For the comment on a post at The Turner Report about possible republican candidates challenging Senator Claire McCaskill (D) in 2012:

The United States Senate needs talent; just not Jim Talent.

It would be easy to write off these comments about the Puppy Mill proposition and the Humane Society as simply the usual rightwing irrationality:

Egg farming is now facing extinction because vegan activists and terrorists are determined to abolish animal agriculture in our country.

–Missourians for Animal Care

If the HSUS gets Prop B passed in Missouri, “they will come after livestock…’and shut agriculture down.“

–State rep. Brian Munzlinger

“HSUS has decimated the egg industry forcing chicken farmers out of business … HSUS eliminated the pork industry. (Wondering why pork prices are going sky high?) They’ve also crippled numerous other agribusinesses – dragging connected industries down with them.”

–Tea Party member Joseph Wurzelbacher

But instead of just hooting derisively at these nutjobs, you might do well to understand the economic motivation for their drivel, because money always drives right wing politics. Joe the Plumber, with his grandiose claim that HSUS is “using the referendum process to slowly, systematically eliminate food production in the United States”, is more than just a bozo with an end-of-the-world Ouija board; he’s part of agribusiness’s campaign to block any interference with its stranglehold on agriculture. Joe is referring to  ballot initiatives that passed in Florida and California. A 2002 Florida vote banned pork producers from keeping pregnant sows in gestation crates–in other words, penned up so tight that they couldn’t move. The 2008 California Proposition 2 banned “the confinement of farm animals in a manner that does not allow them to turn around freely, lie down, stand up, and fully extend their limbs.”

The profits of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) in those states suffered, and CAFO owners became indignant that the meddling Humane Society had gotten citizens boohooing over a few ill treated pigs, for god’s sake. Big ag also resents maudlin tree huggers for whining that CAFOs pollute and then refuse to pay for the damage. The Missouri Sierra Club, for example, yammers about McDonald County having plants operated by Tyson, Simmons and MoArk, with CAFOs for all three corporations. Every water body in that county is on the impaired water bodies list.  And, not content with moaning about cruelty to animals and damage to the environment, activists complain that CAFOs harm human health with the hormones and antibiotics that they pump into those animals. Ask any exec at Tyson, and he’ll tell you that those namby-pambies are always harping about the wrong stuff.

Well. Cargill, Con-Agra, Purina, Monsanto, Nabisco, Kellogg, Nestle–the whole multi-billion dollar food/feed/distribution industry–aren’t about to let a few marginal, relatively impotent sentimentalists bellyache loud enough to interfere with their hegemony. So here’s the plan: be a victim and instill fear. (Stick with traditional Republican values.) Act as if li’l ole HSUS and PETA (with its anti-fly-swatting ideology) could cripple American agriculture. Pretend they want to starve everybody.

Say what?!

I know, but that’s their story, and you know how tenacious Republicans are about sticking to an insane assertion until it finally takes hold.

Case in point: I sat at the state Senate hearing last spring about the proposed puppy mill reform and heard every member of the ag committee–including Democrats Wes Shoemyer and Frank Barnitz–vent about urban interference in rural matters. They bemoaned what a tough time they’re having, as farmers, making ends meet. Would that be because CAFOs are driving them out of business? It would. But they don’t seem to notice that.

By the way, there’s no indication that the Humane Society intends to target CAFOs in this state. Hell, it probably won’t even get a toehold on cruelty to puppies. The Republican legislature is laying plans to override the voters’ will. Rightwing paranoia that the puppy mills are an opening salvo against all agriculture in the state makes no more sense than their claims, in 1998, that banning cockfighting would end all hunting and fishing. But hey, who remembers that silly claim anymore? That fight is ancient history.

We’re in the now. And right now, regulating puppy mills in Missouri will starve all Americans. And don’t you forget it.  

Approximately one hundred individuals attended a fundraiser in Warrensburg for the Johnson County Democratic Club

and Democratic Central Committee on Saturday evening.

