When the election was all set and done, John McCain won 57/41 in Greene County, Missouri. But George W. Bush won 62/37 in the same county.
If you were to look at the map on 15-24 from the census…
You’d find three red spotted areas, which are overwhelmingly college kids. Two blocks are the MSU campus, and the other is the Evangel campus. Other high 15-24 areas are close to the MSU campus, with two exceptions in Orange, which are around Drury (417) and Baptist Bible College (638). So how did these areas vote on November 4th?
[Checking the number of people in Dorms, the Evangel block has 1047, the two MSU blocks have 2043 and 1031. Baptist Bible has 575 in their block. Drury is split with 235 in the Orange block and 394 in the block north of that. Three Census blocks between the Drury radius and the MSU base also have Dorm residents]
Evangel’s campus appears to be split between 22A and 30B. Drury’s campus is mainly in 20A with some housing in 22C. Baptist Bible College is also split with parts of campus in 20B and 22C. Essentially everybody got divided somehow.
So, here’s the locations of precincts that will be mentioned here. 3-B voted at Catholic Campus Ministries. 4-AB voted at Asbury United Methodist. 9-B voted at South Street Christian Church. 20-AB voted at Courthouse Rotunda. 22-AB voted at Pathways United Methodist. 22-C voted at Central Christian Church. 30-AB voted at Cooper Tennis Complex.
A disclaimer before we get to the results: The number of college students voting from their campus location is not exactly high due to those who (a) aren’t registered or (b) are registered in their home town. As well, due to the composition of some precincts, non-students will outvote the students. The last point is the best argument for claiming that one of the four colleges mentioned here is not a secret liberal hotbed.
The results from 3-B showed a turnout of 52% (1299 votes) and these percentages for Democrats.
62.2% Obama, 62.1% Nixon, 52.1% Page, 63.4% Carnahan, 55.95% Zweifel, 58% Koster, and 45% for Richard Monroe.
3 voters didn’t cast a valid vote for President, 75 didn’t cast a valid vote for Governor, 153 didn’t cast a valid vote for Lt. Governor. Between the drastic drop-off rate and Obama’s huge percentage compared to Nixon and Carnahan, this is pretty much campus country, results-wise.
4-AB results (1321 votes cast, 55.6% turnout): 64.5% Obama, 69.6% Nixon, 55.2% Page, 69% Carnahan, 61.4% Zweifel, 61.1% Koster, 49.7% Monroe. 1 voter didn’t cast a valid Presidential vote, 44 didn’t cast a valid Gubernatorial vote, 105 didn’t cast a valid Lt. Gubernatorial vote. Any precinct where Richard Monroe beats Roy Blunt is a diehard precinct.
9-B results (1437 votes, 50.9% turnout): 64.5% Obama, 66.15% Nixon, 54.6% Page, 66.6% Carnahan, 57.7% Zweifel, 58.8% Koster, 46.6% Monroe. 5 ballots without a Presidential vote, 69 without a Gubernatorial vote, 134 without a Lt. Gubernatorial vote.
So, let’s venture north.
20-AB results (1082 votes, 44.8% turnout): 52.6% Obama, 58% Nixon, 43.6% Page, 57.8% Carnahan, 49.2% Zweifel, 51.6% Koster, 40% Monroe.
22-AB results (1379 votes, 53.6% turnout): 53.8% Obama, 65.6% Nixon, 48.7% Page, 67% Carnahan, 55% Zweifel, 56.4% Koster, 45.6% Monroe.
22-C results (918 votes, 47.3% turnout): 60.6% Obama, 67.9% Nixon, 54.2% Page, 66.1% Carnahan, 59% Zweifel, 61.9% Koster, 51.35% Monroe.
30-AB results (1687 votes, 49% turnout): 39.4% Obama, 51.9% Nixon, 35% Page, 50.50% Carnahan, 42% Zweifel, 42% Koster, 32.1% Monroe.
As for comparing this to 2004 (an inexact science due to the possibility of precinct line changes), Kerry got around 55% in 3B, 4, and 9B. 20A and 20B were separate in 2004, but if you combine them, you find that Bush won 59/40 in 20AB. Bush won 52/47 in 22AB. Bush won 55/44 in 22C. 30A and 30B were separate in 2004, with 30B going 75/24 Bush. Combining 30A and 30B tells us that Bush won 68/32 there, compared to 59/39 McCain in 2008.
And here’s a map of the precincts we covered with their results if you’re totally lost
a) This has pretty much always been the best area for Democrats in Springfield, right?
b) I’m pretty sure that the Baptist Bible College is getting heavily outvoted in 20 and 22C.
c) Evangel is probably outvoted too, but the majority of voters in 30 are with them, so it fits into what we’d expect.
d) Student precincts have low turnout, and presumably a sizable number of kids registered in places they haven’t lived in for years.
e) Feel free to do the math on the results to figure out if Obama won Springfield. It’s possible.
And for fun, famous alums of these schools include Bob Barker (Drury), Congressman Roy Blunt (MSU), Jerry Falwell (Baptist Bible), Royals owner David Glass (MSU), Cheaters host Joey Greco (Evangel), Fmr. Gov. Bob Holden (MSU), Former AL batting champ Bill Mueller (MSU), and Congressman Todd Tiahrt (Evangel).
Honorable mention to these Greene County precincts for giving Obama over 60%: 2A, 3A, and 9A (66.7%!)… ok, maybe I should have featured 9A, any precinct where Richard Monroe almost defeats Roy Blunt by 20%..
So, any thoughts, comments, or urgent corrections?