainees? You have traditional prisoners of war and then the unlawful enemy combatants. Why not treat all detainees under U.S. military custody the exact same way?

Kimmons’s answer quickly veered into unacceptable territory, and Stimson had to jump in to clarify, as this excerpt demonstrates (emphasis added):

   GEN. KIMMONS: Well, actually, the distinction is in Geneva through the Geneva Convention, which describes the criteria that prisoner — that lawful combatants, such as enemy prisoners of war — which attributes they possess — wearing a uniform, fighting for a government, bearing your arms openly and so on and so forth. And it’s all spelled out fairly precisely inside Geneva.

   Geneva also makes clear that traditional, unlawful combatants such as in the — 50 years ago, we would have talked about spies and saboteurs, but also now applies to this new category of unlawful — or new type of unlawful combatant, terrorists, al Qaeda, Taliban.

   They clearly don’t meet the criteria for prisoner of war status, lawful combatant status, and so they’re not entitled to the — therefore to the extra protections and privileges which Geneva affords.

But Stimson’s clarification was not very helpful. In fact, if a prisoner is judged not a “lawful combatant”, then he or she immediately becomes covered by Geneva IV, the “Civilian Convention,” which protects anyone “who, at a given moment and in any manner whatsoever find themselves” held prisoner. According to the International Red Cross Commentary on the Geneva Conventions:

   Every person in enemy hands must have some status under international law: he is either a prisoner of war and, as such, covered by the Third [POW] Convention, [or] a civilian covered by the Fourth Convention…. There is no intermediate status; nobody in enemy hands can fall outside the law.

Separation and Sensory Deprivation

One questioner took on the topic of the “Separation” technique. Wasn’t it the same as solitary confinement, and wasn’t solitary confinement “banned by Common Article 3 in the affront to human dignity, other provisions? “Are you confident,” a reporter asked, “that separation is permitted under Common Article 3?”

The Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Detainee Affairs responded by denying that separation amounted to solitary confinement, even though the AFM describes the technique as, among other things “physical separation” “limited to 30 days of initial duration.” Extensions for such physical separation must be reviewed and approved the General Officer or Flag Officer who initially approved the original “separation.”

Kimmons’ reply was even more disingenuous:

We have always segregated enemy combatants on the battlefield at the point of capture and beyond, to keep them silent, segregate the officers from the enlisted, the men from the women, and so forth. That’s traditional; it goes back to World War II and beyond.

So, is “separation” a matter of segregating prisoners, or what? In the Army Field Manual itself, one gets that same kind of double talk. At first it is presented thus:

The purpose of separation is to deny the detainee the opportunity to communicate with other detainees in order to keep him from learning counter-resistance techniques or gathering new information to support a cover story; decreasing the detainee’s resistance to interrogation.

This description sounds a lot like segregation for security purposes, although there is that phrase “decreasing the detainee’s resistance.” A page or so later, however, we find the following (emphasis added):

The use of separation should not be confused with the detainee-handling techniques approved in Appendix D [Guide for Handling Detainees]. Specifically, the use of segregation during prisoner handling (Search, Silence, Segregate, Speed, Safeguard, and Tag [5 S’s and a T]) should not be confused with the use of separation as a restricted interrogation technique.

Furthermore, we learn that “separation” requires an interrogation plan, and medical and legal review, as well, of course, as “physical separation.” If this is not solitary confinement for the purposes of breaking a prisoner down for interrogation, then the English language has lost all purpose in explaining things.

Another line of questioning took on the AFM’s contention that it banned sensory deprivation. The entire exchange at the September 6 hearing is worth reproducing here. It represents, among other things, the most thorough line of inquiry I have seen by any reporter in quite some time. The following quote contains added emphases.

    Q General, as an expert in interrogations, do you believe that sensory deprivation was abusive, or did it ever prove to be helpful in interrogation?

   GEN. KIMMONS: Sensory deprivation is abusive and it’s prohibited in this Field Manual, and it’s absolutely counterproductive, in my understanding of what we have used productively. Sensory deprivation, just to be clear — and we define it in the Field Manual, but basically, it comes down to the almost complete deprivation of all sensory stimuli, light, noise, and so forth, and to the point where it can have an adverse mental, psychological effect on a — disorienting effect on a detainee.

