It’s always funny to see pundits and reporters try to project what other people will think of events based purely on their own gut feeling. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Springfield, IL bureau chief Kevin McDermott tried to do just that when he pulled blogger duty for the Political Fix debate coverage:

(My prediction so far is that McCain might be declared, slightly, the winner on style, but neither will be viewed as having changed the race)

Not surprisingly, Mr. McDermott was wrong.

CBS News: 39% Obama, 27% McCain

CNN: Obama 54% McCain 30%

Greenberg/Quinlan/Rosner: Obama 42% McCain 24%

Interestingly, as McDermott admits in a later post, Obama crushed McCain in likability and on who sounds more like a normal politician (McCain sounded the most like an ordinary politician), not to mention on every single issue, from Iraq and the war on terror to health care to the economy. So on style AND on substance, Obama came out ahead.

Leave the projection out of it, pundits. You have snap polls that give us fuller and more accurate information about the reactions of ordinary citizens coming out minutes after a debate. No reason to pretend you know what they might think better than they do.