Utilizing the tools at our disposal (such as results and a list matching precincts to towns), let’s contrast and compare 2008 to 2004 in Eastern Jackson County.
2008 results-
Blue Springs: McCain 54, Obama 45 (14393-11914 McCain with 26659 votes cast)
Blue Summit: Obama 67, McCain 30 (97-43, 144 votes total)
Buckner: McCain 56, Obama 42 (666-504, 1193 votes total)
Grain Valley: McCain 58, Obama 41 (2999-2093, 5150 votes total)
Grandview: Obama 69, McCain 30 (7121-3084, 10338 votes total)
Greenwood: McCain 56, Obama 43 (1378-1040, 2439 votes total)
Independence: Obama 51, McCain 47 (25658-23666, 50195 votes cast)
Lake Lotawana: McCain 61, Obama 38 (1250-779, 2042 votes cast)
Lake Tapawingo: McCain 54, Obama 44 (280-228, 514 votes cast)
Lee’s Summit: McCain 55, Obama 44 (24660-19692, 44750 votes cast)
Levasy: McCain 31 votes, Obama 24 votes, Nader 1 vote
Lone Jack: McCain 61, Obama 37 (281-171, 461 votes cast)
Oak Grove: McCain 54, Obama 44 (1511-1246, 2803 votes cast)
Raytown: Obama 58, McCain 41 (8123-5702, 14035 votes cast)
River Bend: Obama 7, McCain 3 [Precincts 14 & 16 in Blue Sub 1]
Sibley: Obama 94 votes, McCain 82 votes, 178 votes cast
Sugar Creek: Obama 57, McCain 40 (829-583, 1443 votes cast)
Unity Village: Obama 31 votes, McCain 17 votes, Barr 1 vote.
Unincorporated, Fort Osage: McCain 54, Obama 44 (2153-1752, 3955 votes)
Unincorporated, Prairie: McCain 68, Obama 31 (589-267, 871 votes)
Unincorporated, Sni-A-Bar: McCain 62, Obama 36 (964-564, 1546 votes)
Unincorporated, Van Buren: McCain 63, Obama 36 (1500-841, 2366 votes)
Absentee votes: Obama 52, McCain 47 (7647-7028, 14845 votes)
If you’re like most people, you have no idea where the “unincorporated township” areas are. A brief summary
Unincorporated Fort Osage is mostly east of the Little Blue and kind of NW in the county (I added some parts of unincorporated Blue Township since it’s in the Fort Osage School District). Unincorporated Prairie is mainly the area south of Blue Springs, east of Lee’s Summit and west of Lake Lotawana. Unincorporated Sni-a-Bar is partly east of the Little Blue and going to the Jackson/Lafayette County line. Unincorporated Van Buren is anything in SE Jackson County outside of Lake Lotawana and Lone Jack.
Anyways.. how about a comparison for the big places?
Blue Springs went for Bush by 19.7% in 2004, and for McCain by 9.3%
Grandview went for Kerry by 25.3% in 2004, and Obama by 39%
Independence went for Kerry by 0.6% in 2004, Obama by 4% in 2008
Lee’s Summit went for Bush by 23% in 2004, and for McCain by 11% in 2008
Raytown went for Kerry by 7% in 2004, and for Obama by 17% in 2008
The only towns to trend to McCain were Buckner, Green Valley (which cast 2815 votes in 2004 and 5150 votes in 2008), and Lake Lotawana. The unincorporated Sni-a-Bar areas also trended McCain.
Using more of our resources, let’s give out nods and acknowledgements.
Best Obama Precinct by township (with over 20 votes cast)
Blue: Blue Sub 1, Precinct 18 (Inter City Fire Station). Obama won 97-43 there. Runnerup was Blue Sub 8, Precinct 6 (Coventry Estates Baptist Church) with a 343-162 Obama win.
Brookings: Precinct 25 (Spring Valley Elementary). Obama won 517-173 there. Runnerup was Precinct 12/13 (First United Methodist Church-Raytown) with 609-272 Obama.
Fort Osage: Precinct 1/3 (Anchor Point Baptist Church) which went 33-28 Obama. Runnerup was Precinct 4, which is Sibley, Missouri.
Prairie: Precinct 53 (Hazel Grove Elementary) which is also Unity Village. Runnerup: Precinct 2 (St Paul’s Episcopal Church) which went 346-302 Obama.
Sni-a-Bar: Precinct 14A/31B/75A/76/76A (Timothy Lutheran Church) which went 305-222 Obama. Runnerup was Precinct 23 (Parkview Community of Christ) which went 490-360 Obama.
