I heard a rather surprising statement tonight about the primary in the 121st. (If it was about Johnson County, then I misheard it).
But in the 121st, with David Pearce on the ballot. The Republican Primary did not have more votes than the Democratic primary. The totals were 1746 for the three Democrats (Jim Jackson, Arton and Alvarado) and 1723 for the two Republicans (Hoskins and Hedrick).
Back in the 2006 primary, the totals were 1600 for Pearce and 779 for Alvarado.
So.. I went to the results and the numbers tonight, and this is some of what I found.
First, it’s time for a short precaution in regards to primary turnout in counties. Sometimes county offices or other habits will lead to primaries having high turnout for one side but closer elections. So mileage may vary, and I will note cases of suspect areas in regards to primary turnout and general election results. Do not mix primary turnout results with pop rocks and Coca-Cola.
But the 121st was not first when it comes to wild turns in turnout. That honor belongs to the Sedalia-based 118th district. Back in 2006, Jerry Beck won 1164 votes, and Todd Smith won 2166 votes. On August 5th, the Democratic field won 1590 votes (with , and Stanley Cox won 1333 votes. To be fair to the 121st, if we add the votes for emerging frequent candidate Philip Sherman, then the Republicans had more votes. But counting those votes shows a swing from 65/35 to 52/48, not counting them is a swing from 65/35 to 46/54 (A 19 point swing). So, did Pettis County have some exciting Democratic primaries for county office this year? or are they trying to tell us something?
Some other big swings were found in HD94 and HD55. HD94 had a 66/34 Rep turnout when Jane Bogetto briefly held the seat. In 2008, the turnout was 53/47 for Stream over Deb Lavender.
In HD55, back in 2006 it was a 62/38 in the primary, and a 51/49 turnout in 2008 between Bryan Pratt and Mike O’Donnell. My only note of caution is that the 2006 turnout may have tilted Republican due to the Bartle/Johnson primary. But a 51/49 split in that area is very surprising.
There was also a swing in HD54, Matzeder/Dusenberg (60/40 in 06, 52/48 in 08). I’ll also note that the turnout in HD56 (Yates v. Chris Ruggles) was 55/45 Republican. But nobody ran against Yates in 2006. It was the best percentage turnout for Dems in a seat they’re contesting now and didn’t contest in 2006. (Runner-up: HD123 with Juan Alonzo in an open seat).
How about some other districts where Democratic turnout was improved and Democratic candidates won more votes?
HD36 (Nance-R v. Barbara Lanning) in Ray County went 74/26 Dem.
Money info: $69,331 spent and $34,127 on hand for Nance. $3,943 spent and $13,831 on hand for Lanning. (8 day reports)
2006 results: 67/33 D in the primary, Nance won 61/39.
Verdict: Be skeptical based on previous results. That spending gap is a bit daunting. But this could surprise you with closeness.
HD122 (McGhee-R v. Beth Grubb) in Lafayette and Johnson (and I think Cass too, which surprised me). 59/41 Dem.
Money: McGhee has spent $6,016, and has $21,223 on hand. Grubb has spent $8,228 and has $4,461 on hand.
2006 results: 54/46 D in the primary, 56/44 McGhee in November.
Verdict: Lots of potential and reasons to be positive. I think the spending gap has been mentioned on here.
HD5 (Guest-R v. Mike Waltemath) in a Northwest Missouri rematch of 2006. The primary margin was 65/35 Democrats.
Money: $14,036 spent and $21,293 on hand for Guest. $428.70 spent and $2421 on hand for Waltemath.
2006 results: 62/38 D in the primary and 51/49 Guest in November.
Verdict: For those of you who haven’t done the math yet, Guest has outspent Waltemath 32.74 to 1. Waltemath actually spent money in 2006 too. So hopefully this one actually curves to our side, and presumably Waltemath will narrow the gap with the Ron Paul-supporting Jim Guest.
HD34: Tom Niffen topped Tim Flook 51/49 in primary voting after being topped 51/49 in the 06 primary (and losing 59/41).
HD38: Josh Reed topped Ryan Silvey 57/43 (and Silvey was outvoted 54/46 in 2006). Silvey won by 11 in 2006.
HD47: Jason Norbury topped Jeff Grisamore by 18 votes in the primary (after a 53/47 Rep split in 2006). Grisamore won an open seat by 2 in 2006.
Some Democrats who topped their opponents without improvement in Democratic turnout:
*Keri Cottrell (v. Munzlinger) in HD1, a 54/46 district in 2006.
*Kelly Schultz (v. Steve Hobbs) in HD21, a 52/48 district in 2006.
*Gail Brown (v. Therese Sander) in HD22, a 54/46 district in 2006.
*Chris Kelly (v. Ed Robb) in HD24, a 50.6/49.4 district in 2006.
*Terry Stone (v. Jerry Nolte) in HD33, a 50.5/49.5 district in 2006.
*Joe Volpe (v. Will Kraus) in HD48, a 52/48 district in 2006.
*Vicki Englund (v. Cloria Brown) in HD85, a 52/48 district in 2006 which is open with the departure of Jim Lembke.
*Kristi Kenney (v. Scott Largent) in HD120, a 56/44 district opened up by the term-limits induced departure of Shannon Cooper.
*Carla Keough (v. Barney Fisher) in HD125, a 60/40 district in 2006. And one that has been mentioned before on here.
Districts worth bringing up
HD15 (Faith-R v. Niemeyer-D, 51/49 R in 2006) went in our direction by 8 points.
HD16 (Parkinson-R v. Kristy Manning), 51.6/48.4 in 2006) went in our direction by 7 points.
HD17 (Schneider-R v. Kenny Biermann, a 51/49 district in 2006) went in our diection by 5 points.
HD91 (Jotte-R v. Jeanne Kirkton, a 50.7/49.3 district in 2006), went towards Republicans by 5 points (compared to 2006’s primary) in an open seat contest
HD93 (Scharnhorst-R v. Phil Bognar, a 52/48 district in 2006) went towards Democrats by 2 points (which means 59/41 and not 61/39)
Other stuff that may not be in a close seat but is still somewhat interesting:
Former St. Louis area State Senator and current Cole County Treasurer Al Mueller recieved 1375 votes to Mark Bruns’ 3094 votes in HD113.
Former Congressman Bill Burlison (who spent some time in elective office recently in Maryland) recieved 1989 votes to 2496 votes for Billy Pat Wright in HD159.
In regards to defense, HD3 (Casey Guernsey v. Sullivan County Clerk Mike Hepler) is worth keeping an eye on. HD2 (Van Vleck v. State Rep. McClanahan), HD137 (Norr v. Day) and HD138 (Lampe v. Goodart) are the other districts where incumbent Democrats recieved fewer votes in their primary. HD82 had a slight Republican lean, but it would be a bit unlikely to see Sam Page’s district flip now.
All we need is to pick up 11 seats. It’s workable and there’s a lot of places that we can go on offense at, and not as many locations where we’ll be on defense. But that make it sound far too easy, there are some obvious gaps in campaign funds that will play in this election.
Extra stuff: Feel free to drop info on races (both those covered and uncovered), or links
to websites, or notable stuff like that.