Upon hearing that Bill Halter unexpectedly forced a runoff with Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, I thought of the same thing as Willy. But I don’t think we’ll have our very own Bill Halter knocking off Claire McCaskill in 2012. (Obviously, things change in even 2 years, so don’t hold me to that.)
The big difference is that Arkansas is an overwhelmingly Democratic state, despite how it votes in presidential elections. Three out of four congressional representatives are Democrats. The US senators are both Democrats. The Governor and Lt. Governor are both Democrats. Out of 35 Arkansas state senators, 27 are Democrats. Out of 100 Arkansas state representatives, 72 are Democrats.
You might think this is immaterial in a Democratic primary, but that’s a large pool of potential challengers for a sitting US Senator, especially to challenge a US Senator who dithers on key Democratic issues like energy, health care, and financial regulation. In Missouri, the numbers aren’t as bad for the Democrats as they are for Republicans in Arkansas, but Republicans have a healthy majority in both houses of the state legislature, especially in the higher profile State Senate. None of the Democratic state legislators, nor even the Democratic congressmen, seem to me to have the statewide profile to reach for McCaskill’s Senate seat.
And the fact that Arkansas elects a lot of Democrats is also important; an ambitious Democratic legislator or statewide elected official has to like their chances in Arkansas, if they can figure out a way to overcome the opposition in a primary. In Missouri, defeating an incumbent is not the only incredibly difficult challenge; it’s the first step. That’s got to give a potential McCaskill challenger pause.
Finally, as much as we wring our hands about crappy votes that McCaskill has made in the past and continues to make, she’s a lot better than Lincoln [See here for why I struck that out], McCaskill is viewed more favorably by Democrats in Missouri than Lincoln is in Arkansas.
One area where Democrats in Missouri have managed to do well in the last two cycles is the executive branch, so if McCaskill got a challenge in 2012, you’d probably expect it to come from there. Attorney General Koster is probably the only one I could see doing it, although State Treasurer Clint Zweifel is certainly bright and driven enough to be a US Senator.
Then again, as I said at the beginning of the post, 2 years is a long time in politics, and if McCaskill’s numbers stay this far down, someone from her own side of the aisle might start thinking about going after her seat.
as I suggested in the last paragraph of my post. However, the biggest problem that I see for McCaskill is that progressive disillusionment with her could lead to a lack of enthusiasm that might cost her what, if I remember correctly, was a pretty thin winning majority. Maybe she can make that up and maintain her margins by picking up more of the conservative-leaning independents – which Lincoln seemed to have done – but who knows.
God knows that in spite of her “moderation” she certainly won’t pick up any of the Tea Party crowd and their sympathizers since they are propelled by blind animus and noting she does could placate them to judge by comments on fringy Web sites.
Certainly, in spite of her mush-mouth centrism, she’s better than the Republican alternative. I find myself torn between that consideration and a growing belief that if we keep telling ourselves that, holding our nose and voting for the lesster of two evils, we will always have a weak Democratic party dominated by what somebody somewhere (I can’t remember where) called the shills in the left pocket of the corporations rather than the Republicans who live in right pockets of corporations.
McCaskill stinks. Unless she radically changes course over the next two years, she won’t get any of my money and she won’t get my vote.
I won’t vote for her opponent but I sure as shit won’t vote for her.
Her victory margin last time was in the 2% range, it was far more comfortable for a Dem than I would have expected.
But, if 2% of librul Dems like me sit on our asses next time around for her, she’s gone.
Yes, I’m cutting off my nose despite my face. I don’t care.
I do feel that if she’s primaried out of existence, we would lose the seat. I would guess that whatever passes for the Dem party statewide would bring enourmous pressure on the Kosters and Zweifels to not run against her unless she’s caught strangling kittens in front of 5 year old preschoolers.
She’s an idiot. Okay, she’s a bright person but look at her record thus far, it’s a primer in how to alienate their base with the expectation that independents and Republicans will reward their cowardice.
It never works out that way and her poll numbers prove it.
She’s been scared shitless of offending independents and Republicans since she entered office. So, how’s that worked out for ya Claire?