Originally Posted at Comments St. Louis by Travis Reems

The primary for the Mayor's race is more than 6 months away, and without the 2008 elections having yet been decided, talk has begun about the potential mayoral candidates. Mayor Francis Slay has announced that he will be seeking a third-term, a feat not enjoyed by many St. Louis mayors. In fact, only 5 of the city's 45 mayors have enjoyed 3 or more terms, and only 2 since the Civil War.

There is a sizable list of possible candidates for the March 3, 2009, Democratic primary, and a few names are rumored to be seriously looking at running. Among those rumored to be looking at running are Circuit Court Clerk Mariano Favazza, state Representative Thomas Villa, and former President of the Board James Shrewsbury.

The Favazza name might sound familiar, even to those unfamiliar with the Circuit Clerk. Favazza recently ran his son for state Representative in the 65th district against incumbent state Representative Michele Kratky, and his brother for Committeeman of the 16th ward against incumbent Tom Hayes. Both of those campaigns were unsuccessful and were rumored to be tests of the Favazza name for a possible mayoral run. If Favazza were to run, he would likely draw heavily on his 10th ward (the Hill) ties and his 16th ward (St. Louis Hills) supporters.

The Villa name is almost a historic-landmark in St. Louis. State Representative Thomas Villa has spent 16-years (not contiguously) in Jefferson City as a state Representative, and is no stranger to running for mayor, as he attempted the run before in 1993, while he was President of the Board of Aldermen. His father, the late former Alderman Albert “Red” Villa, has been enshrined in a bronze bust in the Villa southside base of the 11th ward's Carondelete neighborhood, which Thomas Villa's nephew, Matt Villa, currently represents as Alderman. Thomas Villa has taken on an elder-statesman aire of late with his support of his recently elected successor, state Representative-elect Jacob Hummel. Further, Villa has engendered good-will with the northside by not running in the recent 5th district state Senate race, where many predicted he would win handily should he have run, which ensured that an African-American candidate would retain that seat. Villa, if he were to run for mayor, would likely draw on his strong 11th ward base, and significant northside reciprocal support.

Former President of the Board of Aldermen, James Shrewsbury, who has recently been seen at various political functions seems to be getting back in the swing of local politics, which means he might keep true to his words after his loss of the Presidency to Lewis Reed, that he will be back. Shrewsbury certainly has the name recognition and the ability to fundraise needed in order to mount a mayoral run. Those close to Shrewsbury haven't been willing to state how seriously he is looking at running. Shrewsbury would also draw heavily on his home ward of the 16th, where he served as a popular Alderman, and where he has kept-up his name recognition by making very public endorsements of candidates running in that ward.

All three of these possible candidates would draw on the southside base of Mayor Slay, and would likely garner support from the northside, which is rumored to be willing to vote for “anybody but Slay.”

Although KMOX reported earlier this week that License Collector Michael McMillan has a start at the funds–over $300,000 currently on-hand–necessary to launch a successful bid for the Mayor's office, rumors have him sitting this one out. This leaves state Representative T.D. El-Amin as the only northside possible candidate rumored to be seriously looking at running. El-Amin, a junior state Representative, does not appear to have the northside base necessary to unify behind his candidacy. Add to that the fact that he was unable to pass any legislation during the past term, and there is serious doubt whether he could really run.

We will know soon enough who has the fortitude to run, when filing opens on November 24, 2008.