   Q So could there be deprivation of light alone for extended periods of time, as opposed to complete sensory deprivation?

   GEN. KIMMONS: I think the total loss of an external stimulus, such as deprivation of light, would not fit what we have described here as — for example, if you’re hinting about separation, separation does not involve the darkness or lack of that type of sensory stimulation.

   Q That wasn’t the question, though. Would sensory — would the deprivation of light alone be permitted under the current manual, as opposed — because you described sensory deprivation as total deprivation —

   GEN. KIMMONS: That’s correction.

   Q — of all senses. So deprivation of light alone for extended periods would be permitted?

   GEN. KIMMONS: I don’t think the Field Manual explicitly addresses it.

   It does not make it prohibited. And it would have to be weighed in the context of the overall environment. If it was at nighttime during sleep hours, then it would make personal sense to turn the lights off.

   Q You know what I’m talking about. I’m trying to get at — because you said specifically total sensory deprivation — so deprivation of any one sense might be permitted. Like light, for example. They could be kept in the dark for extended periods of time beyond the usual nighttime hours.

This is really too specific and challenging for the DoD briefers, and they turn on their double-talk machine:

   MR. STIMSON: Jim, questions like this are good questions to ask. And what’s important to remember is that interrogation plans are put together for a reason so that not just one person can decide what he or she wants to do and then run off and do it. They’re vetted. It’s laid
out how they’re vetted. General Kimmons could go into that in exhaustive detail. Typically, there would be a JAG, as I understand it, General Kimmons —

   GEN. KIMMONS: That’s correct.

   MR. STIMSON: — that would have to review that. It goes up through various chains of command. And so, you know, types of questions like this would have to be asked and then vetted through that process.

Burying the Story

With all the hard questioning by the press, you’d think the issues would have been aired in the media in the days and weeks following the introduction of the Army Field Manual. As should be evident by now, that’s not what happened.

Here’s how the L.A. Times covered it (9/6/06), getting the story exactly backwards (emphasis added):

   Bowing to critics of its tough interrogation policies, the Pentagon is issuing a new Army field manual that provides Geneva Convention protections for all detainees and eliminates a secret list of interrogation tactics.

   The manual, set for release today, also reverses an earlier decision to maintain two interrogation standards – one for traditional prisoners of war and another for “unlawful combatants” captured during a conflict but not affiliated with a nation’s military force.

There is no mention of Appendix M or any controversy over techniques. Jumana Musa, an “advocacy director for Amnesty International, is quoted as noting, “”If the new field manual embraces the Geneva Convention, it is an important return to the rule of law.'”

The 9/7/06 article in the Washington Post was, if anything, even more laudatory of the new AFM:

   Pentagon officials yesterday repudiated the harsh interrogation tactics adopted since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, specifically forbidding U.S. troops from using forced nudity, hooding, military dogs and waterboarding to elicit information from detainees captured in ongoing wars.

   The Defense Department simultaneously embraced international humane treatment standards for all detainees in U.S. military custody, the first time there has been a uniform standard for both enemy prisoners of war and the so-called unlawful combatants linked to al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other terrorist organizations.

The article falsely claims the AFM bans manipulation of sleep patterns. Regarding any controversy, the article explains:

   Three expanded techniques — good cop, bad cop; pretending to be an official from another country; and detention in a separate cell from others — are allowed but require approval from senior officers. Officials originally considered keeping those three techniques classified but decided to make them public for the sake of full transparency.

The Post article also briefly mentions the generally positive response of human rights groups:

   “This is the Pentagon coming full circle,” said Tom Malinowski, Washington advocacy director for Human Rights Watch. “This is very strong guidance.”

As for the human rights organizations, Amnesty International later essentially signed off on the AFM. In an article from the Winter 2007 issue of Amnesty International Magazine, Jumana Musa, quoted in the L.A. Times article above, had this to say about the new AFM:

   AIUSA also worked with U.S. representatives and senators to introduce legislation to create a single, transparent standard for interrogations and to limit the CIA to approved interrogation techniques outlined in the Army Field Manual.

