DailyKos’ Research 2000 poll shows that Kit Bond may be vulnerable–at least to a challenge by Robin Carnahan:
Bond (R) 47
Carnahan (D) 43This bit of info should be particularly alarming to Republicans:
Bond
Approve 49
Disapprove 43
No Opinion 8Carnahan
Approve 48
Disapprove 26
No Opinion 26
Bond has always struck me as a cagey politician, an opportunist who is adroit at balancing partisan interests with those of a more purely local, tribal nature. Hence his affinity for budget pork, and his willingness to buck the hardline conservatives in the Republican party when it comes to, for instance, throwing some dollars at Detroit in order to save Missouri auto-manufacturing jobs. But are these numbers a sign that he is beginning to lose his equilibrium?
1970: 58.1% (won by 16.2%)
1972: 55.2% (won by 10.5%)
1976: 49.55% (lost by 0.7%)
1980: 52.6% (won by 5.6%)
1986: 52.6% (won by 5.3%)
1992: 51.9% (won by 7%)
1998: 52.7% (won by 8.9%)
2004: 56.1% (won by 13.3%)
So in 8 elections over 34 years, Bond finished above 53% three times (and two of those times were in the 1970s). With multiple elections that were reasonably close to the current result (47-43).
I don’t know if it says more for this state or for Kit Bond that he either faces tough opponents or has reasonably close elections.
Part of Bond’s fate depends on how good a job Obama does, and how good his opponent is. With term limits sweeping out quite a few Dems in places where there’s no other place for advancement.. we might see one of those termed-out Dems running if Robin doesn’t run.
Are there any other Democratic candidates names being floated other than Carnahan? I like Carnahan, but I was just curious if anyone else was considering.
for as much pork as he can the next two years. That’s how he’ll try to hold his own in the urban suburbs.
To me those polls are encouraging but they still aren’t a real comparison – they are comparing people in two different offices with different levels of expectations. Robin is our best hope for beating Bond. But I don’t think it will be easy.
Maybe he’ll retire …
Bond will be facing some difficult votes. The most important one is health care. He votes vote it and he loses the wingnuts. He votes against it and he increases opposition to his re-election.
What will he say about the Iraq pullout?
Will he attempt to deny cloture to Obama Supreme Court nominees?
Will he vote to extend the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy?
He is beatable.
…United States senator from Missouri who’s not doing very well in the poll approval department. And that person is not Kit Bond.