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Monthly Archives: July 2017

Why is Ann Wagner bowing out of the Senate race?

03 Monday Jul 2017

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Ann Wagner, Claire McCaskill, Election 2018, Josh Hawley, missouri

Rep. Ann Wagner (R-2) laid to rest the wide-spread speculation that she would challenge Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill next year when she announced that she planned to run instead to retain her 2nd district House seat. Wagner’s explanation:

The 2nd District is my home,” the third-term congresswoman added. “It’s where I grew up, went to school, have worked and volunteered, raised my kids, and attend church every week — there is no greater honor than representing a place and people that I love.”

Since there are many who would dispute Wagner’s assertion that she represents “people that I love,” given that she is known to treat her constituents as if they are the carriers of infectious disease and assiduously avoids all but the most controlled contact with them, her mommy-dearest statement leaves the questions about her motivations up in the air.

In recent months influential Missouri GOP figures like John Danforth and money-man Sam Fox have conspicuously snubbed Wagner while trying to persuade the new state Attorney General, Josh Hawley, to enter the Senate contest. Since Hawley is relatively inexperienced and lacks Wagner’s political contacts, many have assumed that the effort to recruit Hawley reflects nothing more than Missouri Republican sexism.

I would suggest, however, that, while sexism may play a role in the considerations that animate the GOP power-brokers in Missouri, what we are seeing is a coherent, hard-headed political strategy intended to optimize the chances to keep Wagner’s House seat safely in GOP hands and capture the Senate seat. It’s all a matter of plugging the right people into the right slots at the right time.

Wagner stays where she is – Republican lock on the 2nd remains strong

Wagner would not necessarily be a shoo-in in a state-wide race. As an elitist, corporate Republican she would likely not generate too much enthusiasm among out-state, red-meat conservatives – the same folks who often take exception to the equally corporatist GOP Senator Blunt. Being a woman may not go over as well with that particular constituency either – which is where sexism takes its obligatory bow as part of the political calculus.

On the other hand, Wagner is still the best bet for the 2nd district House race. She has consistently outperformed former Democratic challengers by a large margin. However, although the district retains a strong Republican bias, the last redistricting introduced a more moderate element into the mix. Add to that the fact that, in contrast to former years, three potentially viable Democratic candidates for the 2nd district have come forward and the state party has indicated that they will be offering more support than in past years – suggesting that folks are smelling blood in the water, and another reason that an erstwhile heavy-hitter like Wagner may have been suborned into staying where she is, for the time-being at least. Bringing in a GOP newcomer to run against a well-funded and attractive Democratic candidate could make retaining the seat quite a bit more iffy.

Hawley goes to Washington

Josh Hawley is not only a male, he’s an ultra conservative lawyer who is described by The Washington Examiner as “a conservative dream candidate ” who is “young, energetic, attractive, an outsider — a Federalist Society down the line intellectual.” His public rhetoric and participation in a rightwing religious “discrimination” Supreme Court case have established his evangelical, God-centered-government credentials. All gold I would suppose, at least in the minds of his advocates.

As for finance, one of Wagner’s strong points, given Hawley’s growing list of supporters in GOP power circles, when it comes to the filthy lucre, he shouldn’t have too difficult a time equaling or exceeding her stockpile. And, of course, there’s the fact that McCaskill, who will be running to defend her seat, is widely perceived to be among the most vulnerable Democratic senators. This could be the right time to bring a newcomer into the GOP Washington stable.

Reality check

Of course, such a strategy depends on lots of variables, some of which might just constitute the proverbial monkey wrench in GOP expectations: Trump’s plunging popularity, possible negative Obamacare repeal & replace blowback, and the degree to which Trumpian and Republican excesses have energized Democratic voters. In April, for instance, Politico noted that Democrats who have been assumed to be particularly at risk are posting “eye-popping fundraising numbers,” including Senator McCaskill whose “$2.8 million haul […] shattered fundraising records in Missouri, raising more than any other senator or Senate hopeful in her state during the first quarter of an off year.”

You know how the old saying goes: you shouldn’t count your chickens until they’re hatched. You can’t blame Missouri Republicans, however, for trying to set up the best hatchery that they can – and that effort, more than misogyny, probably accounts for Wagner’s decision. She’s always been a good little GOP trooper.