In a telephone interview for this article, Mr. Malinowski said he supported using the Army Field Manual as a replacement for the CIA “enhanced interrogation techniques,” and described the question of abuse in Appendix M as not entirely clear. The language in Appendix M was “ambiguous,” and open to criticism due to a “lack of clarity.” He maintained, however, that using the current Army Field Manual as a model was merely a beginning, and that a new overhaul of interrogation techniques was on the agenda.

A call made to Amnesty International’s press contact regarding this issue, and an e-mail sent to Jumana Musa, were both unreturned.

Conclusion

Two conclusions can be drawn from the above examination of the “selling” of the Army Field Manual to the American public in the late summer of 2006 and beyond. One is that reporters on the beat were very aware of the origins and implications of the issues surrounding Geneva and the AFM, and the controversies surrounding the use of isolation and other techniques under the rubric of “Separation.” The extremely muted or non-existent discussion in the mainstream press of these issues after the AFM was introduced means that a decision to suppress these issues was made at an editorial level, and were not the result of laziness or dilatory reporting on behalf of reporters.

Secondly, the role of some human rights organizations in promoting the new Army Field Manual — in particular, the actions of Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch — are curious, to say the least. Press reports and the interview with Malinowski show that inclusion of certain human rights organizations in the vetting of the AFM started at the very beginning. We may not be able to find out what went on in the editorial offices of the nation’s top newspapers, but we should know more about the discussions within the human rights organizations on how they advised, or were fooled, by talks with Bush administration and Pentagon personnel.

Meanwhile, other human rights organizations, such as the Nobel Prize-winning Physicians for Human Rights, have criticized the language and techniques described in Appendix M of the Army Field Manual, and called for rescission of the offending text. In a letter to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in May 2007, Leonard S. Rubenstein, Executive Director of PHR, and retired Brigadier General Stephen N. Xenakis, MD, former Commanding General of the Southeast Regional U.S. Army Medical Command, wrote:

The new Army Field Manual on human intelligence gathering… explicitly prohibits several SERE-based techniques, yet Appendix M of the manual explicitly permits what amounts to isolation, along with sleep and sensory deprivation. The manual is silent on a number of other SERE-based methods, creating ambiguity and doubt over their place in interrogation doctrine….

   PHR, therefore, respectfully urges you to take the following actions:

   1. Fully implement the OIG’s recommendation to “preclude the use of Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape physical and psychological coercion techniques” in all interrogations. (Id, pp. 29-30.) This includes rescission of Appendix M of the new Army Field Manual and specific prohibition, by name, of each of the known SERE-based methods and their equivalents.

It seems likely that the Army Field Manual, whether by executive order (most likely) or by legislation, will become the new “single standard” for U.S. interrogation. Press reports hint that the Obama administration may yet allow a loophole for CIA interrogators. I don’t know how that will sit with the many military lawyers and officers who have been instrumental in opposing Bush/Rumsfeld’s torture policies from the beginning. I’m th
inking of people like Alberto Mora and Antonio Taguba, or the new nominee for DoD General Counsel, Jeh Charles Johnson, who apparently intends to seriously change the policies set by his predecessor, Jim Haynes.

In any case, the full history and controversy behind torture and U.S. interrogation policy deserves a full airing. What happened, for instance, between June and September 2006, allowing for Pentagon acceptance of the Appendix M abusive procedures? When it comes to the implementation of a host of torture and cruel, inhumane interrogation techniques by the U.S. government, both an investigation and prosecutions are needed.

It will be a challenge for our society to bring out the full story, while also bringing to justice those individuals who broke both domestic law and international treaty. We will need both investigations and prosecutions in order settle scores with the past, to understand where we stand now, and what we need to change to move forward.

Also posted at Invictus

President Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder must appoint a Special Prosecutor to conduct a formal investigation without political considerations and prosecute any and all government officials who have participated in War Crimes.

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Hockey Mom for Obama

31 Friday Oct 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Barack Obama, John McCain, missouri, Sarah Palin

Nice jersey.

McCain is Against Housing for Homeless Children: Open Debate thread

16 Thursday Oct 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 21 Comments

Tags

debate, earmark, John McCain, missouri, Pork Barrel

Every time John McCain utters his opposition to pork barrel earmark spending, remember that he’s talking about his opposition to projects like federal funding for at-risk and homeless youth in Kansas City, community health centers all across Missouri, early childhood education in Springfield and Saint Louis, and so on. If you wondering what else, take a look at Sunlight Foundation’s Earmark Watch. Just enter your zip code, city, or state.

