When we last heard from PPP, it was warmer and McCain had a 10 point lead (50 to 40).
But the totals are now 48/46 Obama
Other statewide totals:
Nixon 52, Hulshof 39; Kinder 47, Page 44; Carnahan 54, Hubbard 39; Zweifel 42, Lager 41; Koster 46, Gibbons 41
PPP’s sample (38D/32R/30I) appears to be slightly bluer than the August Sample (around 36R/35D/29I). It’s also slightly more realistic.
So, how about some comparisons for the Presidential poll over the last 7 weeks?
(August results are noted in parentheses)
McCain/Obama by Party
Democrat
McCain – 7% (15%)
Obama – 89% (78%)
Undecided – 4% (8%)Republican
McCain – 92% (87%)
Obama – 7% (9%)
Undecided – 1% (4%)Other
McCain – 46% (46%)
Obama – 40% (33%)
Undecided – 14% (21%)
Soon enough the story will be “Why can’t Obama win over Republican voters?”. But amongst Democrats and Others, he’s gaining ground and McCain is losing ground.
How about some gender splits?
Men
McCain – 45% (53%)
Obama – 48% (39%)
Undecided – 7% (8%)Women
McCain – 47% (47%)
Obama – 49% (42%)
Undecided – 5% (11%)
Why yes, Obama is gaining amongst both genders too.
Aand
Q10 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is most important to you?
War in Iraq – 10% (15%)
Education – 5% (7%)
Economy and Jobs – 63% (47%)
Taxes – 4% (4%)
Moral and Family Values – 12% (13%)
Health Care – 4% (8%)
Immigration – 2% (5%)
Other – 1% (1%)
Obama leads 57/38 amongst those who think the economy is important. The two issues stronger for him are education and health care.
So, in conclusion.. even the pesky polls that have produced Republican friendly results are showing a narrow Obama margin.
I’ll punt the ‘fun with downballot internals’ to Michael or any other interested frontpager.