Getting closer

03 Monday Jul 2017

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

fireworks, Kingsville, missouri, Powell Gardens

Saturday night at Powell Gardens in Kingsville, Missouri:

“Booms and Blooms” – Powell Gardens, Kingsville, Missouri – July 1, 2017.

Previously:

Celebrating a little early (July 2, 2017)

Welcome to Missouri and America in 2017 (July 2, 2017)

Welcome to Missouri and America in 2017

02 Sunday Jul 2017

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

4th of July, Confederacy, flag, Kingsville, missouri, Powell Gardens, Treason

Flag with a blue field and a single white star displayed by someone in the audience at the annual “Booms and Blooms” concert and fireworks display at Powell Gardens in Kingsville, Missouri – July 1, 2017. Photo used with permission.

Last night the Lee’s Summit Symphony Orchestra played a two hour outdoor concert of patriotic music to celebrate the 4th of July preceding the annual “Booms and Blooms” fireworks show at Powell Gardens in Kingsville, Missouri. Throughout the concert someone in the audience prominently displayed a large flag with a blue field and a single white five pointed star in front of the orchestra.

A flag with a blue field and a single white star is called the “Bonnie Blue” flag. It is most prominently known as an early flag of the confederacy.

Think about that for just a second.

Next to “Dixie’s Land,” perhaps no other song was as well loved by the Confederate soldier as “The Bonnie Blue Flag.” Written by Harry Macarthy (1834-1888) and sung to the old Irish tune “The Irish Jaunting Car,” the song lays out the order of secession of the States that went on to form the Confederacy.   The first flag of the Confederacy was a single white star on a blue background. This song, especially popular in the South during the early years of the war, counts out the eleven seceding states one by one….

More on the song:

….After the Civil War and the collapse of the Confederacy, “The Bonnie Blue Flag” developed a life of its own. In the second decade of the twentieth century, the song was revived as a symbol of “Lost Cause” mentality in the midst of fifty-year commemorations of the War. During the Civil Rights era, “The Bonnie Blue Flag” once again became a song of protest, this time against the integration of public spaces. It even found its way back into the classroom, as one New Orleans resident remembers learning it in his elementary school classroom in the 1950s….

The refrain from the song [pdf]:

[….]
Hurrah!
Hurrah!
For Southern rights, hurrah!
Hurrah for the Bonnie Blue Flag that bears a single star.
[….]

We have no idea if the individual(s) who displayed the flag were aware of the history or of the symbolism implied. The flag in the photo appears to be displayed upside down (with the single point of the star pointed downward).

The only confederate flag that matters is a white rag on a stick.

Previously:

Celebrating a little early (July 2, 2017)

Jay Ashcoft hearts Kris Kobach

02 Sunday Jul 2017

Posted by willykay in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Election Integrity Commission, Jay Ashcroft, Kris Kobach, privacy, voter suppression

This last week the childish vitriol emanating from the White House – and you know I mean the infamous Mika-Joe tweet tantrum – finally just did me in. It struck me that surely nobody, but nobody, outside his crowd of dim-witted sycophants, could take the clown-in-charge seriously, and perhaps we could all just start ignoring him and concentrate on the real threats presented by the usual GOP suspects who are plugging along, doing yeoman duty on behalf of the oligarchy. But no such luck. The problem with venal crazy in high places is that it puts out tendrils and if you’re not careful, it’ll leave its slimy trails all over your own backyard.

In this case the slime trail leads from Trump’s ironically named Election Integrity Commission, which is headed up by noted voter suppression guru, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and, nominally, by Vice-President Mike Pence who, as Governor of Indiana, had his own voter suppression scandals. This commission is ostensibly an outgrowth of Donald Trump’s conviction that he would surely have won the popular vote instead of losing by three million votes were it not for voter fraud – especially voter fraud involving “illegal aliens” illegally voting. However, the commission, given its personnel and the nature of its charge, also provides an excellent tool for furthering GOP voter suppression goals, not an insignificant consideration for a president with a seriously negative approval rating who’s already holding fundraisers for his 2020 presidential run.