The Johnson County Democratic Club and Democratic Central Committee held a fundraiser this evening at the Warrensburg Community Center. The premise is simple – charge admission for a potluck “Festival of Soups” and breads, auction desserts and a bit of political memorabilia, and give Democrats an excuse and opportunity to get together and raise money in preparation for the next election cycle. The overhead is low. The facility rental is nominal. Volunteers make their favorite soups, breads, and desserts. Those paying admission are issued three tickets which they use to vote for their favorites in the three categories. The competition can get fierce – at times there can be trash talking and lobbying for votes. There have even been rumors that some competitors bought extra admission tickets so they could stuff ballot boxes.

This annual event raises a significant amount of seed money to help the club and committee operate for the coming year and election cycle.  

Yesterday, at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

CONTRIBUTION OF MORE THAN $5,000.00 RECEIVED BY ANY COMMITTEE FROM ANY SINGLE DONOR – TO BE FILED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF RECEIVING THE CONTRIBUTION

A101422 CITIZENS FOR A STRONGER ST LOUIS [pdf] 11/12/2010

St. Louis Cardinals, LLC

700 Clark Street

St Louis, MO 63102

11/12/2010

$15,000.00

[emphasis added]

Citizens for a Stronger St. Louis was organized as a committee [pdf] on November 2nd to support the earnings tax continuation in the city of St. Louis for the election to be held on April 5, 2011.

Voters in St. Louis and Kansas City can thank Rex Sinquefield and his millions for that opportunity.

In October I reported that my State Representative, Andrew Koenig (R-88), was crowing about reviving the fair tax initiative that limped into obscurity last year. The plan is to eliminate the state income tax and replace it with a regressive sales tax.

Sure enough, the newly-minted Speaker, Rep. Steve Tilley (R-106), has identified the sadly misnamed fair tax as one of his big legislative priorities (right along with busting unions via right-to-work legislation). Not surprisingly, the Wonkroom reports that Mr. Tilley – who ran unopposed – is in receipt of some $200,000 in campaign contributions from one Rex Sinquefield. Looks like Sinquefield was gunning for bigger game even before he was sure that the $11,218,000 that he spent was going to snare enough voters to pass Prop. A.

Proposition A has the potential to decimate the budgets of Kansas City and St. Louis, but eliminating the state income tax will amount to a blitzkreig on the poor and middle class in the entire state:

Completely eliminating the Missouri income tax would cost the state about $6 billion, when the state is already facing a nearly $1 billion shortfall in its 2012 budget. Missouri business groups are also pushing the new GOP legislature to repeal the state’s corporate income tax, costing another $500 million.

When the fair tax was proposed last year, the Missouri Budget Project demonstrated that sales taxes would have to be uniformly raised to 11% to compensate for the lost revenue (think about adding 11% onto the price of your next new car, onto your grocery bill, and to just about everything else that you buy). The fair tax plan outlined by Koenig, which is, I presume, the plan that Tilly endorses, specifies that the sales tax will be no more than 7%. Given that Missouri sales taxes currently vary from 4.25% to 9.421% in different jurisdictions, it is difficult to see how this tax alone will compensate for lost revenue. You think that budget cuts have been draconian this last year? Just wait and see what happens if this piece of rotten tripe becomes state law.

And who will the fair tax affect the most? The great majority of Missourians whose incomes cluster somewhere in the vicinity of the $42,000 median and the 13.5% below the poverty level will feel the pain for sure, while the state’s rich business movers and shakers who pour money into GOP coffers will dance all the way to the bank with big returns on their investment. To add insult to injury, middle-class and poor Missourians are already carrying the state’s rich schmucks on their shoulders; the Wonkroom’s Pat Garofalo observes that:

Missouri already has a slightly regressive state tax system; those in the lowest income quintile can expect to pay about 10 percent of their income in state and local taxes, while those in the top one percent will pay about 5.4 percent.

