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To be clear, following up on dissonantdissident’s comment earlier, the process for a special election for a Senate district is different than a normal election. The nominee for each party will be decided not by a primary, but by a selection by the Senatorial District Committee. That’s from Section 4.9 of the Missouri Democratic Party bylaws.

Even more interesting – the committee is composed of all the Democratic committeepeople in the district, and their vote is weighted by Democratic vote for governor in their part of the district in the last gubernatorial election. Every 1,000 votes (or major fraction thereof) in the last general election for the Democratic nominee in the ward gets one vote. I’m not sure if it’s reweighted based on how much of the ward lies within the district, but I don’t see anything in the rules that indicate a further reweighting. (Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong, of course.)

Here the wards in the district, along with vote totals for Jay Nixon, who the committeeman and committeewoman for the ward are, and what part of the district the ward lies in (N=North, C=Central, and S=South.)

4th Senatorial District Committee

So looking at those totals, and assuming I haven’t made an error in my assumptions, it looks like wards on the north side will have a total of 37 votes out of 88, southside wards in the district will have 32, and 19 belong to the central corridor. Naturally, this is a really crude description of how the voting blocs will coalesce in the committee, and they might not break down along regional lines at all. And of course this process only selects the Democratic nominee; it’s unlikely but possible that an independent could get on the ballot and win the election, and even less likely but still fractionally possible that the Republican nominee could still win in the special election.

To say the least, it will be very interesting to see who throws their hat in the ring. and who gains the support of which committeepeople. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Someone has their math wrong (and I would not be surprised if that someone is me.) St. Louis American’s Political Eye has the northside with 70 votes and the southside with 73.