Edwards is gone. I don’t have a horse in the primary race next Tuesday, and, other than working at the polls, I’m not sure whether I’ll participate.
Other Edwards supporters might vote for him anyway or choose between Hillary and Barack. Nobody’s sure where those disappointed Edwards supporters will land. My gut would be that more of them will go for Obama than for Clinton, since her record is more conservative in some areas. Besides, Obama and Edwards were both vying for the I’m-not-Hillary spot, so it would seem natural for many of them to migrate toward Obama.
But I could be wrong. The Edwards people might split evenly.
I do know that unless Obama gets most of those votes he is, according to a poll conducted last week by the Post-Dispatch, in trouble in Missouri. He’s way behind Clinton. The poll shook out this way: Clinton–44 percent; Obama–31 percent; Edwards–18 percent.
You should each vote your conscience, of course, but from a purely pragmatic point of view, Hillary is a risky choice. She is neck and neck with the likely Republican choice, McCain (Clinton–45 percent; McCain–44 percent), whereas Obama is five points up (Obama–47 percent; McCain–42 percent). What that poll doesn’t show is how vitriolic the anti-Hillary voters are. They might not be excited about McCain, but to vote against Hillary? Oh yeah, they’ll show up. They’ll have far less interest in getting their bums down to the polls to vote against Obama, though.
That same mindset is what worries many Democratic insiders all over the state. They fear, as Claire McCaskill pointed out, that Hillary will be a serious drag on the downticket races. Their polls show her consistently running two to three percentage points lower in a general election than Obama would.
That many percentage points could mean the difference between picking up a couple more state senate seats and losing one. Missouri Dems have their hopes for improving the senate picture pinned on three suburban and three rural races. A Hillary candidacy probably wouldn’t hurt them in the suburban races. But those rural races? Yes. Not only does she poll four to five percentage points lower in those particular races than Obama does, her unfavorability rating in those places is shockingly high–in the sixties.
As a disappointed Dean supporter in ’04, I’m aware that selling Democrats on the electable candidate–John Kerry?!–isn’t necessarily a good idea. If you’re a Hillary supporter, go for it. I’m just offering some useful information to people who are still fence sitting.
Ryan McKenna, Tim Green, and Wes Shoemyer all endorsed Obama quickly after Edwards dropped out. A good source tells me that they were shown internal polling showing a huge drag on downticket races if Hillary were the nominee, and that pulled them over quickly.
In the new Survey USA Poll
Polls I see show Obama to the right of Hillary, except who knows because as he stated on George Steph last Sunday after a broad over view of his postitions. “I don’t want to get bogged down in the dogmas” . Personally, I like dogmas. Edwards was always very into his dogmas, clearly a plus for me.
Still, as one who follows health care issues closely, it is clear to me that Obama is more conservative on health care reform than Hillary. Obama’s plan leaves 15 million still uncovered.
I don’t see Hillary as any more risky that Obama insofar as electability. If McCain is the Republican candidate and chooses Mike Huckabee as his running mate (as per “One Good Move”) women would move into Hillary’s camp. Rural Caucasian men aren’t going to vote for Hillary, but with the choice of McCain vs. Obama, they will probably go McCain anyway. As a matter of fact, a McCain/Huck ticket looks very problematic for Dems.
What does bother me tho is the vicious vicious Hillary bashing on many web sites. There are a lot of us out here who will support Hillary rather that Obama.
Just rambling. Thanks for the post
I had anticipated that this might happen a week or two ago, and as a consequence, I have been trying to figure out what to do. I did find this article from the Nation, helpful in framing issues although I still not made up my minds.
I was given a citation to an earlier Nation article (sorry I no longer have the URL handy) that raised concerns abut Obama’s circle of economic advisors. However, when I looked more closely at his voting record, I found that he voted and spoke out against CAFTA and the Bankruptcy Bill and that the policies that he advocates, while not always as desirable as those of Edwards, still posit a mixed-economy and are far, far from the free-market radicalism that our present president wishes to practice.
I also preferred Edwards but now will vote for Obama. He still seems to me a bit of an unknown quantity as compared to Edwards but definately preferable to Hillary.
I can’t get past Hillary’s corporate connections, love of H1B visas, NAFTA approval (and other “free”trade deals), and her thumbs up for Dubya’s Iraqi war. One other thing I have noticed about her: Like Dubya she just can’t bring herself to say “I made a mistake”. In this week’s debate she had another chance to just do it. What does it cost to say “I did what I thought was right but it was a mistake.” I think there is something deeply wrong with a person who can’t do this. We don’t need another president (male or female) with a God complex.
I am disappointed by the healthcare plans of both candidates however. Neither plan is really single-payer. What is needed is to expand Medicare to include everyone and cut out the insurance companies. Pretty obvious we’ll not get anything close to that. Too much money has changed hands at this point.
By the way, did you notice that Wolf Blitzer referred to Obama and Clinton as “moderate Dems”. Sad.
Tonva, to admit a mistake is not necessarily to make an apology. “I goofed” is accepting the reality of your own behavior when you have goofed and quite different from saying “Geez, guys, I’m sorry I messed up and caused you so much blood and treasure. Please forgive me.”
You’re quite right that none of us needs her apology. What we do need is to be convinced that she is capable of dealing with reality even when it does not particularly flatter her. George W. Bush has shown us more of this type of behavior than we ever needed to see and at what price? He is way past owing apologies.
That was Alabama–I had them open in other windows…