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Monthly Archives: November 2008

Much ado – an announcement in the Warrensburg paper – the sequel

20 Thursday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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civil rights, commitment announcement, Daily Star Journal, GLBT issues, Warrensburg

I wonder if we’re seeing the next step in a civil rights movement.

This weekend:

Proposition 8 rally in Kansas City

Join the Impact in Saint Louis

Proposition 8 rally in Kansas City – more photos

A year ago:

Much ado – an announcement in the Warrensburg newspaper, part 11

Yesterday:

One of the individuals who was the subject of all those letter to the editor wrote a letter which was published in the Warrensburg Daily Star-Journal (in print and online) on November 19th:

…I am just writing you all to say if you thought you all could scare us off it did not work. We still live in Warrensburg, Mo., area so if you have a problem with gay people in your town get over it because there are a lot more gay people living in Warrensburg than have the guts to come out and let everyone know…

I don’t think as many people are going to be silent anymore.

You're Kidding, Right?

20 Thursday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 30 Comments

Tags

Jake Wagman, Kit Bond, missouri, Political Fix, St. Louis Post Dispatch

The P-D’s Jake Wagman thinks it surprising that Kit Bond would go for the auto bailout. Wagman notes that Bond’s website states that “government doesn’t create jobs, businesses do.”

Well, that may be true that Bond makes that claim on his website, but Bond does love him some pork. Look at Bond’s earmarks for FY2008 Appropriations. He certainly doesn’t mind spending government money to stimulate job growth; it’s partly why he has such a high approval rating when Republicans overall are in such disfavor. And he voted for the $700 billion financial bailout – why would he have qualms about loaning a great deal less to auto companies when thousands of jobs are on the line in Missouri?

Burnt Ends

20 Thursday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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1) If given a nice suitcase of money and a pollster, I’ll make the documentary “How McCain got defeated”. I’ll even rant against Nate Silver, if need be.

2) Wondering why Kinder ran ahead of his ticket in some urban areas? Heck, seems like people leaped off of the Hulshof boat in order to salvage Kinder’s bid. Those people are under some delusion that Jay Nixon wouldn’t beat Peter Kinder by 15 points (at the minimum).

3) Lt. Governor Woody Paige Kinder is also dueling with Kit Bond over the next chair of the Missouri GOP. Kinder is backing Jo Ann Emerson aide Lloyd Smith. Bond is backing the Wicked Witch of the East. I guess since Hanaway is going to lose her US Attorney’s job, she needs to find some other political position to occupy.

3b) Matt Blunt as the RNC chairman? Bwahahahahahahaha haaaaahahaaaahahahaaahahahaha. Ok. That’s enough.

4) Meanwhile in the Republican civil war, Mike Huckabee doesn’t care for Mitt Romney much. Huckabee is at least nice enough to not say much about Palin (so far), as they appealed to similar constituencies, and Huckabee was an obviously better and more experienced pick than Palin for the Vice Presidency. Huckabee and Palin will find a way to toss McCain under the bus soon.

5) Blunt’s beef with Post-Dispatch nixes visit to Hindu Temple. No word on if the Post-Dispatch will market a “Blunt repellant” to help people keep Matt Blunt away from them.

6) Mike Sanders gaining influence… well, in comparison to Mayor Saruman. Which is kind of like saying “more buoyant than the Titanic” after an iceberg strike. But in the scheme of things, Sanders will have an elective job in 2011, and Funkhouser won’t.

7) How does Spirit One have tax-exempt status anyways? Seriously.

Deb Lavender is thinking about running again

20 Thursday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Deb Lavender, missouri

After his unsuccessful run against Todd Akin in the Second Congressional, Bill Haas announced at the last meeting of West County Dems that he and some other concerned citizens had met and talked about the need for campaigning for 2010 races to start next spring.

It couldn’t hurt.

Deb Lavender wasn’t part of that conversation, but I got an e-mail from her this week saying that she is looking into having another go at Rick Stream in HD 94 in Kirkwood.

Deb got almost 46 percent of the vote there on November 4th, so taking another run at him seems reasonable. It’s true that with one short exception, that seat has been in Republican hands for fifty years, but the exception was that Jane Bogetto captured that seat in a 2005 special election–only to lose it in 2006, as the victim of (if you can believe such a thing) Republican smears.