And what has letting the big guys and corporations off the hook done for the state so far? Have any of you missed the fact that Missouri isn’t exactly a dynamic place to live and do business? Does anyone really think that when the state is a wholly owned subsidiary of Rex Sinquefield Inc. – which it seems well on the way to becoming – our lives will be vastly improved?

 

A bit of Missouri legal news:

Warrensburg Schools settle sexual abuse lawsuit by female athletes, will pay them $809,000

Nov 11, 2010, 10:57 PM

WARRENSBURG, Mo. – The sexual abuse lawsuit filed by six Warrensburg High School female athletes has been settled out of court, with the school district’s insurer agreeing to pay the girls $809,000….

….The girls’ attorney, Ronnie Podolefsky, told Digitalburg Thursday that while the girls were happy about the settlement, “It was never about the money. We never requested money.” It was about ethics and civil rights, she said.

This settlement says “We should be listening to our children,” Podolefsky said, and “We can stand up for what’s right.”

While the school district did not acknowledge any admission of guilt, liability or wrongdoing, Podolefsky said “The number ($809,000) speaks for itself. The settlement agreement says “…this settlement is made solely for the purpose of avoiding the expense of further litigation…”

[emphasis added]

$809,000.00 is a lot of money. It does speak for itself, don’t you think?

We first wrote about a part of this story:

Three steps behind, and to the right (January 25, 2008)

And last wrote about it:

“A Gentleman’s Agreement”?: a few small tokens of our esteem (May 16, 2010)

Interestingly, in addition to Ronnie Podolefsky, the plaintiffs also had Roxanne Conlin representing them. Yes, that Roxanne Conlin.

Jackson County is split between two election boards. One board serves Kansas City, the other board serves everything else. The board for the rest of Jackson County made their results official today.

ROY BLUNT* 63870 54.42%

ROBIN CARNAHAN 47634 40.58%

Other 5561 4.73%

TOM SCHWEICH* 61255 52.73%

SUSAN MONTEE 50567 43.53%

CHARLES W. BAUM 4203 3.62%

It was only 2 years ago that this part of Missouri reported these results

JOHN MCCAIN-SARAH PALIN* 92833 49.79%

BARACK OBAMA-JOE BIDEN 90722 48.66%

So how did it all fall apart? Let’s go region by region

7 townships make up the territory of the Jackson County Election Board. One of these townships (Blue Township aka Independence) is split 8 ways. We will look at the results for each one of the Blue Townships along with the other 6 townships, showing both the results for Carnahan/Blunt and Montee/Schweich (with the reality that Montee/Schweich was a generic “which party do you like more” vote). Map images are taken off of Dave’s Redistricting App

Blue 1

Description: NW Independence and Sugar Creek, MO. The type of precinct that any competent Democratic campaign should win every time.

2004p: Kerry 2954, Bush 2016. JK 58.9%, Bush 40.2%

2008p: Obama 2831, McCain 1868. Obama 58.8%, McCain 38.8%

2010s: Carnahan 1265, Blunt 1238. RC 46.6%, Blunt 45.6%

2010a: Montee 1390, Schweich 1140. SM 51.7%, TS 42.4%

Turnout plunge, 2008 Pres to 2010 Senate: 4812 in 08, 2715 in 10

Home area of this poster. Also worth noting that 12.24% is not the biggest plunge in support from Obama to Carnahan.

Blue 2

Description: NE Independence, moving from the city limits on one side past Missouri Highway 291 on the other.

2004p: Kerry 2961, Bush 2356. 55.2% to 43.9%

2008p: Obama 2994, McCain 2171. 56.7% to 41.1%

2010s: Carnahan 1311, Blunt 1422. 44.3% to 48%

2010a: Montee 1453, Schweich 1315. 49.6% to 44.9%

Turnout plunge: 5277 votes in 2008, 2961 votes in 2010, the biggest drop in this area. Never a great sign when 2/3rds of the McCain voters vote and half of the Obama voters don’t vote for Democrats in 2010.

