SurveyUSA released a 542 sample poll of “registered voters” in Missouri on April 17th which was in the field from April 11th through the 13th. The poll runs head to head match ups between McSame and the Democratic candidates. The margin of error is 4.3%.
The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City.
If there were an election for President of the United States today, and the only two names on the ballot were Republican John McCain and … Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
All
McCain – 46%
Clinton – 47%
Undecided – 6%
What if it was John McCain against Democrat Barack Obama?
All
McCain – 50%
Obama – 42%
Undecided – 8%
These numbers have remained essentially unchanged (within the margin of error) since the March SurveyUSA poll.
The crosstabulations by party identification are always interesting:
Party Affiliation
Democrats [40% of sample]
McCain – 15%
Clinton – 76%
Undecided – 9%McCain – 27%
Obama – 64%
Undecided – 9%republicans [24% of sample]
McCain – 92%
Clinton – 7%
Undecided – 1%McCain – 92%
Obama – 6%
Undecided – 2%Independents [28% of sample]
McCain – 52%
Clinton – 43%
Undecided – 5%McCain – 47%
Obama – 47%
Undecided – 6%
There is a 12% gap of self-identified Missouri Democrats who would vote for McCain over Obama when compared to McCain/Clinton. There’s been erosion in McSame’s numbers among Independents since March. And Obama’s numbers among self-identified Missouri republicans have dropped since that same March survey.
Top Issues for Next President (McCain/Clinton and McCain/Obama numbers for “who would you vote for?” within each group)
Economy [44% of sample]
McCain – 40%
Clinton – 54%
Undecided – 6%McCain – 45%
Obama – 48%
Undecided – 8%Health Care [12% of sample]
McCain – 33%
Clinton – 64%
Undecided – 2%McCain – 41%
Obama – 45%
Undecided – 15%Iraq [11% of sample]
McCain – 37%
Clinton – 55%
Undecided – 7%McCain – 39%
Obama – 51%
Undecided – 10%Terrorism [9% of sample]
McCain – 94%
Clinton – 6%
Undecided – 0%McCain – 86%
Obama – 13%
Undecided – 1%Immigration [6% of sample]
McCain – 87%
Clinton – 12%
Undecided – 1%McCain – 85%
Obama – 14%
Undecided – 0%Environment [5% of sample]
McCain – 26%
Clinton – 57%
Undecided – 17%McCain – 37%
Obama – 51%
Undecided – 12%Social Security [4% of sample]
McCain – 38%
Clinton – 57%
Undecided – 4%McCain – 52%
Obama – 44%
Undecided – 4%Education [3% of sample]
McCain – 37%
Clinton – 54%
Undecided – 9%McCain – 36%
Obama – 64%
Undecided – 0%
McSame continues to hold the republican “fear” base [Terrorism and Immigration]. Economic worries are the most important issue at the expense of even those republican base issues. The smaller subsamples do have a larger margin of error. The differences in support levels for Clinton and Obama among “Social Security” voters strikes me. It would be interesting to see if this holds true across other states (or even in Missouri over time). There doesn’t appear to be much difference for Clinton and Obama in the numbers on Iraq.
Gender
Male [48% of sample]
McCain – 49%
Clinton – 45%
Undecided – 7%McCain – 47%
Obama – 45%
Undecided – 8%Female [52% of sample]
McCain – 44%
Clinton – 50%
Undecided – 6%McCain – 53%
Obama – 40%
Undecided – 7%
There is a definite gender gap when it comes to Clinton and Obama. Female voters support McCain over Obama by a much bigger margin than males. Males support Clinton and Obama in similar numbers (within the margin of error).
THE story of this poll is that gender gap between Clinton’s performance and Obama’s performance. A Democrat drawing only 40% of the vote among women is almost unheard-of. This gives me hope that once the McCain-Obama matchup starts to materialize, a lot of those women will “come home” to the Dem nominee.
For Obama to be only trailing 47-45 among men is very, very good.
and direct our energy to something other than the protracted primary drama.