It’s interesting that the Election Integrity Commission’s charge is not, as one might expect if it were legitimately concerned with election integrity, to look into the very real possibility that Russia hacked election machines in 2016, but to “to protect and preserve the principle of one person, one vote” – in spite of the fact that there is no evidence that that principle is in any way at risk. In essence, its members will ignore the biggest threat to election integrity that we’ve seen for over a hundred years in order to concentrate on unsupported accusations of domestic voter fraud.

As a first step, the Commission has demanded the voter registration rolls of all 50 states, including full names, address, DOB, military status, criminal history, political party affiliation, voter record from 2006 forward, and the last four Social Security number digits of every voter. Kobach has implied that this information will be used in conjunction with other databases to determine whether or not (1) non-citizens have voted, (2) citizens have voted fraudulently via duplicate registrations; and/or (3) whether there are large numbers of moribund names on the voter rolls – which would not indicate fraud per se, but which could trigger demands for voter roll purges that, incidentally, are one of Kobach’s hallmark voter suppression tricks.

Given Kobach’s past performance, you can be sure that the Commission will likely affirm all three possibilities – he has, after all, notoriously used just this type of data to produce what experts in data analysis describe as spurious results that he has nevertheless used to disenfranchise thousands of voters. According to one analysis, the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program, the analytic tool promoted by Kobach to compare voter rolls, “disproportionately threatens solid Democratic constituencies: young, black, Hispanic and Asian-American voters.” His probity is such that he was recently fined a thousand dollars for lying in court about documents concerning voter eligibility requirements.

Which brings us to Missouri and its Secretary of State, Republican Jay Ashcroft, the man charged with safeguarding the state’s voter rolls. While as many as a dozen states have refused to comply with the demand for their voter’s private information – including five deep red states that went heavily for Trump – around twenty have indicated that they will only comply with the demand insofar as they are permitted to do so by their respective state laws – they will only deliver information that is otherwise available to the public. Ashcroft has put Missouri among the latter group. He posted this statement on the Webpage of the Office of the Secretary of State:

For 40 years under Missouri law (Ch. 115.157, RSMo) certain data is publicly available. The commission’s letter asks for ‘publicly-available’ information, which we would share with any person or organization making an open records request. We will protect Missourians’ private information. The laws of each state are different, and in Missouri, some of the data requested by the commission is open to the public. We plan to comply by providing publicly-available information per state law.

The commission’s questions are fair and we will be glad to assist in offering our thoughts on these important matters. I look forward to working with Secretary Kris Kobach and the commission on its findings and offer our support in the collective effort to enhance the American people’s confidence in the integrity of the elections process.

Personally, I’ve got nothing against sharing publicly available data with the commission provided that they pay any charges that other members of the public might be expected to pay. But did you notice how conciliatory Ashcroft’s statement is? Butter wouldn’t melt, as they say.

Of course, as Tony Messenger has ably pointed out, Ashcroft’s friendly response is more than a little hypocritical coming from the representative of a Missouri Republican party that has been throwing hysterical fits about the violation of privacy represented by the federal Real ID requirements and a proposed state-wide opioid database, as well as efforts to make campaign spending a bit more transparent. All well and good, but it strikes me that the real story is the welcoming tenor of Ashcroft’s response along with the fact that, so far at least, I’ve not heard of any anguished squeals coming from the state’s erstwhile fervid GOP defenders of privacy or states’ rights.

Ashcroft certainly is in stark contrast to many other Secretaries of State, even many of those who have also agreed to turn over the pieces of data that are otherwise publicly available. Many have voiced concerns about the security of files that contain sensitive information, as well as propriety of participating in what rather obviously seems to be, in the words of Kentucky’s Alison Grimes, an exercise that is “at best a waste of taxpayer money and at worst an attempt to legitimize voter suppression efforts across the country.”

If you have any doubts abut the goals of the commission, Richard Hassan describes its slap-dash nature:

There is no professional staff, a B-list of token Democrats to give the commission a bipartisan veneer, and the work is being done out of the Executive Office of the President. (Given that Trump is an announced candidate for the next presidential election, he’s hardly a person who can be counted on for a fair and impartial review.)

