With seven more days to file (until Tuesday the 25th), it’s time to take a look at the current field.
In order to break down this field, we’ll divide the state into 9 regions, as approximated in this map (some districts will cross over county lines.
The overall breakdown of the regions
Region 1 (STL City): 10 Democrats
Region 2 (STL Suburbs): 11 Republicans, 6 Democrats
Region 3 (STL County): 18 Democrats, 12 Republicans
Region 4 (West-Central): 17 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Region 5 (KCMO): 14 Democrats, 5 Republicans
Region 6 (Northwest): 10 Republicans, 5 Democrats
Region 7 (Southwest): 22 Republicans, 2 Democrats
Region 8 (Southeast): 9 Republicans, 7 Democrats
Region 9 (Northeast): 7 Democrats, 6 Democrats
Now there’s more under the fold.
Overall, there are 35 open seats from what I have noticed. The accuracy of that is probably not 100% and if I made any errors, feel free to point them out.
18 Republicans and 17 Democrats will be leaving the Assembly after this session.
Now let’s go to the region-by-region summaries
Open: HD58, 61, 63, 67, 108
Not Open: HD57, 59, 60, 64, 65
Currently no Republicans have filed in any of these districts. Nine of these 10 districts were uncontested in 2006.
HD58: James Morris and Sam Coleman have filed to replace Rodney Hubbard (who is running in SD5)
HD61: Chris Carter and Curtis Royston have filed to replace Connie Johnson (who is termed out)
HD63: Tishaura Jones and April Harris have filed to replace Robin Wright Jones (who is running in SD5)
HD67: Mike Colona, Chad Beffa, and Joan Landmann have filed to replace Mike Daus (who is termed out)
HD108: Jacob Hummel has filed to replace Tom Villa (who is termed out)
Overall, don’t expect anything too exciting after August here. Unless something goes epically wrong.
STL Suburbs (HD 11 thru 19, 90, 98, 101 through 103, 105, 109, and 111)-
HD13: Chuck Gatschenberger (R) and Kevin Kuhlmann (R) are running to replace Bob Onder (R) (who is running for Congress)
HD18: Anne Zerr and Matthew Seeds are running for the Republican nod for the long-vacant 18th district. Tim Swope is running for the Democratic nod.
HD109: Scott Dieckhaus (R), Laura Elizabeth Sprehe (R), Kent Cunningham (D), and Donald D. Meyer (D) are running to fill the seat opened up by Kevin Threlkeld’s candidacy for Franklin County Treasurer. Threlkeld was unopposed in 2006.
Seats without a Democratic party candidate so far: HD12, HD13 (no candidate in 06), HD14, and HD19.
Seats without a Republican party candidate: HD11, HD90, HD101, HD102, HD103, HD105 (why yes, no Democrat is opposed so far)
Seats of interest:
HD15 (50/48 in 06, Faith v. Michael Niemeyer?)
HD16 (recently filled seat, rematch from Feb 08 [Parkinson/Fann])
HD17 (51/49 in 06, rematch between Schneider and Biermann)
HD18 (vacant seat, 53/47 in 06), HD98 (58/42 in 06, possible rematch).
With at least four Republican seats in play, this should be an area of interest.
STL County (HD66, 69-89, 91-97, and 100)
6 Democratic seats are open, 5 Republican seats are open
Open Democratic seats:
HD70: Sharon Pace and Jack Chase are running to fill the seat that is currently vacant due to the resignation of John Bowman.
HD71: Roger Wilson (no not that one), Don Calloway, and Vernon Harlan are running here (Esther Haywood is termed out).
HD73: Stacey Newman (D) and Steve Brown (D) are running here, Daniel F. O’Sullivan Jr. (R) is also running (this seat is open due to the Attorney General candidacy of Margaret Donnelly)
HD78: Margo McNeil is the only filed candidate to fill the seat opened by the Treasurer candidacy of Clint Zweifel.
HD81: Rochelle Walton Gray and Don Krank are filed to replace Juanita Head Walton (who is termed out, and challenging Timothy Green for the State Senate)
HD82: Jill Schupp (D) and Terry Frank (R) are the only filed candidates for the seat opened up by the Lt. Gubernatorial candidacy of Sam Page.
As to the dynamics and primary odds, someone else can fill us in on that.
Open Republican seats:
HD85: Vicki Lorenz Englund (D), Ron Wagganer (D), and Cloria Brown (R) are candidates for the seat of Jim Lembke (who is running for the State Senate)
HD86 (Chesterfield): Dick Riley (R), Robin Harris (R), Dave Countie (R), Kyle Tate (R), Joseph Gambino (D), and Marty Ott (D) are running to fill the seat of Jane Cunningham (who is termed out and running for the State Senate)
HD88 (Ballwin/Winchester): Chris Howard (R), Shamed Dogan (R), and Andrew Koenig (R) are running to fill the seat held by Neal C. St. Onge (who is termed out and running for the State Senate)
HD91: Joan McGivney (R), Randy Jotte (R), Jeanne Kirkton (D), and Katherine Bruckner (D) are running to fill the seat of Kathlyn Fares (who is termed out)
HD92: Sue Allen (R) and Ronica “Ronnie” Herman (D) are running to fill Chuck Portwood’s seat (who is termed out).