Consider this an open thread for the debate.

P-D Blogger Gets Debate Wrong

08 Wednesday Oct 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 5 Comments

Tags

Barack Obama, John McCain, kevin mcdermott, missouri, presidential debate, saint louis post-dispatch

It’s always funny to see pundits and reporters try to project what other people will think of events based purely on their own gut feeling. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Springfield, IL bureau chief Kevin McDermott tried to do just that when he pulled blogger duty for the Political Fix debate coverage:

(My prediction so far is that McCain might be declared, slightly, the winner on style, but neither will be viewed as having changed the race)

Not surprisingly, Mr. McDermott was wrong.

CBS News: 39% Obama, 27% McCain

CNN: Obama 54% McCain 30%

Greenberg/Quinlan/Rosner: Obama 42% McCain 24%

Interestingly, as McDermott admits in a later post, Obama crushed McCain in likability and on who sounds more like a normal politician (McCain sounded the most like an ordinary politician), not to mention on every single issue, from Iraq and the war on terror to health care to the economy. So on style AND on substance, Obama came out ahead.

Leave the projection out of it, pundits. You have snap polls that give us fuller and more accurate information about the reactions of ordinary citizens coming out minutes after a debate. No reason to pretend you know what they might think better than they do.

"The only true maverick is James Garner."

05 Sunday Oct 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

John McCain, maverick, Sarah Palin

What Randy said.

A couple of more thoughts on the use of the word “maverick.” I wonder if it’s the right moment for McCain to constantly describe himself using a word that essentially means “unpredictable” when the country is looking for someone with a steady hand, calm in a crisis. It doesn’t help when McCain’s campaign is erratic, too.

And the word “maverick” comes from Samuel Maverick, a 19th century Texas rancher who refused to brand his cattle. His fellow ranchers thought him independent because of this fact, but his failure to brand his cattle signified a lack of interest in actually ranching. So maybe it is the perfect word to describe John McCain, a senator with a fake ranch, a candidate who takes risks to show how “mavericky” he is but who shows little interest in actually governing.

 

Another Hard-hitting Ad Comes to Missouri

01 Wednesday Oct 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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California Nurses Association, John McCain, missouri, Sarah Palin

Nice. Another independent anti-Palin ad will be airing in Missouri this week, this one put together by the California Nurses Association. The ad implicitly refers to McCain’s health by repeatedly referring to a heart monitor, while running through a greatest hits list of Sarah Palin’s negatives. The list is good (wants to teach creationism, took on a personal vendetta as Governor, charged rape victims for exams, etc.) but it would have been nice to at least include a reference to a source with each claim. And I would have also preferred the ad to link this all back to McCain’s judgement, just as the ad implicitly links Palin to McCain’s health. Still, good ad.

Watch the ad:

SurveyUSA says: McCain 48, Obama 46

26 Friday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 6 Comments

Tags

Barack Obama, John McCain, missouri

SurveyUSA says 48/46 McCain

I’d mention the Research2000 polling, but internals are currently hard to come by, and i’m reading either 47/46 McCain or 49/45 McCain there. Or both at different times. I’ll save some posting for other front-pagers though.

The internals for SurveyUSA..

Males (50%): 50/44 McCain

Females (50%): 48/47 Obama

18-34 (24%): 57/37 Obama

35-49 (31%): 51/44 McCain

50-64 (26%): 49/44 McCain

65+ (19%): 58/38 McCain

18-49 (55%): 50/45 Obama

50+ (45%): 52/41 McCain

White (86%): 53/42 McCain

African-American (10%): 83/14 Obama

Republican (32%): 89/8 McCain

Democratic (38%): 82/14 Obama

Independent (23%): 48/41 McCain

North MO (14%): 60/34 McCain

Kansas City (19%): 55/39 Obama

SW MO (18%): 57/37 McCain

St. Louis (40%): 50/45 Obama

SE MO (9%): 50/44 McCain

Keeping in mind that I don’t know how SurveyUSA defines geography (or why the St. Louis market is going to outvote KC by two times).. Therefore, here are a few comments from those numbers.