Most importantly, the commission includes a rogue’s gallery of the country’s worst voter suppressors. Not just Kobach, but former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, who was notorious for rejecting Ohio voter registration forms because they were not printed on heavy enough paper. And on Thursday, Trump added Hans von Spakovsky, one of the original leaders of what I termed the Fraudulent Fraud Squad.

And yet our Secretary of State looks forward to collaborating with a panel that all but proclaims it’s intention are anything but election integrity.

Ashcroft’s stance, though, may not really so surprising. He is, after all, a staunch advocate the state’s new Voter ID law which most of us know is no more than a subterfuge meant to depress Democratic voting turnout.  Just consider Ashcroft’s implementation efforts so far if you are still inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. It is his job to ensure that Missourians are prepared for the changes in voter requirements which went into effect in June. Significantly, according to an editorial in the Kansas City Star, days before the effective date there was still “much confusion.”

Ashcroft has done little to change that situation and it doesn’t appear likely that his educational campaign will ever rise above the perfunctory. To date, Ashcroft seems to be actively trying to get the word out to as few as possible. He has pooh-pooed the need to allocate adequate funds to send mailers out to educate the public about the new law. Instead he has opted to hold a spate of meetings across the state, often, according some attendees, involving no more than 20-30 people – meetings which are supposed to inform millions of Missourians about a major change in voting requirements. Nor has anyone I’ve talked to been able to tell me if Ashcroft’s informational meetings have involved any effort to target audiences that are most likely to be affected negatively by the new law. Finally, according to reports about the contents of his “informational” meetings, he is so uninterested in alleviating the potential negative effects of the law that he is often unable to answer pertinent questions about how the law will work.

To summarize, Ashcroft has done the bare minimum to educate Missourians about the new law, a law with the potential to disenfranchise many legitimate voters. He has made a quick speaking tour and posted some informational documents on the Webpage of the Secretary of State’s Office. The Head of the Springfield NAACP has noted that “the law and its rollout remains complicated and confusing,” adding that “we also believe the plans for notification for all who may be affected to be insufficient.”

Do any of these facts help you understand why Secretary of State Ashcroft isn’t worried about violating your privacy in this instance? Do you think he might be serving a “bigger,” more partisan, cause? Doesn’t it seem obvious why our Secretary of State is so willing to run in tandem with Kris Kobach’s voter suppression machine?

If you think you know the answers to those questions, and you don’t like what you know, you can always call one Maura Browning, the Communications Director in the Office of the Missouri Secretary of State and register your objections. The number is: (573) 526-0949

Yep, we already knew that

02 Sunday Jul 2017

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Chris Kobach, Donald Trump, Jason Kander, missouri, voter suppression

Jason Kander (D) [2015 file photo].

This morning from Jason Kander (D), via Twitter:

Jason Kander‏ @JasonKander
A bogus commission formed to justify the biggest lie ever told by a sitting President has become a vote suppressing power grab.
[….]
9:59 AM – 2 Jul 2017

There are so many big lies by Donald Trump. Choosing the biggest can be difficult.

Celebrating a little early

02 Sunday Jul 2017

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

fireworks, Kingsville, missouri, Powell Gardens

Last night at Powell Gardens:

“Booms and Blooms” – Powell Gardens, Kingsville, Missouri – July 1, 2017.

Campaign Finance: still exploring for St. Louis

01 Saturday Jul 2017

Posted by Michael Bersin in campaign finance

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

campaign finance, county executive, exploratory committee, Mark Mantovani, missouri, Missouri Ethics Commission, St. Louis

Today at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

C171152 07/01/2017 Mantovani For STL Tim Fogerty 1600 N Broadway St Louis MO 63102 Bissingers 6/29/2017 $100,000.00

[emphasis added]

That’s a lot.

Oh, and there was a little something, too, earlier in the week:

C171152 06/25/2017 Mantovani For STL Eric Karlovic 477 Kassie View Court Des Peres MO 63122 Hughes Leahy Karlovic Partner 6/23/2017 $10,000.00

[emphasis added]

That’s for a total of $375,000.00 (in four contributions) in a little over two weeks.

Exploring [pdf] for St. Louis County Executive:

Previously:

Campaign Finance: something, something, St. Louis (June 16, 2017)

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