Since I didn’t mention enough of these races, I figure now might be a time to make up for possible oversights. In the general theme of the post, it’s easy to overlook these districts due to the Republican primary turnout tilt from St. Charles and St. Louis. But the reasons for curiousity.

9 open Republican seats (7 St. Louis and 2 St. Charles), 3 open Democratic seats.

7 Republican seats in STL County and St. Charles County were won by 5% or less.

Overall: 8 Republican-held seats in St. Charles, 12 Republican-held seats in St. Louis County, 18 Democratic-held seats in St. Louis County.

So, let’s go to the map

(I shaved HD109 off of the map since it’s mainly in Franklin County despite having a portion in St. Charles County)

Uncontested Districts: HD69, HD70, HD71, HD72, HD74, HD75, HD76, HD77, HD79, HD80, HD81, HD83, HD84, HD88 (12 Dems, 2 Reps [HD84 – Icet and HD88 – Open])

So let’s go to the open districts

HD13

Open due to: Bob Onder trying (and failing) to win the MO-9 primary

Biggest city in the district: Lake St. Louis (10,169)

Nominees: Chuck Gatschenberger (R) and David E. Hurst (D)

Primary voting split: 70% for Reps candidates, 30% for Hurst

2006 results: Bob Onder unopposed

Quick judgment: Probably not high on a list of flippable seats.

HD18

Open due to: Matt Blunt doggedly refusing to call for a special election after Tom Dempsey resigned his seat to become a State Senator

District is made up of: St. Charles

Nominees: Anne Zerr (R) and Tim Swope (D)

Primary voting split: 64/36 Reps, but Swope won more votes in his uncontested primary than Zerr won in her contested primary.

2006 results: 53/47 Dempsey

Judgment: One to watch, as Swope was the St. Charles Sheriff (as a Republican) and is the police chief.

HD85

Open due to: Jim Lembke running for the State Senate

Largest city in the district: Mehlville (14,655)

Nominees: Cloria Brown (R) and Vicki Englund (D)

Primary voting split: 54/46 Dem (1524 Brown, 1222 Englund, 607 Wagganer)

2006 results: 52/48 Lembke

Judgment call: Very ripe to flip from my outsider’s perspective.

HD86

Open due to: Term limits

Made up of: Chesterfield

Nominees: Cole McNary (R) and Marty Ott (D)

Primary voting split: 71/29 Rep

2006 results 56/44 Cunningham over Ott

Judgment call: I’d expect it to come within 10 points with a stronger margin for Ott is there’s a larger tidal wave. Although McNary won a commanding total for a 6-way primary.

HD87

Open due to: Scott Muschany not wanting to get arrested for deviant sexual assault in the middle of a campaign (Muschany instead retired and got arrested a few weeks ago)

Largest city: Ladue (pop. 8645)

Nominees: John Diehl (R) and Mark Zoole (D)

Primary voting split: 61/39 Rep in two uncontested primaries

2006 results: Muschany 55/45

Judgment call: Intriguing seat, it was suddenly opened months ago as Muschany retired shortly after the alleged encounter that he got arrested for a few weeks ago. I don’t know enough about how Zoole is performing to say if we would have had a better candidate if Muschany bailed out earlier.

HD91

Open due to: Term limits

Largest city: Webster Groves (pop. 20746 in district)

Nominees: Randy Jotte (R) and Jeanne Kirkton (D)

Primary voting split: 52/48 Rep with the Rep primary being contested

2006 results: Fares 50.7, Trout 49.3

Judgment call: Very winnable

HD92

Open due to: Term limits

Largest city: Manchester (pop. 19,361)

Nominees: Sue Allen (R) and Ronnie Herman (D)

Primary split: 67/33 Rep

2006 results: 56/44 Portwood

Judgment call: Maybe being next to a few other close districts will rub off on HD92

HD95

Open due to: Sudden retirement

Largest city: Crestwood (pop. 11,863)

Nominees: Mike Leara (R) and Alice Geary Sgroi (D)

Primary split: 59/41 Rep

2006 results: 60/40 Avery

Judgment: Might be safe, but I won’t go all-in on that call.

and now a switch to some non-open seats that were close in 2006

HD15 (Sally Faith)

Almost completely made up of: St. Charles (with 582 St. Peters residents too)

Democratic nominee: Michael Niemeyer

Primary split: 58/42 Rep

2006 results: Sally Faith 50, Tom Green 48

Judgment: Not the closest St. Charles seat (as we’ll see in a moment or two) but a promising seat.

HD16 (Mark Parkinson)

Mainly made up of: St. Peters

Democratic nominee: Kristy Manning (who we can see on the ads here)

Primary split: 58/42 Rep

Feb 2008 results: Parkinson 52, Fann 48

2006 results: Bearden 55, Ed Appelbaum 45

Judgment: Kristy’s ad says it all, close the gap and the seat flips.

HD17 (Vicki Schneider)

Split between: St. Peters and O’Fallon

Democratic nominee: Kenny Biermann

Primary split: 54/46 Rep

2006 results: Schneider 51, Biermann 49

Judgment: This is a very winnable seat in St. Charles. But it’s a matter of what prevails, an incumbent who has another shot after a close call or a challenger who is closing the gap

HD93 (Dwight Scharnhorst)

Democratic nominee: Phil Bognar

Primary split: 59/41 Rep

2006 results: Scharnhorst 52, Genevieve Frank 48

Judgment: See HD94 judgement

HD94 (Rick Stream)

Made up of: Kirkwood

Democratic challenger: Deb Lavender

Primaty split: 53/47 Rep

2006 results: Stream 51, Jane Bogetto 49 (one of two Dem seat losses in 2006)

Judgment: HD93 and HD94 both opened up in late 2005. Jane Bogetto picked up HD94, but Genevieve Frank lose to Scharnhorst in February 2006. The districts border each other. But HD94 is more friendly and barring a huge surprise, it should be bluer for Lavender than HD93.

Seats passed over for a mention: George “Boots” Weber’s HD89 bid against Timothy Jones and Jan Polizzi’s HD97 bid against Walt Bivins missed the cut in STL County. Debbie Cook’s bid against Cynthia Davis in HD19 also missed the cut for an extensive mention.

Open Democratic seats in STL County:

Steve Brown is the nominee in HD73 (Margaret Donnelly’s seat) against Daniel O’Sullivan. Margo McNeil is the nominee in HD78 (Clint Zweifel’s seat) against T. R. Carr. Jill Schupp is the nominee in HD82 (Sam Page’s seat). Schupp’s vote total was lower than the total for Terry Frank and Republican nominee Frank Plescia. I’d imagine these seats are reasonably safe.

So, the current verdict: Three open seats are very winnable, while 4 other seats are looking very good. St. Louis and St. Charles County Dems have the potential to help in closing the gap between 71 and 82.

Lastly, the people who are reading from the St. Louis area can help supplement all of this. They should be pretty good in helping note the promising seats for Democrats in the St. Louis/St. Charles area. So feel free to comment.