As Fired Up notes, FiveThirtyEight.com now has Missouri as the second most likely state to exchange a Republican Senator for a Democrat in 2010:

2 . Missouri (R-Open)

In Missouri, conversely, the money numbers favor the Democrats, with Robin Carnahan having out-fundraised Roy Blunt about 2:1 in the first quarter. Although Missouri has gradually trended red at the Presidential level, Carnahan may simply be the more talented candidate and this increasingly feels like a lean Democratic race

Indeed, I’d probably rank us even higher, based on the available evidence. For any candidate, let alone a veteran member of Congress and one-time party leader, Blunt’s fundraising was weak, and he faces a possible bitter primary challenge. And Robin Carnahan is an exceptionally popular politician with a popular last name (as opposed to her Republican counterpart.)

Still, let’s not get complacent here. I’ve seen a couple of decent stump speeches from Robin Carnahan, but her campaign hasn’t been all that active yet. And as disciplined as Carnahan is, she’s not immune from flubs, as the EFCA episode revealed. And a “bitter primary” might actually enable Sarah Steelman to overtake Roy Blunt and actually establish herself as a “credible” outsider and hone her campaign for a tough general election.