Biggest drop from Obama to Carnahan. Biggest drop from Montee to Carnahan. This is also part of the 53rd House District, which Democrat Diane Egger lost to Republican Brent Lasater. Lasater spent the vast sum of under $500 to be swept into office, despite a vast disadvantage in yard signs, functioning campaign offices, and family ties.

Blue 3

Description: The most Northeastern Parts of Independence. Includes unincorporated Jackson County, bordered by the Little Blue River

2004p: Kerry 3256, Bush 3337. 49% to 50.25%

2008p: Obama 3531, McCain 3253. 51.1% to 47%

2010s: Carnahan 1664, Blunt 2163. 40.8% to 53%

2010a: Montee 1828, Schweich 2032. 45.25% to 50.3%

Turnout drop: 6915 votes in 2008, 4080 votes in 2010.

Another 10% swing. Another big Montee/Carnahan drop (you have realized why the generic statewide Dem race is being listed here, right?). Although this was an area of importance for the groundgame of the campaign, more so than Blue 2 or Blue 1. Well, we held things at the state average in Blue 3.

Blue 4

Description: The Independence Square and lots of area that was in Independence pre-annexation binge (in the 1940s). Also includes Englewood

2004p: Kerry 2750, Bush 2428. 52.5% to 46.4%

2008p: Obama 2877, McCain 2197. 55.6% to 42.5%

2010s: Carnahan 1388, Blunt 1472. 45.3% to 48.1%

2010a: Montee 1443, Schweich 1423. 47.7% to 47%

Turnout drop: 5173 votes in 2008, 3058 votes in 2010.

In an ideal world, precincts you win by 13% are not 50/50 in the next election. But then again, in an ideal world, candidates who spend under $500 don’t get elected for being in the right party.

Blue 5

Description: Independence south of Missouri-78, stretching from Blue Ridge Boulevard to Lee’s Summit Road

2004p: Kerry 3519, Bush 3455. 50.1% to 49.15%

2008p: Obama 3462, McCain 3316. 50.1% to 48%

2010s: Carnahan 1935, Blunt 2305. 42.7% to 50.8%

2010a: Montee 2095, Schweich 2183. 46.7% to 48.7%

I would point out the examples of suburban areas moving to the right, but there’s a lot of examples of that and no clear diagnosis as to the cause other than the obvious cause of “Suburbanites are not voting for us”

Blue 6

Description: Independence, mainly east of Lee’s Summit Road, includes Blue River Community College and a lot of growing areas

2004p: Kerry 3609, Bush 3741. 48.8% to 50.5%

2008p: Obama 3744, McCain 3533. 50.7% to 47.8%

2010s: Carnahan 1930, Blunt 2478. 41.15% to 52.8%

2010a: Montee 2073, Schweich 2395. 44.5% to 51.4%

You might be looking at the Blunt/McCain percentage thinking that’s the sign of future hope. Overlooking that a lot of protest votes went to two right-ring candidates due to the fact that neither Senate campaign ran much positive advertising in the first half of the campaign. It would be surprising if significantly more people voted for the third party candidates from the Dem side than from the Rep side.

Blue 7

Description: SW Independence, going all the way to Phelps Road (in-between Noland and Lee’s Summit)

2004p: Kerry 3866, Bush 3749. 50.50% to 49%

2008p: Obama 3577, McCain 3473. 49.9% to 48.5%

2010s: Carnahan 2155, Blunt 2537. 43.8% to 51.6%

2010a: Montee 2320, Schweich 2407. 47.45% to 49.2%

Blue 7 is probably the best example of what i’d call “Obama underperforming” in 2008. Or maybe the best example of a turnout drop. But the post 2004 results posted online by Jackson County don’t show the turnout of registered voters.