Seats uncontested by Republicans so far: HD69 through 77, HD79 through 81, HD83, HD96, and HD100 (15 uncontested)
Seats uncontested by Democrats so far: HD84, HD88, HD93, HD95
Seats of interest-
HD82 (Open seat)
HD85 (52/48 in 06, open)
HD91 (51/49 in 06, open)
HD94 (51/49 in 06, Deb Lavender is running)
I’d put HD93 on the list, if a candidate was running.
Overall: Four seats of interest, perhaps more ripe seats due to five Republican seats being open in St. Louis County.
West Central Missouri (HD26, 112-125, 146, 148, 155)
HD120 (mainly Henry County): Scott N. Largent (R), Orval Lee Page (R), and Kristi Kenney (D) are running to fill the seat of Shannon Cooper (who is termed out)
HD121 (Warrensburg): Denny Hoskins (R), Jim Jackson (D), and Art Arton (D) are running to fill the seat of David Pearce (who is running in SD31).
HD123 (Belton/Raymore): Chris Molendorp (R-Belton) and Raymore Mayor Juan Alonzo (D) are running to fill the seat of Brian L. Baker.
HD149 (Rolla): Dan W Brown (R), Dave Keller (R), and Wayne Bledsoe (D) are running to fill the seat of Bob May (who is termed out).
Joe Aull (D-Marshall) doesn’t have an opponent (and he didn’t have one in 2006).
HD112 through 117 are uncontested, HD119, 146, and 148 are also uncontested.
Seats of interest:
HD120 is a winnable seat. Henry County went for McCaskill. HD121 is also winnable. I’ve also heard good things in regards to HD122 where Beth Grubb is running against Michael McGhee. Hopefully a good run can be made from HD120 to even HD123 (although I can’t tell you much about the demographics of HD123). HD149 might surprise you too. Depending on how the cards fall (preceding not an addition of HD149 to the list).
As for the uncontested seats, I will note that Lucas Kunce only lost 56/44 to Mark Bruns in HD113.
West-Central Missouri could be pretty helpful this November.
Jackson County (HD37, 39 through 56)
HD43, 44, and 49 (maybe?) are open.
In HD43, Annmarie Jackson and Roman Edward Lee are running to fill the seat of Craig Bland (who is termed out)
In HD44, Jason Kander, Amy Coffman, and Mary Cosgrove Spence are running to fill the seat of Jenee’ Lowe (who is termed out)
In HD49, either it’s a primary battle or an open seat. I didn’t find anything one way or another here. Tom McDonald and Jason Parson are running. Terry Young might be too.
Note: In HD40 (Northeast KC/Riverfront), JJ Rizzo will be facing John Patrick Burnett for the third cycle in a row (Burnett won by a 841-834 margin in 2006). If Burnett wins again, then this will be the final meeting between the two for the state house. If Rizzo wins, then we could have three more meetings between them (at the most).
Uncontested seats: Every Democrat in Jackson County other than Curt “Bud” Dougherty is un
opposed. Brent Lasater is running against Dougherty, no word on if the Coors/Miller alliance will get involved. Overall in Jackson County: 13 uncontested Dems right now.
Pratt (HD55) and Yates (HD56) are uncontested right now.
Seats of interest
HD47: Jason Norbury (who ran for the State Senate against Matt Bartle in 06) is running against Jeff Grisamore. Grisamore won the open seat by a 51/49 margin in 2006.
HD48: Joe Volpe and former Rep. Mike Sager are running against Will Kraus. Kraus won 52/48 over Chris Moreno in 2006.
Northwest Missouri (HD3-5, 7, 27-38)
HD3: 2006 candidate Casey Guernsey (R) and Mike Hepler (D-Browning) are running for the seat of Jim Whorton (who is termed out).
HD7: Dale Wallace (R), Mike Lair (R), and Harry Wyse (D) are running to fill the seat of John Quinn (who is termed out)
Uncontested by the Republicans: HD27, HD29, HD31, HD32
Uncontested by the Democrats: HD4 (Thomson, R-Maryville), HD28 (Schaaf, R-St. Joseph), HD30 (Brown, R-Platte City), HD34 (Flook, R-Liberty).
Seats of interest
HD3: This is probably the hardest seat to hold. But hopefully it can be pulled off.
HD5: Mike Waltemath is aiming for a rematch with Ron Paul supporter Jim Guest. Waltemath lost 51/49 in 2006.
HD33: Terry Stone is also aiming for a rematch with Jerry Nolte. Stone lost 51/49 in 2006.
