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Robin Carnahan (D) stays ahead of Roy Blunt (r-“I swear I had a health care plan in here somewhere”) in Nate Silver’s prognostication of the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Missouri:


Senate Rankings, Decemeber [sic] 2009 Edition

by Nate Silver @ 4:20 AM

Races are ranked in order of their likelihood of changing parties by November 2010, accounting for all factors such as potential retirements, primary challenges, and so forth…

…3. Missouri (R-Open) — Robin Carnahan’s polling has been very stable, continuing to show her with a very slight lead. That’s probably because her opponent, Roy Blunt, is a rather vocal member of the sitting Republican Congress, which is losing popularity just as quickly as the Democrats in Congress are. He’s the wrong candidate for this type of cycle…

Rough translation: being an obstructionist republican hack does not bode well, even in an off year election.