SurveyUSA released a 1523 sample poll of “likely voters” in Missouri on May 19th which was in the field from May 16th through the 18th. The poll runs head to head match ups between McSame and the Democratic candidates. The margin of error is 2.6%.
That’s a really big sample.
The poll was sponsored by KCTV in Kansas City and KSDK in St. Louis.
If the election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for?
All
McCain – 46%
Clinton – 48%
Undecided – 6%
If the election for President of the United States were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were (names rotated) Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, who would you vote for?
All
McCain – 48%
Obama – 45%
Undecided – 7%
These numbers have remained essentially unchanged (within the margin of error) since the April SurveyUSA poll.
The crosstabulations by party identification are always interesting:
Party Affiliation
Democrats [45% of sample]
McCain – 12%
Clinton – 82%
Undecided – 5%McCain – 20%
Obama – 72%
Undecided – 7%republicans [30% of sample]
McCain – 89%
Clinton – 9%
Undecided – 2%McCain – 89%
Obama – 8%
Undecided – 3%Independents [19% of sample]
McCain – 54%
Clinton – 36%
Undecided – 11%McCain – 49%
Obama – 39%
Undecided – 12%
Clinton’s and Obama’s numbers among self-identified Missouri republicans are virtually the same. The difference for the two Democrats is that Clinton does better among Democrats and Obama does slightly better among Independents.
Top Issues for Next President (McCain/Clinton and McCain/Obama numbers for “who would you vote for?” within each group)
Economy [50% of sample]
McCain – 43%
Clinton – 53%
Undecided – 5%McCain – 46%
Obama – 48%
Undecided – 6%Health Care [12% of sample]
McCain – 35%
Clinton – 59%
Undecided – 6%McCain – 34%
Obama – 56%
Undecided – 9%Iraq [11% of sample]
McCain – 31%
Clinton – 64%
Undecided – 5%McCain – 27%
Obama – 67%
Undecided – 6%Terrorism [7% of sample]
McCain – 80%
Clinton – 14%
Undecided – 6%McCain – 83%
Obama – 10%
Undecided – 7%Immigration [3% of sample]
McCain – 77%
Clinton – 20%
Undecided – 4%McCain – 82%
Obama – 14%
Undecided – 4%Social Security [4% of sample]
McCain – 44%
Clinton – 50%
Undecided – 6%McCain – 57%
Obama – 28%
Undecided – 14%Environment [3% of sample]
McCain – 41%
Clinton – 52%
Undecided – 6%McCain – 23%
Obama – 63%
Undecided – 14%Education [3% of sample]
McCain – 38%
Clinton – 49%
Undecided – 13%McCain – 49%
Obama – 43%
Undecided – 8%
McSame continues to hold the republican “fear” base [Terrorism and Immigration]. Economic worries continue to rise as the most important issue at the expense of even those republican base issues. The smaller subsamples do have a larger margin of error.
Gender
Male [48% of sample]
McCain – 55%
Clinton – 40%
Undecided – 5%McCain – 54%
Obama – 41%
Undecided – 5%Female [52% of sample]
McCain – 37%
Clinton – 56%
Undecided – 6%McCain – 43%
Obama – 47%
Undecided – 10%
There is a definite gender gap when it comes to Clinton and Obama. Males support Clinton and Obama in almost identical numbers.
I usually let the numbers speak for themselves, but after three consecutive polls a month in Missouri I can only come to one conclusion. It’s also a pragmatic solution. Both Clinton and Obama have to be on the ticket for the Democrats to carry Missouri in the presidential race in November.
RBH said:
I’d have no objection to the idea of Clinton on the ticket. Although it’s still hard for me to figure out an ‘obvious’ pick for VP.
As for party crosstabs
So both Dems are solidifying the base, and losing support from Independents.
Yeah, looks like the gender gap is working both ways. Men moved towards McCain, and Women are moving towards both Obama and Clinton.
Although the economic subcategory did stay the same for both candidates.
maryb2004 said:
on the ticket as VP. And I think these numbers look good for this point in the race when the Dems have been focused on each other and not on McCain who has been getting a free ride. I’m very optimistic about Missouri no matter who is on the ticket.
But while I’m fine with Clinton on the ticket, I’m not sure I buy the argument that their combination buys victory in any particular state but especially in Missouri.
We have to try to keep the margins as close as possible in rural Missouri by bringing out as many Dems as possible and hoping that the Repubs either cross over or stay home in bigger percentages than before. Each of Obama AND Clinton have some significant downside factors in outstate Missouri … but they are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Obama has the southern Missouri racist problem that could depress Democratic votes for him. Clinton has all the insane Clinton haters on the Republican side who can be motivated to come out and vote against her. That looks like a potential double whammy to me and I worry about that.
On the other hand, maybe each of them brings out so many voters in the blue areas that it will make up for that. I’ve just never seen a Dem win an election ONLY by big votes in the blue areas of the state.
Michael Bersin said:
…I’m not the only one to come to that conclusion.
A Unity Ticket Convert
The Combined Obama and Clinton Map
Two Popular Candidates, and Neither Is A Republican