‘Money is to campaigns as gas is to driving a car’ (if someone hasn’t claimed credit for that quote, I should)

The shortlist of rules as to how a race is listed

a) No seats uncontested by either major party (that eliminates 51 Dem seats and 27 Rep seats right off the bat)

b) Only competitive/intriguing Dem-held seats

c) No listing for Dem challengers who are taking exemptions or limited activity. Sorry, if you’re doing a CDLA in October, you’re going to lose.

d) Everything else is fair game.

Our chart includes 64 of 163 seats. Amongst these seats, 57 are Republican-held and 7 are Democratic-held.

Here’s the chart itself. More is under the fold, including maps!

Several candidates don’t have their Octobers published yet. I went off of the 30After as a good guess as to how the overall standing is for them. (The Mense/Nieves seat is safe R, but I don’t want to bother finding how to republish on Google Docs)

The breakdowns aren’t hard to explain. Competitive seats should be competitive. Intriguing seats might be competitive based on fundraising parity or previous results. Some intriguing seats will probably flip while competitive seats stay with Republicans. Safe seats will be safe.

Of the 57 Republican seats, 16 stand out as being competitive (with 7 open seats), 14 are intriguing, and 27 are safe.

Amongst the Democratic seats, I think HD3 will be pretty close. HD2 and HD8 seem to be the focus of attention (with Shively getting a $15K check today). HD78 and HD82 should be winnable due to Page and Zweifel running statewide, but it’s a bit close. Witte is probably going to win. Fischer’s fundraising compared to Seiberlich is a bit uninspiring, but it’s in a blue district.

Amongst Republican competitive seats, the shadow of the HRCC’s giant warchest is going to effect things here. It’s much more than just spending ridiculous sums on cable television too.

For the sake of reference, non-incumbents who have already spent over $31,351.44 (the annual salary for the office)

David Moen (D-HD20), Jeanne Riddle (R-HD20), Chris Kelly (D-HD24, $130K!), Terry Stone (D-HD33), Margo McNeil (D-HD78), Frank Plescia (R-HD82), Jill Schupp (D-HD82), Randy Jotte (R-HD85), Vicki Englund (D-HD85), Jeanne Kirkton (D-HD91), Michael Winder (D-HD156), and Bill Burlison (D-HD159)

And some maps!

The Entire State:

STL County and St. Charles County

So.. money-wise. This is where we stand at the moment.