So it’s possible to do it. Jim Trout came achingly close to winning Gibbons’ senate seat, which covers Kirkwood and Webster. Next door in Webster Groves, Jeanne Kirkton got 51.4 percent of the vote.

It’s true that Kirkton had some advantages Deb didn’t. For one, Jeanne had run for the state senate against Gibbons in ’04 and had that name recognition going for her. Also contributing to her name recognition was that Jeanne’s been on the Webster City Council. Bogetto had a similar advantage from having served on the Kirkwood School Board. The final advantage Jeanne had, which Deb didn’t this year and won’t have if she runs in two years, is that the Webster rep was termed out. Deb will have to face an incumbent.

On the plus side for Deb is that she ran an impressive race for someone who has never tried it before. She can look back at the past year and a half of effort, take pride in it, maybe wince at a few mistakes and learn from them.

I say it’s worth another try–and kudos to Deb for picking herself back up so quickly. If she decides to do it–are you listening, Bill?–she can start next spring.

photo of Deb with state party chairman John Temporiti, courtesy of Deb’s website

Penrose on Politics: it ain't Shinola

20 Thursday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

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Brett Penrose

Brett Penrose on our current economic triumphs.

Senator Claire McCaskill (D) voted to keep Joe Lieberman as chair of Homeland Security

19 Wednesday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 26 Comments

Tags

chairmanship, Claire McCaskill, Homeland Security, Joe Lieberman, missouri, Senate

I called Senator Claire McCaskill’s office in Washington today to ask if she had voted to retain Joe Lieberman as chair of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. I was able to leave a message with Maria Speiser, Senator McCaskill’s press secretary. After a short round of telephone tag I was able to speak with Ms. Speiser.

I asked her how Senator McCaskill voted. Ms. Speiser replied that she had voted for Senator Lieberman. She added that her reason for doing so was to follow the lead of President-elect Obama – moving past the election and working together because there are a lot of challenges.

I asked – given Senator Lieberman’s previous lack of oversight hearings – if Senator McCaskill thought he would change his ways and if she was confident that he had done a good job as chair. Ms. Speiser replied that Senator McCaskill always encouraged oversight. Claire McCaskill is a member of the Homeland Security committee.

Finally, I asked how Senator McCaskill would explain retaining Senator Lieberman as chair to those in the grassroots who worked to elect Obama, all while Senator Lieberman did the opposite. Ms. Speiser replied that Senator McCaskill had worked hard [to elect Obama], too. Senator McCaskill’s view was that the election was over and we needed to move forward. Ms. Speiser added that President-elect Obama had also encouraged this view among senators.

3632

19 Wednesday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 6 Comments

Turn out the lights Don

John McCain, Sarah Palin REP 1,445,781 49.4%  

Barack Obama, Joe Biden DEM 1,442,145 49.3%  

Bob Barr, Wayne A. Root LIB 11,385 .4%  

Chuck Baldwin, Darrell Castle CST 8,200 .3%  

Ralph Nader, Matt Gonzalez IND 17,811 .6%  

Cynthia McKinney, Rosa Clemente WI 469 .0%  

Total Votes  2,925,791

Obama picked up 1 vote in Montgomery County, 439 votes in STL City and 1038 votes in STL County. McCain picked up 2 votes in Montgomery County, 68 votes in STL City and 689 in STL County.

As noted last night, the JCEB official results gave Obama a gain of 4 votes (35 Obama, 31 McCain). But these votes are not noted on the MO-SOS page yet.

So adding those results gives us a total of..

McCain 1,445,812

Obama 1,442,180

Nader 17,813

Barr 11,386

Baldwin 8,201

So this is the closest Missouri Presidential election in vote margin and percentage margin since 1908. So we have that going for us. I guess.

Obama on climate change

19 Wednesday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Obama

President-elect Barack Obama addressed Governors’ Global Climate Summit via video.

It’s kind of nice to look forward to government policy based on, you know, actually science:

“…The science is beyond dispute, the facts are clear…”

Ah, the true value of not falling asleep during class while acquiring a solid liberal arts education…

How the Jackson County Suburbs split, 2008 edition

19 Wednesday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Utilizing the tools at our disposal (such as results and a list matching precincts to towns), let’s contrast and compare 2008 to 2004 in Eastern Jackson County.

