The 111th isn’t going to be a reprise of the 110th.
As soon as the next session is seated in January, the midterms get underway, and the Class III senators are going to be wary about playing the obstructionist game – especially if Mitch McConnell loses in Kentucky.
Click that link and take a look at the breakdown – Democrats will be defending fifteen safe seats. Republicans will be trying to hold on to nineteen seats, a couple of them might retire and a few others are vulnerable. I see three possible Democratic pickups in 2010 as of today – If Governor Kathleen Sebelius chooses to challenge Sam Brownback, she wins. If the 2010 election was today, Governor Janet Napolitano would trounce John McCain by seven points. And if we can’t send that perv David Vitter packing, Howard Dean needs to personally visit each and every one of us and deliver a swift kick to the ass. If the Kitster retires, or even if he doesn’t, I can see Robin Carnahan being sworn in as a U.S. Senator in January 2011. In fact, I relish the notion.
My point is, we don’t have to have a supermajority this time. We have the psychological advantage of the ass-kicking we are about to deliver, and the ones of them with a sense of self-preservation will be aware that the drubbing they are about to get tomorrow was exacerbated by their proclivity for obstructionism. Some of those nineteen Class III senators are going to play ball on items that have popular constituent support – especially if they represent states Obama takes tomorrow.
And if the lead obstructionist Mitch McConnell gets kicked to the curb tomorrow, and it is still possible that he just might, then that will really take the wind out of the obstructionist sails.
And even if McConnell survives, he is not likely to have the same success throwing spanners in the works as he has had this Congress. When you have an even count of 49 seats per party and the other guys only have a majority because a couple of Independents caucus with them it presents a whole different dynamic than when you “enjoy” a 57-41-2 disadvantage and you represent a beaten, defeated, denounced and repudiated party.
And remember, the midterms get underway Wednesday morning at 7:00 a.m. – but if you take a few days and don’t show up until Monday, I will understand – In fact, I myself might not drag myself back to the office until after the coffee is made Monday morning…