( – promoted by Clark)
In a district where the vast majority of local elected officials are Democrats, it appears that the prospect of the first open seat since 1976 isn’t going to be a wasted opportunity.
Roll Call reports (via the Columbia Tribune Politics Blog):
A Democratic source in that state said “credible Democrats will emerge” to run for Congress should Hulshof throw his hat into the wide-open gubernatorial race. Such a scenario may complicate state Rep. Judy Baker’s (D) already slim chances, while offering Democrats the best shot at winning with possible candidates such as former Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell (D) and former state Speaker Steve Gaw (D).
“EMILY’s List would think [Baker’s] done a noble enough job that they’d stay with her, [but] local politicos would abandon her in droves if Maxwell got in,” the Democratic source said. “There’s s a general feeling, ‘God love her for trying to take on Kenny,’ but she’s probably not a great fit for that district.”
The source added: “Maxwell and Gaw are probably better for the cultural leanings of that district.”
So, the prospects?
I say that Maxwell would be a pretty strong favorite to win a primary. He carried the district easily in his last primary (Lt. Governors primary in 2000). He has a strong base in the northern part of the district, and enough prestige to do well in Columbia. Although Maxwell is someone who may still choose to stay out of this race due to his wife (he chose not to run for re-election in 2004 due to his wife’s health)
Steve Gaw would also be formidable to a degree. Gaw also ran statewide in 2000, and lost to Matt Blunt for Secretary of State.
The possibility of the first open seat primary in Northeast Missouri since 1976 is attracting quite a bit of attention.
In 1976, the Democratic primary had 11 candidates and was won by Harold Volkmer of Hannibal with 34.8% (Joe Frappier beat future state senator David Doctorian on the Republican side)
In 1964, the Democratic primary had 16 candidates and was won by William Hungate with 17.65% of the vote. The Republicans had four candidates that year.
But these were primaries back in the days that having an ultradivided August primary wasn’t considered a bad thing. And these were primaries when there was a strong Northeast Missouri base for Democrats in general elections.
So yes, if Hulshof leaves DC.. then there’s going to be a pretty big race in Northeast Missouri.
I want Hulshoff, Jetton, Steelman, Kinder, and Hanaway all to run for governor.
Go! go! go!
He is a very appealing candidate, and a proven vote-getter in rural NE Missouri. He is a little more conservative on some things, but very populist and fiery. And he sports a fierce ‘stache.
I’m not sure of Gaw’s appeal these days, having been out of the public eye since 2000. I imagine a lot of the fundraising contacts have dried up, but who knows?
Maxwell would indeed be a strong candidate. He is a bare-knuckles campaigner and would run very, very hard.
You didn’t mention that Rep. Judy Baker is already running against Hulshof. I don’t know much about her, but being a state rep would concern me, only insofar as she would not be well-known in the district.
This would be an interesting race, for sure. Hulshof always had the ability to pull big margins in Boone County. Would a different Republican be able to do the same?
… is if Maxwell jumps in, Steelman runs for Governor and no one else jumps in the Treasurer’s race.
But I hope she doesn’t back out. She would be competitive in this district. She’s extremely popular in Boone County, the main population center, and can talk up her faith in an effective way. (She has a master’s in divinity and is married to a Baptist preacher, IIRC.)
On top of that, she’s a true progressive. Gotta love it.