2008 results-

Blue Springs: McCain 54, Obama 45 (14393-11914 McCain with 26659 votes cast)

Blue Summit: Obama 67, McCain 30 (97-43, 144 votes total)

Buckner: McCain 56, Obama 42 (666-504, 1193 votes total)

Grain Valley: McCain 58, Obama 41 (2999-2093, 5150 votes total)

Grandview: Obama 69, McCain 30 (7121-3084, 10338 votes total)

Greenwood: McCain 56, Obama 43 (1378-1040, 2439 votes total)

Independence: Obama 51, McCain 47 (25658-23666, 50195 votes cast)

Lake Lotawana: McCain 61, Obama 38 (1250-779, 2042 votes cast)

Lake Tapawingo: McCain 54, Obama 44 (280-228, 514 votes cast)

Lee’s Summit: McCain 55, Obama 44 (24660-19692, 44750 votes cast)

Levasy: McCain 31 votes, Obama 24 votes, Nader 1 vote

Lone Jack: McCain 61, Obama 37 (281-171, 461 votes cast)

Oak Grove: McCain 54, Obama 44 (1511-1246, 2803 votes cast)

Raytown: Obama 58, McCain 41 (8123-5702, 14035 votes cast)

River Bend: Obama 7, McCain 3 [Precincts 14 & 16 in Blue Sub 1]

Sibley: Obama 94 votes, McCain 82 votes, 178 votes cast

Sugar Creek: Obama 57, McCain 40 (829-583, 1443 votes cast)

Unity Village: Obama 31 votes, McCain 17 votes, Barr 1 vote.

Unincorporated, Fort Osage: McCain 54, Obama 44 (2153-1752, 3955 votes)

Unincorporated, Prairie: McCain 68, Obama 31 (589-267, 871 votes)

Unincorporated, Sni-A-Bar: McCain 62, Obama 36 (964-564, 1546 votes)

Unincorporated, Van Buren: McCain 63, Obama 36 (1500-841, 2366 votes)

Absentee votes: Obama 52, McCain 47 (7647-7028, 14845 votes)

If you’re like most people, you have no idea where the “unincorporated township” areas are. A brief summary

Unincorporated Fort Osage is mostly east of the Little Blue and kind of NW in the county (I added some parts of unincorporated Blue Township since it’s in the Fort Osage School District). Unincorporated Prairie is mainly the area south of Blue Springs, east of Lee’s Summit and west of Lake Lotawana. Unincorporated Sni-a-Bar is partly east of the Little Blue and going to the Jackson/Lafayette County line. Unincorporated Van Buren is anything in SE Jackson County outside of Lake Lotawana and Lone Jack.

Anyways.. how about a comparison for the big places?

Blue Springs went for Bush by 19.7% in 2004, and for McCain by 9.3%

Grandview went for Kerry by 25.3% in 2004, and Obama by 39%

Independence went for Kerry by 0.6% in 2004, Obama by 4% in 2008

Lee’s Summit went for Bush by 23% in 2004, and for McCain by 11% in 2008

Raytown went for Kerry by 7% in 2004, and for Obama by 17% in 2008

The only towns to trend to McCain were Buckner, Green Valley (which cast 2815 votes in 2004 and 5150 votes in 2008), and Lake Lotawana. The unincorporated Sni-a-Bar areas also trended McCain.

Using more of our resources, let’s give out nods and acknowledgements.

Best Obama Precinct by township (with over 20 votes cast)

Blue: Blue Sub 1, Precinct 18 (Inter City Fire Station). Obama won 97-43 there. Runnerup was Blue Sub 8, Precinct 6 (Coventry Estates Baptist Church) with a 343-162 Obama win.

Brookings: Precinct 25 (Spring Valley Elementary). Obama won 517-173 there. Runnerup was Precinct 12/13 (First United Methodist Church-Raytown) with 609-272 Obama.

Fort Osage: Precinct 1/3 (Anchor Point Baptist Church) which went 33-28 Obama. Runnerup was Precinct 4, which is Sibley, Missouri.

Prairie: Precinct 53 (Hazel Grove Elementary) which is also Unity Village. Runnerup: Precinct 2 (St Paul’s Episcopal Church) which went 346-302 Obama.

Sni-a-Bar: Precinct 14A/31B/75A/76/76A (Timothy Lutheran Church) which went 305-222 Obama. Runnerup was Precinct 23 (Parkview Community of Christ) which went 490-360 Obama.

Van Buren: Precinct 6/6A/7/11A (Lake Lotawana City Hall) which went 137-130 for McCain. No runner-up for this township.

