It’s very interesting stuff. Of course, many people focus on the “top numbers” (cough, cough, our useless media) which can lead to fascinating assumptions given the usual margin of error. The really interesting stuff comes when you delve deeper into the numbers.
For instance, SurveyUSA did a 2000 sample of Missouri adults January 30th and 31st. That’s serious effort and money for opinion research. From that sample they split out 664 likely voters in the Democratic primary. Think about that for a minute. If their initial screen consists of 2000 adults (not registered voters) we might assume, extrapolating the assumptions of the original sample if it represents the actual population, that 33.2% of Missouri adults (not registered voters) are going to participate in the Democratic primary on February 5th.
According to the Missouri Secretary of State Missouri had 4,007,174 registered voters in 2006 (that number has probably gone up since then). Now these are going to be rough numbers, but keep following me. The U.S. Census estimates that Missouri’s 2006 population was 5,842,713 of which 24.2% were under the age of 18 (and thus, not eligible to vote). That would leave 4,428,776 adults in Missouri. You’ve got to love those round numbers for estimates, eh? That would mean that 90% (in 2006) of Missouri adults were registered to vote. And, applying the recent SurveyUSA sample, I assume that means that (roughly) 1,470,354 people will vote in the Democratic Primary on February 5th.
Okay, in the 2006 election Claire McCaskill garnered 1,055,255 votes. In 2004 John Kerry received 1,259,171 votes and Claire McCaskill received 1,301,442 votes.
Am I missing something here?
According to the SurveyUSA poll 7% of the Democratic presidential primary likely voters will be republicans. That leaves 93% who are not republican. I’ll assume that 7% didn’t vote for Claire in 2006 or John Kerry and Claire McCaskill in 2004. So 1,367,429 non-republican voters in the Democratic primary on February 5th – compared to the number of votes in 2004 and 2006?
Ah, maybe it’s the 2004 Robin Carnahan vote (1,367,783). But then, she was running against Catherine Hanaway.
Will turnout be higher than usual? You better believe it. Will it be higher than the 2004 and 2006 general elections? It’s possible, but I’d be greatly surprised.
Update: Mason-Dixon released a poll for McClatchy/MSNBC this morning (see below).
In 2004 543,392 voters participated in the presidential preference primary for all parties. 418,339 people voted in the Democratic primary. Now, of course, the Democratic nominee had been anointed by the media at this point in 2006, so that did suppress the turnout.
I digress way too much.
Getting back to SurveyUSA:
Top Issue for Next President (Democratic primary preference numbers within each group)
Economy [44% of sample]
48% – Hillary Clinton
45% – Barack Obama
4% – Other
3% – UndecidedHealth Care [22% of sample]
50% – Hillary Clinton
45% – Barack Obama
2% – Other
2% – UndecidedIraq [13% of sample]
48% – Hillary Clinton
46% – Barack Obama
6% – Other
0% – UndecidedEnvironment [4% of sample]
52% – Hillary Clinton
45% – Barack Obama
3% – Other
0% – UndecidedSocial Security [4% of sample]
59% – Hillary Clinton
29% – Barack Obama
11% – Other
1% – UndecidedEducation [3% of sample]
35% – Hillary Clinton
59% – Barack Obama
2% – Other
4% – UndecidedImmigration [3% of sample]
77% – Hillary Clinton
14% – Barack Obama
9% – Other
0% – UndecidedTerrorism [2% of sample]
34% – Hillary Clinton
17% – Barack Obama
49% – Other
0% – Undecided
The economy is a big concern of Democratic primary voters. I was wondering why we haven’t seen any commercials on the war in Iraq (well, okay, John McCain).
Let’s take a look at the numbers from likely Democratic presidential primary voters by region of the state:
Region
Ozark [16% of sample]
62% – Hillary Clinton
32% – Barack Obama
6% – Other
0% – UndecidedKansas City [25% of sample]
43% – Hillary Clinton
50% – Barack Obama
5% – Other
3% – UndecidedCentral [8% of sample]
50% – Hillary Clinton
34% – Barack Obama
12% – Other
5% – UndecidedSt. Louis [50% of sample]
46% – Hillary Clinton
48% – Barack Obama
5% – Other
2% – Undecided
It would appear that the circulated meme about a negative “Hillary effect” on outstate legislative races hasn’t had very much impact with Democratic voters in those areas.
Gender:
male [46% of sample]
36% – Hillary Clinton
54% – Barack Obama
8% – Other
2% – Undecidedfemale [54% of sample]
58% – Hillary Clinton
36% – Barack Obama
4% – Other
2% – Undecided
There’s the GOTV strategy. Need I say more?
On to others.
ARG did a 600 sample poll (490 Democrats and 110 independent and Republicans):
If the 2008 Democratic presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote – Clinton, Obama, or someone else?
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Jan 31-Feb 1
Clinton – 42%
Obama – 44%
Someone else – 5%
Undecided – 9%Missouri
Likely Democratic Primary Voters
Democrats [82%] – Independents (18%) [sample]
Clinton – [44%] – (31%)
Obama – [41%] – (59%)
Someone else – [6%] – (2%)
Undecided – [9%] – (8%)
I don’t think they pushed the “undecideds”. SurveyUSA had the undecideds at 2%.
Rasmussen came out with a 507 sample of “Likely Democratic Primary Voters” which was conducted on January 31, 2008:
…The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton attracting 47% of the vote while Obama earns 39%. Eleven percent (11%) still plan on supporting some other candidate while 4% are undecided. Just 66% of voters are “certain” they have settled on their final choice in this election and events over the final weekend of the campaign could impact the final results…
They have some interesting observations:
…In Missouri, Clinton leads by fifteen points among women and by three points among men.
The former First Lady is viewed favorably by 76% of Likely Primary Voters while Obama earns such positive reviews from 72%.
Forty-six percent (46%) say the economy is the top voting issue. Nineteen percent (19%) name the War in Iraq while 14% say Health Care is the top priority…
[emphasis added]
Note the similarities in issues with SurveyUSA (given the margin of error).
As for gender and GOTV? Uh, yeah.
Update:
The Mason-Dixon poll [pdf] from January 30th through February 1st of 400 likely Democratic primary voters has margin of error of 5%. As always, it’s really not about the top numbers, especially with a 400 sample for a statewide poll.
QUESTION: If the 2008 Missouri Democratic primary were held today, which one of the following candidates would get your vote: (ORDER ROTATED)
All
Hillary Clinton – 47%
Barack Obama – 41%
Others (NOT READ) ** – 2%
Undecided (NOT READ) – 10%Gender:
Men
Hillary Clinton – 41%
Barack Obama – 47%
Others (NOT READ) ** – 3%
Undecided (NOT READ) – 9%Women
Hillary Clinton – 51%
Barack Obama – 37%
Others (NOT READ) ** – 1%
Undecided (NOT READ) – 11%Democrats
Hillary Clinton – 53%
Barack Obama – 37%
Others (NOT READ) ** – 1%
Undecided (NOT READ) – 9%QUESTION: Which ONE of the following issues do you feel is MOST important: (ORDER ROTATED)
The Economy & Jobs – 46%
Health care – 23%
Iraq – 12%
National Security or Terrorism – 5%
The Environment, Energy & Climate Change – 5%
Social Security – 1%
Other/Not Sure (NOT READ) – 8%DEMOGRAPHICS:
SEX:
Men 42%
Women 58%
Those issues again. In the same priority. The demographics tell the GOTV tale.