1) 37% in SW MO? If that holds up, then things are going to be very interesting. It was Jim Talent’s soft showing in SW MO in 2006 that was a signal that he was going to have a bad night. Even after Governor Turtle’s ascent to the fencepost, McCain isn’t at 60% in Southwest Missouri?

2) 55% for the KC metro area is promising. I don’t recall Kerry getting into the high 50s for just Jackson County in 2004. Obama will roll in the KCEB section of the county and I’d imagine things should go well in the JCEB section (aka EJC).

3) 44% in Southeast MO suggests that either they’re sampling oddly random places, or the Boothill and the whole area around HD152 will give us a good enough showing for Obama. Or Cape is soft for McCain too.

So, Here is some comparison to the exit polling done at the nadir of Missouri Democratic performance (2004).

53% of voters were women in 2004, contrary to the sample used by SurveyUSA; 89/8 was the racial split in 2004. The age demos were slightly different, 20% of 18-29 voted in 2004, so those people are now 22-33, and a 4 point spike in 4 years might be a bit small. The 65+ vote is up from the 2004 sample (it was 11%, and +4 Kerry in 2004).

But in 2006 the splits included 55% female, 83/13 White, 17% over 65, and 15% who were 18-29.

So essentially we’re in House of Mirrors territory. It’s a horserace.

No word on if the Post-turtle will be debating at Wash-U next week. John McCain is debating tonight, but you never know about how available the hermit-esque VP candidate will be.

McCain Campaign Suspended… Or Not??

25 Thursday Sep 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

field office, John McCain, missouri

So John McCain sent out a message yesterday afternoon, proclaiming that he was suspending his campaign and returning to Washington to “solve the financial crisis”:

Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington after speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative. I have spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of my decision and have asked him to join me.

I am calling on the president to convene a meeting with the leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and myself. It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem.

Since McCain’s ads are still running, his flacks are on TV attacking Obama, and he gave a major campaign speech today, I wondered what kind of campaign activities McCain was actually planning on suspending. So I sent an e-mail to the local McCain field office, posing as a conservative eager to help out:

Dear Lane,

I found your e-mail address on the Missouri for John McCain website. I’m a staunch conservative who has had my fair share of disagreements with Senator McCain. Still, I can’t stand the idea of seeing the liberals take over the entire government, especially this Barrack “Osama Lover” Obama as our Commander in Chief.

I’ve seen Senator McCain take a little bit of a dip in the polls in the last few days, and it concerns me a great deal. I feel like I have to do something. I have some time from this evening through Monday, and again on future weekends, to help out. What can I do??

Thank you,

Kenny Bennett

Needless to say, in his response (posted below the fold) the local field director gave no hint of a suspension of the campaign, impending or otherwise. Only slightly less surprising is the lack of acknowledgement that McCain’s opponent was being called “Osama Lover.”

Since McCain hasn’t actually suspended any part of his campaign operation, despite his call for America to come together to work toward a common solution, we can definitely call this the gimmick that it is.

Thank you very much for your willingness to help out on the McCain campaign. There are many was to help, but phone-banking and door knocking are the areas which we need the most volunteer help.

We phone bank Monday – Saturday 9am – 9pm and Sundays 9am – 7pm. Phone banking occurs at our headquarters. Our address is 921 Fee Fee Road, Maryland Heights, 63043. We are right across the street from Westport Plaza .

We go door to door every Saturday in two shifts: 9am – 2pm and 2pm – 6pm. We most often meet near or in the precincts we are walking.

Please call (314)-542-9060 to schedule a time to come in.

Every time you complete 1,000 dials in our phone bank you’ll receive an awesome McCain Team Leader hat. Once you reach 1500 dials, you’ll receive a McCain Team Leader T-Shirt.

Every Saturday we have our “Women for McCain” phone bank. Each female phone banker will receive a free “Women for McCain” yard sign. (Men invited to help!)

Thank you again for your willingness to help! Only a short bit until November 4th! Let’s make the push together.

Lane Koch

Field Director – St. Louis

Victory 2008

314.542.9061

lane@mogop.org

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