Blue 8

Description: SE Independence, lots of nice houses, and lots of economic development over the last 15 years

2004p: Kerry 3671, Bush 4320. 45.6% to 53.7%

2008p: Obama 3945, McCain 4115. 48.2% to 50.3%

2010s: Carnahan 2397, Blunt 3038. 42.1% to 53.4%

2010a: Montee 2585, Schweich 2868. 45.85% to 50.9%

The only Blue Township ‘realm’ won by McCain, which didn’t get drastically bluer on the Auditor’s side (Schweich beat McCain by a little over 2 percent in the areas featured in this post, but we can see that they ran even in this area). For every 1000 Blue-8 voters who voted in 2008, 695.9 of them voted in 2010, the best rate for Independence. As well, it had the most votes cast (beating Blue-7 by 700) and the most Bass Pro Centers of all the Blue areas.

Brooking

Description: Raytown, Missouri

2004p: Kerry 7559, Bush 6527. 53.3% to 46.05%

2008p: Obama 8123, McCain 5702. 57.9% to 40.6%

2010s: Carnahan 4659, Blunt 3894. 52% to 43.4%

2010a: Montee 4910, Schweich 3640. 55.2% to 40.9%

Only one township was better for Carnahan in the “not running far behind Obama” category, but that township wasn’t as important as this one. In the JCEB-area, Carnahan ran 8.1% behind Obama and here, she ran 5.9% behind Obama. Plus Raytown did not bleed turnout like the Independence townships did.

Fort Osage

Description: Northeastern Jackson County, includes small towns like Buckner, Sibley, and Levasy

2004p: Kerry 1166, Bush 1863. 38.2% to 61.1%

2008p: Obama 1240, McCain 1965. 38% to 60.3%

2010s: Carnahan 662, Blunt 1408. 29.9% to 63.7%

2010a: Montee 740, Schweich 1327. 33.9% to 60.8%

Sadly for Sibley residents (their precinct went for Obama, really), this area is out of the running for the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

Prairie

Description: Lee’s Summit, Missouri

2004p: Kerry 17136, Bush 27762. 38% to 61.6%

2008p: Obama 21589, McCain 27557. 43.5% to 55.6%

2010s: Carnahan 12818, Blunt 20167. 37.4% to 58.9%

2010a: Montee 13369, Schweich 19598. 39.4% to 57.75%

That 2008 swing sure didn’t last into 2010.

Sni-a-Bar

Description: Blue Springs and Grain Valley

2004p: Kerry 13974, Bush 20824. 39.9% to 59.5%

2008p: Obama 16464, McCain 20980. 43.4% to 55.3%

2010s: Carnahan 8656, Blunt 14741. 35.2% to 59.9%

2010a: Montee 9274, Schweich 14239. 38% to 58.3%

Biggest plunge in percent outside of Independence. This township fell back to the norm in 2010 (well, at least for Auditor)

Van Buren

Description: Southwestern Jackson County, includes Lone Jack (where everybody going to school in Warrensburg had one friend get pulled over for speeding) and Lake Lotawana

2004p: Kerry 1458, Bush 2456. 36.95% to 62.2%

2008p: Obama 1579, McCain 2591. 37.5% to 61.5%

2010s: Carnahan 989, Blunt 1964. 32% to 63.5%

2010a: Montee 1054, Schweich 1887. 34.4% to 61.6%

The best township when it comes to not having a huge drop from Obama to Carnahan. Which means nothing significant because it’s very Republican and is still very Republican. Also, for every 1000 voters who voted in 2008, 733.6 voted in 2010, the best rate of any township in 2010.

Washington

Description: Grandview, MO

2004p: Kerry 6168, Bush 3666. 62.4% to 37.1%

2008p: Obama 7121, McCain 3084. 68.9% to 29.8%

2010s: Carnahan 3764, Blunt 2193. 60.9% to 35.4%

2010a: Montee 3814, Schweich 2090. 62.4% to 34.2%

Turnout plunge: 10338 for President, 6182 for Senator

Grandview is pretty much the only area with a significant minority population in the district and it’s votes as a percentage of the 2008 votes still beat Blue 1 and 2. If 1000 people voted in Grandview in 2008, 598 of them would have voted in 2010. The overall percentage was 62.9% and the worst townships put up around 56% of their 2008 turnout in 2010.