Washington: Precinct 1/2 (Grandview Community of Christ) which went 1012-165 Obama. This Precinct was also Obama’s best in Eastern Jackson County. His second best precinct in EJC was Precinct 3/4/6 (Coronation of Our Lady Church) which went 1236-307 for Obama.

And for contrast, McCain’s best precincts

Blue: Blue Sub 1, Precinct 8 (The Independence Branch of Jesus Christ Restored Church) went 27-12 for McCain

Brooking: Precinct 19 (Southwood United Church of Christ) went 312-307 McCain.

Fort Osage: Precinct 11/12/26/28 (Buckner United Methodist Church) went 314-136 for McCain.

Prairie: Precinct 58C/63/63A/63B/65/77/77A/77B (Woodland Elementary) went 496-229 for McCain. I listed this as a Lake Lotawana precinct, although as you can see, there are 8 precincts in this location (6 of which add up to 24 voters), and the two largest are not listed as Lake Lotawana. Apologies to any Lake Lotawanans who were pretty sure their town wasn’t quite that conservative.

Sni-a-Bar: Precincts 02/03A/03B/04 (Sunny Vale Middle School) which went 458-193 for McCain. Three small precincts went uniamously for McCain, totaling 10 votes combined.

Van Buren: 01/01A/01B/01C/26 (Mason Elementary) which went 56-17 for McCain.

Washington: Precinct 10 (Southview Christian Church) which went 294-263 for McCain.

Results by township-

Blue: Obama 52, McCain 46 (26959-23926, 51817 votes)

Brookings: Obama 58, McCain 41 (8123-5702, 14035 votes)

Fort Osage: McCain 60, Obama 38 (1965-1240, 3261 votes)

Prairie: McCain 56, Obama 44 (27557-21589, 49594 votes)

Sni-a-Bar: McCain 55, Obama 43 (20980-16464, 37937 votes)

Van Buren: McCain 61, Obama 37 (2591-1579, 4215 votes)

Washington: Obama 69, McCain 30 (7121-3084, 10338 votes)

Conclusions time

#1: Some parts of suburbia shifted rather generously to Obama. Such as Blue Springs and Lee’s Summit. These places are still pretty rigidly conservative, but losing by 10 instead of 20 helps the overall showing.

#2: Independence South of 23rd was friendly to McCain. But no Independence precinct north of 23rd and west of 291 went for McCain. In fact, every subgroup of Blue Township (which is Independence west of Little Blue) except Blue Sub-8went for Obama. Blue Sub-3 and 6 went for Bush and Obama. As for the areas that were strong for us, there wasn’t a whole lot of movement and I don’t know how much work was put into those areas by the campaign (as opposed to canvassing south of 23rd).

#3: Way to go, Sibley!

#4: If the results by precinct for Clay County are released, we’ll see which parts of that county came through for us.

#5: Yes, a lot of these precincts are in churches. Seeing as they’re not doing much on Tuesdays and they’re supposed to be nonpartisan, it’s not that bad of an arrangement. My favorite precinct that I’ve heard about is in a BBQ restaurant in Belton. I don’t know how that is arranged through, so it may be less delicious than you’d think.

#6: Without having talked to people who worked on the campaign in Eastern Jackson County or people who experienced it, I can’t tell you how they fell short and only managed to turn an area that went for Bush by 8.8% into one that went for McCain by 1.13%. The easy route is to blame some of it on Grain Valley while hoping nobody from there is within distance to hear your comments.

That’s all for now.

A blogger conference call with Howard Dean, part 2

19 Wednesday Nov 2008

Posted by Michael Bersin in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

bloggers, DNC, Howard Dean

Part 1: A blogger conference call with Howard Dean: “…the next state on my list is Texas.”

Part 2:

…Question: Hi Governor Dean. I was just wondering, you know, as you’re preparing to move on from the DNC if you, you know, have any preferences as to who you’d like to be as the next chairman, and, and the advice for that person, and, and also what you see as the future of the fifty state strategy under your successor and your own personal plans for [crosstalk]…

Howard Dean: Well, you know, I, I’ve done a transition memo for the Obama folks, so I know I’m not going to publicly say what’s in the transition memo, but I think I can broadly outline. First of all, the Obama campaign used a fifty state strategy in order to win this election. He, he had an office in places like Utah, which everybody knew we weren’t gonna win. So it’s extraordinary what he has done, not just for the country, but the Democratic Party. And I have no doubt that that will continue with the new chair. I don’t have an advice for a specific person for the new chair. I do believe that the party gets run differently when you have an incumbent Democratic president. I think he ought to have a person who’s very loyal to him as the executive director, because that’s where the decisions are really going to be made. And he will run the party, through his people, for the next four years, and hopefully the next eight years. And I think I guess that’s about all I can say, but I have every confidence that the fifty state strategy will continue and the map will be expanded even further in 2010 and 2012…

…Question: Hey Howard.

