Poll internals right here
Sponsor: SurveyUSA, for Roll Call
634 likely voters, 41R/30D/25I
If the election for President were today, would you vote for Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
McCain – 60%
Obama – 36%If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer? Democrat Judy Baker? Or some other candidate?
Luetkemeyer – 50%
Baker – 38%
Other – 10% (don’t get too excited Tamara Millay)
Favorable/Unfavorables
McCain: 54/29 favorable
Obama: 36/53 unfavorable
Luetkemeyer: 38/18 favorable (31% neutral)
Baker: 31/21 favorable (33% neutral)
Hulshof: 48/22 favorable (20% neutral)
Bush’s job approval: 42%
Offshore drilling loses to Alternative Energy, 52-38
More?
Well, to put it briefly, it’s not exactly a bad 12 point deficit for Baker. Considering that her name rec is as high as Luetkemeyer’s. There’s a slight Luetkemeyer lean for favorables but nothing too insurmontable.
So pardon my skepticism for the poll sample, which seems slightly Republican tilted.
The split by party for the 9th’s race
Republicans: 87/5 Luetkemeyer
Democrats: 85/8 Baker
Independents: 44/34 Luetkemeyer
So going off of that, a higher Dem turnout and a better showing amongst Independents is a ticket to DC for Judy Baker.
Claire McCaskill did pretty well in the 9th in 2006. Susan Montee did even better (as a baseline for low-info down-ticket races).
12 points is a worst case scenario, and I think things are only about to get more heated and active in the Fighting 9th.