Election results sorted by the 2008-2010 turnout plunge

Places where the 2010 vote total was under 60% of the 2008 vote total: Carnahan 49.4%, Blunt 44.7% (18996 votes, from Blue 1, 2, 3, 4 and Washington) – Obama 59.5%, McCain 38.7% (32515 votes)

Places where the 2010 vote total was over 2/3rds of the 2008 vote total: Carnahan 37.9%, Blunt 58% (50163 votes, from Blue 7, 8, Fort Osage, Prairie, and Van Buren) – Obama 44.1%, McCain 54.8% (72416 votes)

Places not included in the last two lines: Carnahan 40.15%, Blunt 54.7% (42787 votes, Blue 5, 6, Brooking, Sni-a-Bar) – Obama 48%, Obama 50.6% (66266 votes)

It’s no coincidence that the areas with the biggest plunge in turnout are the areas with the biggest drops in Democratic support in this area.

As someone who did a share of volunteering with the knowledge of where the walks were going to, I can tell you that a lot of canvassers went to Blue 3 and Blue 8. The logic being used was that from August to mid-October, voters who we had no data on were being contacted to figure out where they stood on the election.

But the problem seems to be not the people who were unknown and undecided, but the people who were passed over because we knew they were Democrats. And ultimately, the GOTV approach seemed to be a lot closer to just one visit on the last weekend. The coordinated campaign (of the MO Democratic Party and OFA) found a way to aim for one group, lay off another, only to see both groups not vote for Democrats on election day.

The 4 Blue areas which saw the biggest drops in turnout and Democratic performance will likely still be very White when the 2010 Census totals are released. The 2000 totals showed those areas standing in-between 85% to 92% and the precinct results from the 2008 primary showed strong majorities for Hillary Clinton. So I feel it would be inaccurate to categorize the drops in turnout as a “diehard Obama supporter” thing like the turnout drops in St. Louis City and Kansas City will be categorized (both areas had turnout below 40% on 11/2). Without knowing the number of registered voters in Blue 1 through 4, I’d imagine there’s no way the turnout broke 40% and may be closer to 33%

The most concise advice is the most vague advice here. Don’t move left or right. Just figure out what you actually stand for which is relevant to the voters and talk about that stuff. It seems that the Republican message was more relevant to inspiring people to vote. It may not be a message of realistic positions, but what was the alternative? Insane beats Irrelevant most of the time.

Do what our overlords and all the very the serious inside the beltway cocktail weenie circuit sycophants want us to do. Transfer the wealth – upward.

The Hijacked Commission

By PAUL KRUGMAN

Published: November 11, 2010

….So how, exactly, did a deficit-cutting commission become a commission whose first priority is cutting tax rates, with deficit reduction literally at the bottom of the list?

Actually, though, what the co-chairmen are proposing is a mixture of tax cuts and tax increases – tax cuts for the wealthy, tax increases for the middle class. They suggest eliminating tax breaks that, whatever you think of them, matter a lot to middle-class Americans – the deductibility of health benefits and mortgage interest – and using much of the revenue gained thereby, not to reduce the deficit, but to allow sharp reductions in both the top marginal tax rate and in the corporate tax rate.

It will take time to crunch the numbers here, but this proposal clearly represents a major transfer of income upward, from the middle class to a small minority of wealthy Americans. And what does any of this have to do with deficit reduction?….

Good questions. Go. Read the whole thing.

We may as well let the republicans finish the job they started, eh?

It’s plane as day.

This may not be the plane in question – we couldn’t find the registration number on it.

Today at the Missouri Ethics Commission:

CONTRIBUTION OF MORE THAN $5,000.00 RECEIVED BY ANY COMMITTEE FROM ANY SINGLE DONOR – TO BE FILED WITHIN 48 HOURS OF RECEIVING THE CONTRIBUTION

C031160 FRIENDS OF TILLEY [pdf] 11/12/2010

LEWIS & CLARK REGIONAL LEADERSHIP FUND

PO BOX 1013

ST CHARLES MO 63302

11/12/2010

$15,000.00

[emphasis added]