Howard Dean: Hi.

Question: Hey, I, I blog out of New Orleans and we have a kind of special difficult circumstances here. And we’re in a deep red state. I’m curious as to how the fifty state, state strategy over the next couple years may make inroads in red states where Democratic Party infrastructures have been a hindrance.

Howard Dean: Well, in, the, the, in New Orleans, in Louisiana we don’t think the Democratic, there are some states where the Democratic party structure is a hindrance, but Louisiana is not one of them. The problem with Louisiana is because of Katrina. We basically had to support their party in ways that we didn’t have to do for anybody else. And, that, their, their difficulty, again, with Democratic poli..Party politics in Louisiana is it’s very hard to get the capacity to run the party without having, having a governor, and without having the ability that you have when you’re, in, in sort of a stable situation. I don’t think politically Louisiana has been a particularly stable situation since Katrina. What with the huge population changes and, and the change in the political climate because of the reaction to Katrina. That doesn’t mean we’re gonna give up on Louisiana. We’re not. I actually took a bus tour through Louisiana before we even decided which states were gonna be in the mix and I…Louisiana and Mississippi were two states that we thought might be in the mix. So, we’ll, that is, but you’re right, Louisiana is a special circumstance which is gonna require some special attention and we’ve done some of that but clearly there’s gonna have to be more of that from the next DNC chair…

…Question: Governor Dean, here in New Mexico we had a big swing this year and in votes, in votes, especially among Hispanics. I was wondering what kind of outreach you guys did specifically for Hispanics [crosstalk]…

Howard Dean: We had the largest Hispanic outreach in the history of the Democratic Party. I think we spent twenty million to start with, and more than that, reaching out to Hispanics all over the country. And a lot of it was the thing that you expect, Spanish language TV and newspaper and radio. Interviews. But we had an enormous number of Latino organizers on the ground in these key states making contact with, with prospective voters. Florida was the other place where we just spent enormous amount of money, time, and effort in the Hispanic population. Organizing in the community, in ways that I think have never been done before. We started, actually, before we knew who the nominee was gonna be. A couple of years ago I reached out to Hispanic evangelical ministers, Protestant ministers, who had been meeting with Bush, partly because of the faith based outreach. But immigration allowed us the opening to begin to talk with them and some of them have become our friends and they worked very hard for the Democratic ticket within the bounds of their tax exempt requirements. And that was a huge help to us. And so we did get big assist from the Republican immigration language. It wasn’t so much the policy but the language that they used to discuss American citizens who were Hispanic, let alone immigrants…

…Question: Hi, Governor Dean, happy birthday by the way.

Howard Dean: Thank you.

Question: How frustrating is it for you as DNC chair, with West Virginia, where every office from the governor on down is pretty much controlled by the Democrats, but we’ve lost the last three presidential elections. And what can be done about that?

Howard Dean: Well, actually, it’s much better to be in a position of West Virginia than it is, say, in Alabama where you have a Republican governor. We’ve got a great Democratic governor and Democratic office holders and now we’ve just got to figure out how to translate that into winning the presidency. We came back. We were way behind, we came back, hey Joe Biden made a last minute visit to West Virginia. So West Virginia is one of those states like Texas we just got, we can, we can keep working at it and we can win it again. And when we do, the whole political dynamic will have changed. This is it again, a generational shift that’s going on in West Virginia and, and other parts of Appalachia. And I think we just gotta work our way through it and keep working hard. But I don’t, I don’t, it’s not, West Virginia is not the least bit frustrating to me. I, I was very pleased by what happened in West Virginia. We didn’t win, but we really closed the gap in the last couple of weeks. And that means that the momentum will be with us in the next election…

…I just want to say thank you all. Look forward to, hopefully, seeing you all in person one of these, maybe at the convention, the Netroots convention next year…

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