(also, Fox/Rasmussen has Obama up by 5 in Missouri)

As for Suffolk’s poll…

Regional sampling: The City of St. Louis – 6% (one they got right!).. the STL suburbs – 30% (maybe if you only count the county, St. Charles, and Jefferson).. the KC area – 18% (consistent with 2004), Southwest MO – 20% (Nope, not even close)..

Party samples: 40% Democrats, 37% Republicans, 19% Independent (nope, not quite enough independents)

Age categories are a real hoot, and under the fold.

18-25: 2%

26-35: 6%

36-45: 17%

46-55: 26%

56-65: 21%

66-75: 16%

75+: 12%

The 2004 exit polls on age split like this

18-29: 20%

30-44: 29%

45-59: 32%

60+: 19%

So.. that’s SLIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHTLY off.

As for the actual poll

Q2&4. There are 6 candidates for President on your ballot [BZZZZZT, WRONG]: Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack Obama , Libertarian Bob Barr, Constitution Party Chuck Baldwin, Independent Ralph Nader, and Write-In Green Party Cynthia McKinney. At this point, for whom will you vote? {including leaners}

N= 600 100%

John McCain 270 45%

Barack Obama 262 44%

Bob Barr 2 0%

Chuck Baldwin 2 0%

Ralph Nader 6 1%

Cynthia McKinney 1 0%

Undecided 43 7%

Refused 14 2%

So, in other words.. a sample that believes that 25% of voters will be under 45 (instead of 49%) shows a tie. And this poll doesn’t even mention how their samples split either.

This is obviously bad news for Obama.