Via David Weigel, find below the first map of the electoral college for the 2012 election produced by Carl Rove – who Weigel notes, has been surprisingly accurate in the past.  Weigel observes that it is “more optimistic than some Democrats I talk to are willing to be,” adding the parenthetical “Rove, you prince of trickery!” I wonder what he could possibly mean?

Of especial interest: Rove considers Missouri to be a toss-up, which, if it pans out, should be good news for Claire McCaskill. There’s nothing like a good set of coattails (and “toss-up” constitutes better coattails than “leans Romney” – which better conforms to conventional wisdom).  Of course, as far as McCaskill’s chances go, there’s also nothing like a set of potential opponents who are, as Ed Kilgore puts it, engaged in “one of those look-at-me-I’m-the-craziest GOP primaries.”

Addendum: Missouri’s toss-up status probably explains why Carl Rove’s Crossroads GPS is ginning up its ad campaign against McCaskill once again:

Crossroads GPS, the nonprofit affiliate of the GOP-aligned super PAC, is launching an $1.2 million ad blitz against five Democratic Senate candidates on Tuesday, using its early financial advantage to attack the candidates’ records on spending and taxes.

The ads are targeted against Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., Rep. Shelley Berkley, D-Nev., former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine, and former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp.

Be prepared for some big time lies – and remember there’s lots more $ where these ad buys come from.