Mark Parkinson, the Republican representative in HD 16, is a four-week incumbent. At least that’s what Cheryl Hibbeler calls him when she’s going door to door on behalf of his Democratic opponent, Kristy Manning. If a constituent confesses to not knowing who his state rep is, she points out that it’s perfectly understandable he wouldn’t know. After last February’s special election, by the time Parkinson was actually sworn in and ready to participate in the legislative session, there were only four weeks left in the session. He has no other experience in state government, having only one job on his resume, that of being an aide to Kit Bond. Manning, on the other hand, (Cheryl tells the person at the door) has worked six years in state government as an aide to Senator Joan Bray.

Ah, sad but true, though, the best qualified candidate doesn’t always win. And that’s especially true in St. Charles County where, as Kristy’s ad (just shift your eyes to the left hand column) points out, Democrats are typically outspent by Republicans 5 to 1. What’s more, the money gap is even worse than the ad lets on because that 5 to 1 gap is only the gap between the official spending of the campaigns themselves. It doesn’t take into account the spending of other organizations on behalf of the candidate. By the time the HRCC and the Missouri Right to Life have plowed some more money into the race, the gap might be closer to 8 or 9 to 1.

Like so many outspent Democrats, Kristy and her volunteers are working their tails off going door to door. So far, they’ve knocked on 7,000 doors. She herself has knocked on 4,000 and has actually spoken to a couple of thousand people. Conventional wisdom is that 2,000 personal contacts can be enough to swing a close district, and oh this one is close all right. Tom Fann lost to Parkinson last February 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent.

Kristy is by no means assuming that introducing herself to 2,000 people will hand her the election. She follows through on every personal contact with a “nice to meet you” note that includes personal details, if possible. She mentions the person’s dog or asks after the baby’s cough. And she enjoys sometimes running into those people at community functions and having them say, “Hey, you came to my door!” Thank goodness for a sharp memory because she often remembers the dog or the baby’s cough even then.

Kristy’s got 67 days to knock on more doors, and believe it: she will. Show her some love by clicking on her ad.

Eleven! Can I say it too often? That’s how many seats Dems need if they’re going to to take the House. And HD 16 in St. Charles is one of the 17 or 18 chances we have statewide to reach the magic number. So Kristy Manning’s candidacy matters. And it just got stronger, because her primary competition, Tom Fann, has dropped out in order to run for the St. Charles County Council.

Opting for the County Council race was a smart move for Fann. He stands a better chance of winning that contest, and he improves the chances of us getting the state rep seat. Here’s why: Fann, who just lost the special election there on Feb. 5th, wouldn’t, realistically, have been likely to succeed on the second try.

Manning, though, has a credible shot at it, and Fann’s withdrawal strengthens her prospects.

The DPI number (Democratic Performance Index) for that district is somewhere between 46 and 47. It’ll take more than 47 percent, of course, to win that election, but consider these additional factors in Kristy’s favor:

There’s a Democratic groundswell this year. That oughta be worth a point or two. Note that 52 percent of the primary voters in HD16 took Democratic ballots.

Furthermore, conventional wisdom holds that a well organized field campaign is worth somewhere between two and five points. The full name of the only Democrat left in this race is Kristy Organized Hard-working Manning.  

Her opponent, Mark Parkinson, did some field work in his matchup with Fann, though it’s not easy to get a handle on just how much. Because Republicans typically have more cash to spread around, they’re more likely than Dems to throw money at a race. But since Parkinson will only have eight months worth of incumbency under his belt come election day, he might feel vulnerable enough to hit the streets. Count his field game as an unknown factor in the race.

Then there’s Kristy herself: energetic, articulate, attractive. On paper, she and Parkinson start about even. Both are thirty-something and newly married, with little on their resumes beyond having been legislative aides (she for Joan Bray, he for Kit Bond). But Kristy says that when she talks to people at their door, she surprises them by not being easily pigeonholed. I asked if she could give me an example.

