I first mentioned the Edwards vote in the primary when I noticed that the percentages in the total vote and the absentee vote in Johnson County were significantly different.
Absentee voting started in late December. John Edwards dropped out of the race in late January.
Remembering that the plural of anecdote is not data, I thought I’d take a look at the available numbers from a few other counties. At least some of those that have the information accessible…
Total
Hillary Clinton – 1427 63.05%
Barack Obama – 676 30.08%
John Edwards – 106 4.71%
Other – 38 1.69%
Absentee
Hillary Clinton – 66 66.67%
Barack Obama – 19 19.19%
John Edwards – 11 11.11%
Other – 3 3.03%
[emphasis added] tiny URL
Total
Hillary Clinton – 4089 45.23%
Barack Obama – 4642 51.34%
John Edwards – 264 2.92%
Other – 45 .50%
Absentee
Hillary Clinton – 214 43.14%
Barack Obama – 195 39.31%
John Edwards – 72 14.52%
Other – 15 3.02%
[emphasis added] tiny URL
Total
Hillary Clinton – 18,317 54.94%
Barack Obama – 14,261 42.77%
John Edwards – 613 1.84%
Other – 149 .45%
Absentee
Hillary Clinton – 463 54.34%
Barack Obama – 277 32.51%
John Edwards – 102 11.97%
Other – 10 1.18%
[emphasis added]
Is there a trend here?
This is a small sampling of counties in Missouri. You would think that a major newspaper political pundit might decide to take a look at real numbers. Maybe even for a few counties in Missouri.
What might our hypothetical newspaper pundit pontificate on if they took a look at these numbers? They could say that Hillary Clinton’s support remained stable after John Edwards dropped out of the race. Or, they might say that it’s possible that John Edwards’ supporters stayed home in droves – or even that they moved over to Barack Obama in significant numbers. Or, they might say that the undecideds broke to Obama (or maybe not). Fancy that.
And what was the demographic makeup of John Edwards’ supporters?
Wrong again.
The stenographer actually writes:
…Despite Obama’s success elsewhere, the thrashing outstate revives memories of the last time an African-American ran statewide in Missouri…
…Back to race. Connor states, point-blank, that the Missouri primary results suggest that Obama, who wound up carrying the state by 10,000 votes, will have trouble here in November if he’s the Democratic nominee. If he can’t win rural Missouri, Connor said, he can’t carry the state – period – come November.
“If Missouri is always right, then that means he doesn’t win the presidency,” Connor said.
Let’s be honest: Wheat’s loss was attributable, in part, to race. And Obama performed more poorly in some rural counties against Clinton than Wheat did against Ashcroft 14 years ago (OK, Clinton’s voters were voting Democratic)…
Ah, the standard media narrative. Again. And the demographic makeup of Edwards’ supporters was what?
Speaking of media narratives: The stenographer also calls John McCain “the most moderate GOP candidate”. That’s like a medical professional saying “you have a mild case of Ebola with a touch of Marburg…”
Obama gained more Democratic votes than McCain did Republican in Greene County, and nearly outgained Huckabee. Does anyone think that he’s going to have a huge problem outstate that will outweigh overwhelming turnout in KC and St. Louis?
Remember, no matter what, it’s always good news for Republicans.