HD36 and HD38 might be seats of interest. HD36 is in the blue Ray County. HD38 is in Northern KC (North of Gladstone). It depends on the winds.
Southwest Missouri (HD62, 68, 126-145, 147, 151)
HD136 (Springfield): Eric Burlison (R) and Nick Beatty (D) are running to fill the seat opened by B. J. Marsh (who is termed out)
HD144: Del Davis (R) and Dennis Lee Chilton (D) are running to fill the seat opened by Van Kelly (who is also termed out)
No Dems have filed in HD68, 126-131, 133-134, 139-142, 145, 147, and 151 (16 Districts)
Seats of interest
HD132 is notable since Dake was elected in 2006. But I’m not going to quite put it on the list. I’m not entirely confident in Dake’s chances in a Presidential election year. But who knows these days. Charles Dake won despite the odds once.
HD136 could be pretty competitive as well, as it’s next to two blue districts (Norr and Lampe), and it was 56/44 in 2006.
Southeast Missouri (HD104, 106-107, 110, 150, 152-163)
HD156: Shelley Keeney (R) and Michael Winder (D) are running for the seat opened up by Rod Jetton.
HD158: Wayne Wallingford (R) and Jeff Glenn (R) are running to fill the seat that’ll be opened by the retirement of Mary Kasten (who was elected in February).
uncontested by the Reps: HD104, HD110, HD152, HD161, 162, 163
uncontested by the Dems: HD106, HD153, 154, 157, 158, and 160
Seats of interest
HD156: Jetton won by a 57/43 margin. The seat seems competitive enough due to the combo of general election closeness and primary election turnouts. (As opposed to some districts which vote overwhelmingly in the Democratic primary, and then vote Republican in November)
HD159: Billy Pat Wright might be pressed by Bill Burlison (probably not that Bill Burlison). Wright won 57/43 in 2006.
I’d put HD153 on the list if a strong challenger appears (Dethrow won narrowly in 2006). HD160 might be listable, although Brandom won by a pretty convincing margin for an open seat.
Northeast Missouri (HD1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 20-25, 99)
HD20: Tom Scheppers (R), Jeanie Riddle (R), Don Salcedo (D), and David Moen (D) are running for the seat held by Danie Moore (who is termed out and running for Congress).
HD23: Cande Iveson (D) and Stephen Webber (D) are running for the seat currently held by Jeff Harris (who is running for Attorney General)
HD25: Sean Spence (D), Mary Wynne Still (D), Bob Pund (D), Ryan Asbridge (R) are running for the seat held by Judy Baker (who is running for Congress).
Uncontested by Republicans: HD6, HD8, HD9, HD23
Seats of interest
HD2: Right now, I think it’s reasonable to keep an eye out on this seat. I don’t know a lot about how a McClanahan/Thom Van Vleck matchup will go
HD20: The seat is friendly enough to the Democrats and with the seat being open, it should be pretty competitive.
HD21: Kelly Schultz is the only Dem so far who is challenging Steve Hobbs (who won 52/48 in 2006).
HD22: Therese Sander won 54/46 in 2006 and she is being challenged by Gail Brown.
HD24: Chris Kelly is challenging Ed Robb, who won 51-49 in 2006.
59 of 71 Democrats are unchallenged
45 of 92 Republicans are unchallenged
31 of 34 STL area Democrats (region 1, 2, 3) are unchallenged.
13 of 14 Jackson county Democrats are unchallenged
Outside of Southwest Missouri (region 7), only 29 of 70 Republicans are unchallenged.
My count had 17 Republicans unchallenged in 2006 (along with 38 Democrats). 5 of those 17 are challenged in 2008.
14 of 17 open Democratic seats are in the STL area or in Jackson County (while 8 of 18 Republican open seats are in the STL area, 3 in the suburbs and 5 in the county). It’s worth pointing out the large number of open Republican seats in that area with the possibility of Nixon and Page at the top of the ticket, with a majority going to the Democratic candidate from STL County.
Some candidates in waiting: Patrick Crabtree (R) has a committee in HD23. Russ Unger (D) also has a commitee in HD23.
So with 7 filing days left, there’s still ground to cover in the “filing” part. But as to the “Seats of Interest”..
23 Republican seats and 2 Democratic seats is my count. As to where i’m being too optimistic or pessimistic is anybody’s guess right now.
But we’re 11 pickups from a majority. And we could pull it off here.
Here are some summary maps
Statewide (Unopposed Reps in dark red, Reps in red, open Rep seats in orange, open Dem seats in skyblue, Dems in blue, unopposed Dems in dark blue. Yellow squares for the notable seats)
And an STL area map (same color code)
Maps adapted from here
So are there any extra notes or thoughts about possible competitive state house seats? Or notes about possible candidates who have yet to file?
Here are some statewide result maps from 06) (Dem pickups get a skyblue square, Rep pickups get an orange square)