Sure, she said. She doesn’t run from the fact that she’s pro-choice, but people tend to assume that that stance implies a whole slew of other beliefs, like being for gun control. Kristy points out that if you’re going to grant that the Constitution protects a woman’s right to choose, perhaps you should also grant that it protects the right of citizens to own guns. She tells people that just as she believes there should be laws to regulate abortions and make them safe, there should also be laws to regulate guns and make their use safer.

She also plans to stress, in talking to people, that she has experience in how state politics works. One important lesson she’s learned is how necessary it is to have conversations with the other side and find the areas where compromise will work.

Manning is a fine candidate, with an odds-on chance of taking that seat.

One curmudgeon at Political Fix expressed doubts when she filed in late March:

Fann will win the primary and lose the general, again. And if by some fluke he doesn’t win the primary, Parkinson’s margin of victory against Manning will be even greater than it would have been against Fann.

No use in waiting 4 months, start crying in your beer now Manning supporters. Let the games begin.

We’ll see if “Jackson” is right, but I don’t think so. Manning is a smart money bet.

I never saw it coming. A Democrat filed against Tom Fann, who just lost to Republican Mark Parkinson in the special election in St. Charles HD16 on primary day. The someone who filed against Fann is Kristy Manning, a young legislative aide to Senator Joan Bray.

I met Manning last fall at a meeting of the Women’s Democratic Club for the Second Congressional District. Kristy was the speaker. She burbled cheerfully–and with undeniable authority–about the chances for the various House races in St. Charles County in ’08. In fact, she was so enthusiastic and knowledgeable that someone asked if she would consider running for office instead of just campaigning for everybody else. Cheryl Hibbeler, who knows as much about Democratic politics in that county as just about anybody, laughed and said that although Kristy’d make an excellent representative, she’d be wasted in elective office, because the Dems in St. Charles couldn’t spare her as a campaigner.  

Looks like they’re going to have to.

Kristy hasn’t run for office before, so she’s unknown to most voters in the sixteenth. In fact, one commenter at Political Fix said: “An aide to Joan Bray is running in St. Peters? Wow, she ought to get a couple of dozen votes.” That man knows less about St. Charles politics than the commenter who said: “Underestimate Kristy Manning and you do so at your own peril.”

Here’s why. Kristy’s young–late twenties? thirtyish?–but she knows, and is respected by, a large number of those in the know within Democratic politics in the area. Who knows how many thousand doors she’s knocked on for other candidates? Now that she’s up to bat, she can call in a lot of favors–and money.

And that’s just the St. Charles pols. Kristy was involved in Joan Bray’s election campaign, is a founding member of Consumers Council of Missouri, and is active in several women’s groups in the Metro area. She knows a lot of people that she can touch for contributions other than the standard donors to campaigns in past elections in St. Charles County

And those people know what a hard campaigner and superior organizer she is.

Tom Fann, on the other hand, failed to beat Mark Parkinson on Feb. 5th despite having several important factors in his favor. He was targeted by the HDCC–with money and a professional campaign manager. And since it was a special election, the volunteer pool was large; in the upcoming election, though, volunteers will be spread thin working for many different candidates. Since Fann only got 48 percent of the vote, there’s no reason to think he’ll do significantly better next fall, when he won’t have all those advantages he just had.

Still, some political watchers will argue that the Ds ought to go with Fann, who is the known quantity, rather than Manning, who is quite different in her political background and is  progressive in every respect. In the last 20 years most Dem candidates have not been proclaiming  their party affiliation loudly, attempting instead to portray themselves as “Republican lite.”  It hasn’t worked much and most  Dems want to find out if a real Democrat can succeed there.  As another Political Fix commenter said: “At least we know where she stands! Tom Fann couldn’t decide if he was Democrat or Republican.”

Exactly. If she runs as a pure progressive and gets 30 percent of the vote, we’ll have our answer, even if it’s one we don’t like. If she matches Fann’s numbers, the question will remain unanswered. But if she wins? Oh, baby, if she wins, Republicans can kiss their confidence goodbye in a large chunk of St. Charles County.