( – promoted by Clark)
In the year 2008, the following seats will be open, either in a special election or in the 2008 general election
Special elections: HD16, HD18, HD65, HD158
Open seats: HD03, HD07, HD20, HD22, HD43, HD44, HD61, HD63, HD67, HD71, HD73, HD81, HD82, HD85, HD86, HD88, HD91, HD92, HD95, HD108, HD120, HD121, HD127, HD136, HD144, HD149, HD156
Feel free to add more districts to the list.
Here’s a summary of the open seats
HD03 should be a challenging seat to hold. Most of the counties gave Talent returns in the low to medium 50s (and gave McCaskill percentages around 10% to 15% behind Talent). For some reason, the district also divides Worth County.
HD07 is based in three counties, including Carrolton and Chillicothe. McCaskill fared well in Caldwell County, but lost by 10 in Livingston and Carroll counties. Quinn has won reelection easily in the last few years. Perhaps this can be a competitive seat, at least once.
Candidates so far: Mike Lair (R-Chillicothe) and Harry Wyse (D-Chillicothe)
HD20 is based in pretty much all of Callaway County south of I-70, including Fulton. This district was held by Democrats in the pre-term limits ‘era’ until 2000. Danie Moore hasn’t had a serious challenge but Callaway seems reasonably winnable given the right tide.
Candidates so far: Jeanie Riddle (R-Fulton) and Don Salcedo (D-Fulton)
HD23 should be a hold for our side. Knock on wood. Russ Unger is a Democratic candidate for this seat.
HD43 and HD44 are both in KC and will be retained pretty easily.
HD61, HD63, HD67, and HD108 are all in St. Louis City. They’re presumably safe, barring complete disaster. Candidates with committees include Michael Colona (HD67), Joan Landmann (HD67), Robert Stelzer (HD67), Jacob Hummel (HD108), Tony Rezek (HD108)
HD71, HD73 and HD81 are Democratic seats in St. Louis County. HD82 could be competitive, depending on if the Republicans try hard to pick up Page’s seat (even with Nixon and Page running statewide)
Candidates include Donald Calloway Jr (HD71), Vernon Harlan (HD71), Roger Wilson [no, not that one] (HD71), Steve Brown (HD73), Gina Mitten (HD73), and Stacey Newman (HD73). [All Democrats]
HD85 will be opened by Lembke running for the Senate, and it should be competitive. HD86 is a Republican seat in Chesterfield. HD88 is in Ballwin. HD91 is in Webster Groves. HD92 is east of HD88. HD95 is close to Kirkwood. Fares had a close call in 2006. So that’s a positive sign. STL residents should know a lot more about these seats than me.
Candidates include Vicki Englund (D-HD85), Robin Harris (R-HD86), Andrew Koenig (R-HD88), Shamed Dogan (R-HD88), Chris Howard (R-HD88), Jeanne Kirkton (D-HD91), Randy Jotte (R-HD91), Susan Allen (R-HD92), Bob Tullock (R-HD92), Lee Presser (R-HD92), and Mike Leara (R-HD95).
HD120 is going to be an interesting seat, because it includes a portion of SD31 in Bates, Cass, and Southern Johnson County. That area might be more sympathetic to Democrats than usual if the campaign in SD31 goes well for us. Those parts of the district include Archie, Leeton, and Drexel. Henry County went for McCaskill and that’s a good sign for the overall hopes. Kristi Kenney is the only candidate with a committee.
HD121 is more than just Warrensburg. There’s also unincorporated parts of Johnson County, and Knob Noster. This district will be covered a lot more in the future. Don’t worry about it. Candidates i’ve heard about include Jeff Alvarado, Anthony “Art” Arton, and Jim Jackson for the Democrats.
HD127 includes Jasper County west of US71, but not including Joplin. That should tell you what is necessary about who will win here. Tom Flanigan (R) has a committee though
HD136 is in Greene County, but Marsh won by only 12%, so this might be competitive somehow. But, maybe that’s not in the cards. Eric Burlison (R) has a committee.
HD144 is in Wright and Douglas County. That should tell you what is necessary about who will win here.
HD149 is in the friendlier area of Rolla and Northeast Phelps county. So it could be close, if the wind blows the right way. But it won’t be a complete blowout. Wayne Bledsoe (D) and Dave Keller (R) have committees so far.
HD156 is probably going to have the same kind of result as HD149. Jetton won by 13 in 2006 and the district probably has some sympathetic areas. Michael Winder (D) is running again here.
As for the special elections
Republicans probably hold the 158th (unless their candidate totally blows it) and Democrats hold the 65th.
The real fun will be in the St. Charles County based 16th and 18th districts*. But having the HD16 special election (and possibly the HD18* special election) on the Presidential primary date should help the Republicans out. But then again, St. Charles is becoming bluer, so who knows what is possible.
[* – Of course, Blunt hasn’t decided on if he wants to let the 18th district go without representation for a year out of fear that it’ll be won by a Democrat. Seriously]
The special election matchups are..
HD16: Mark Parkinson (R) v. Tom Fann (D)
HD18: Matthew Seeds or Anne Zerr (R) v. Mindy Primm or Tim Swope (D)
HD65: Michelle Kratky (D) v. Somebody (R)
HD158: Mary Kasten (R) v. Mike Keefe (D) v. George Webster (LP)
HD158 might be open in November if Kasten wins and then declines to run for re-election. But it seems unlikely that she would run for an office, only to retire from it a month into her term.
But then again, if Charles Dake can win in Lawrence County, then everything is possible.
Two more notes
Republicans who won by less than 3% in 2006
Jim Guest (R-King City), Sally Faith (R-St. Charles), Vicki Schneider (R-O’Fallon), Ed Robb (R-Columbia), Jerry Nolte (R-Gladstone), Jeff Grisamore (R-Lee’s Summit), and Rick Stream (R-Kirkwood) [keeping in mind that Grisamore won an open seat and Stream defeated an incumbent]
And currently the state house has 89 Republicans and 70 Democrats. Back in November, it was 92-71. So it’ll take around 11 pickups to get the majority.
And yes, expect more open seats. Just because.
So, who else isn’t going to run in 2008? And who is going to run for these open seats?
And yes, all those opean seats in St. Louis is a very rich opportunity for gains.