SurveyUSA says: McCain 48, Obama 46

SurveyUSA says 48/46 McCain

I’d mention the Research2000 polling, but internals are currently hard to come by, and i’m reading either 47/46 McCain or 49/45 McCain there. Or both at different times. I’ll save some posting for other front-pagers though.

The internals for SurveyUSA..

Males (50%): 50/44 McCain

Females (50%): 48/47 Obama

18-34 (24%): 57/37 Obama

35-49 (31%): 51/44 McCain

50-64 (26%): 49/44 McCain

65+ (19%): 58/38 McCain

18-49 (55%): 50/45 Obama

50+ (45%): 52/41 McCain

White (86%): 53/42 McCain

African-American (10%): 83/14 Obama

Republican (32%): 89/8 McCain

Democratic (38%): 82/14 Obama

Independent (23%): 48/41 McCain

North MO (14%): 60/34 McCain

Kansas City (19%): 55/39 Obama

SW MO (18%): 57/37 McCain

St. Louis (40%): 50/45 Obama

SE MO (9%): 50/44 McCain

Keeping in mind that I don’t know how SurveyUSA defines geography (or why the St. Louis market is going to outvote KC by two times).. Therefore, here are a few comments from those numbers.

1) 37% in SW MO? If that holds up, then things are going to be very interesting. It was Jim Talent’s soft showing in SW MO in 2006 that was a signal that he was going to have a bad night. Even after Governor Turtle’s ascent to the fencepost, McCain isn’t at 60% in Southwest Missouri?

2) 55% for the KC metro area is promising. I don’t recall Kerry getting into the high 50s for just Jackson County in 2004. Obama will roll in the KCEB section of the county and I’d imagine things should go well in the JCEB section (aka EJC).

3) 44% in Southeast MO suggests that either they’re sampling oddly random places, or the Boothill and the whole area around HD152 will give us a good enough showing for Obama. Or Cape is soft for McCain too.

So, Here is some comparison to the exit polling done at the nadir of Missouri Democratic performance (2004).

53% of voters were women in 2004, contrary to the sample used by SurveyUSA; 89/8 was the racial split in 2004. The age demos were slightly different, 20% of 18-29 voted in 2004, so those people are now 22-33, and a 4 point spike in 4 years might be a bit small. The 65+ vote is up from the 2004 sample (it was 11%, and +4 Kerry in 2004).

But in 2006 the splits included 55% female, 83/13 White, 17% over 65, and 15% who were 18-29.

So essentially we’re in House of Mirrors territory. It’s a horserace.

No word on if the Post-turtle will be debating at Wash-U next week. John McCain is debating tonight, but you never know about how available the hermit-esque VP candidate will be.