Whilst trolling for poll data I came across this SurveyUSA 600 sample poll from Iowa taken between January 4th and 6th. I was struck by the approval numbers for dubya and the issues crosstabs. More on that on the flip.
Why Iowa? I’m intrigued by this polling after the caucuses.
The margin of error is 3.8%. The poll was sponsored by KAAL-TV Rochester-Mason City-Austin.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
All
31% – approve
67% – disapprove
2% – not sureDemocrats [46% of sample]
4% – approve
96% – disapprove
1% – not surerepublicans [31% of sample]
74% – approve
24% – disapprove
3% – not sureIndependents [22% of sample]
29% – approve
68% – disapprove
3% – not sure
The disapproval number from self-identified Democrats is remarkable. One can’t get much closer to universal derision within a group.
For months voters in Iowa have been inundated with the message from various campaigns that things ain’t right. I wonder about the impact of this nationally on dubya’s numbers in the coming months.
Nothing fails like failure.
Top Issues for Next President (dubya’s approval numbers within each group)
Economy [23% of sample]
27% – approve
72% – disapprove
1% – not sureHealth Care [20% of sample]
16% – approve
82% – disapprove
2% – not sureIraq [17% of sample]
19% – approve
80% – disapprove
1% – not sureEnvironment [8% of sample]
14% – approve
86% – disapprove
0% – not sureSocial Security [5% of sample]
30% – approve
66% – disapprove
4% – not sureEducation [4% of sample]
21% – approve
78% – disapprove
1% – not sureTerrorism [10% of sample]
82% – approve
17% – disapprove
1% – not sureImmigration [9% of sample]
55% – approve
40% – disapprove
5% – not sure
The issue for the republican base is fear. Terrorism and immigration – that’s all the republican candidates have got.
Unless Ron Paul is their nominee or the republican candidates start running against dubya’s legacy I can’t see how the republican nominee avoids a crushing defeat come November.
Well, okay, Ron Paul would be a humiliating defeat, but for other reasons.