Van Buren: Precinct 6/6A/7/11A (Lake Lotawana City Hall) which went 137-130 for McCain. No runner-up for this township.
Washington: Precinct 1/2 (Grandview Community of Christ) which went 1012-165 Obama. This Precinct was also Obama’s best in Eastern Jackson County. His second best precinct in EJC was Precinct 3/4/6 (Coronation of Our Lady Church) which went 1236-307 for Obama.
And for contrast, McCain’s best precincts
Blue: Blue Sub 1, Precinct 8 (The Independence Branch of Jesus Christ Restored Church) went 27-12 for McCain
Brooking: Precinct 19 (Southwood United Church of Christ) went 312-307 McCain.
Fort Osage: Precinct 11/12/26/28 (Buckner United Methodist Church) went 314-136 for McCain.
Prairie: Precinct 58C/63/63A/63B/65/77/77A/77B (Woodland Elementary) went 496-229 for McCain. I listed this as a Lake Lotawana precinct, although as you can see, there are 8 precincts in this location (6 of which add up to 24 voters), and the two largest are not listed as Lake Lotawana. Apologies to any Lake Lotawanans who were pretty sure their town wasn’t quite that conservative.
Sni-a-Bar: Precincts 02/03A/03B/04 (Sunny Vale Middle School) which went 458-193 for McCain. Three small precincts went uniamously for McCain, totaling 10 votes combined.
Van Buren: 01/01A/01B/01C/26 (Mason Elementary) which went 56-17 for McCain.
Washington: Precinct 10 (Southview Christian Church) which went 294-263 for McCain.
Results by township-
Blue: Obama 52, McCain 46 (26959-23926, 51817 votes)
Brookings: Obama 58, McCain 41 (8123-5702, 14035 votes)
Fort Osage: McCain 60, Obama 38 (1965-1240, 3261 votes)
Prairie: McCain 56, Obama 44 (27557-21589, 49594 votes)
Sni-a-Bar: McCain 55, Obama 43 (20980-16464, 37937 votes)
Van Buren: McCain 61, Obama 37 (2591-1579, 4215 votes)
Washington: Obama 69, McCain 30 (7121-3084, 10338 votes)
Conclusions time
#1: Some parts of suburbia shifted rather generously to Obama. Such as Blue Springs and Lee’s Summit. These places are still pretty rigidly conservative, but losing by 10 instead of 20 helps the overall showing.
#2: Independence South of 23rd was friendly to McCain. But no Independence precinct north of 23rd and west of 291 went for McCain. In fact, every subgroup of Blue Township (which is Independence west of Little Blue) except Blue Sub-8went for Obama. Blue Sub-3 and 6 went for Bush and Obama. As for the areas that were strong for us, there wasn’t a whole lot of movement and I don’t know how much work was put into those areas by the campaign (as opposed to canvassing south of 23rd).
#3: Way to go, Sibley!
#4: If the results by precinct for Clay County are released, we’ll see which parts of that county came through for us.
#5: Yes, a lot of these precincts are in churches. Seeing as they’re not doing much on Tuesdays and they’re supposed to be nonpartisan, it’s not that bad of an arrangement. My favorite precinct that I’ve heard about is in a BBQ restaurant in Belton. I don’t know how that is arranged through, so it may be less delicious than you’d think.
#6: Without having talked to people who worked on the campaign in Eastern Jackson County or people who experienced it, I can’t tell you how they fell short and only managed to turn an area that went for Bush by 8.8% into one that went for McCain by 1.13%. The easy route is to blame some of it on Grain Valley while hoping nobody from there is within distance to hear your comments.
That’s all for now.
…to quote Bartcop, “We’re read by dozens!”
this was a lot of work. Thanks!
Yes, a lot of these precincts are in churches. My experience in St. Louis is that tons of polling places are in churches. In the church hall or office – not the main part of the church. In precincts that might be primarily residential and not have a school or library located in its borders there is still often a church.
My favorite polling place that I’ve ever worked was a flower shop on the south side of the city. It was nice to see people come in and out with flowers – especially in cold weather. My second favorite polling place was a garage. Not a mechanic’s place of business but a private person’s garage for their car. There was no place in that precinct appropriate for a poll so someone volunteered their garage – which opened onto a main street. They cleaned it and put heaters in it and people voted there. This was long ago and when they re-drew all the lines the garage polling place was no longer needed.
Looking at the other Democrat who lost (Sam Page) – he won both metro areas including suburban Jackson County (including Clay County) but he didn’t hit the magic 40% in Greene county. I’m not sure I’m making a point here, but I thought that was interesting.