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Catherine Hanaway, Kit Bond, missouri, Robin Carnahan, Roy Blunt, Sam Graves, Sarah Steelman, Senate
Today swirled with speculation at who might jump into the 2010 race for Kit Bond’s seat in the Senate. You might think Democrats would be lining up to take a shot at an open seat, but just as before Bond’s surprise announcement, speculation pretty much begins and ends with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.
Which makes sense, because she is one of only three Democrats elected statewide to state government since 2004, and one of the others, Jay Nixon, just got elected governor. The Democratic Party has been in the minority in the lege for awhile, so it’s hard to see a Democrat coming from Jeff City claiming a solid legislative resume. The last Dem to try that lost badly in a primary. Jonathan Singer from MyDD puts in a plug for Jeff Smith (D-St. Louis), but seeing as he can’t knock on every door in the state, and he’s still not very well known outside of Saint Louis, that ain’t gonna happen. (There’s also the matter of the SDCC’s performance last cycle, but that wasn’t completely his fault.) On the Democratic side, it’ll be Robin Carnahan.
Devilstower from Daily Kos and Dave Weigel run through some of the possibilities on the Republican side, Weigel implausibly making the case that Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder is the frontrunner. I can see Kinder running, and if he made it through the primary, even making a decent run for the seat. After all, he’s the only statewide Republican to win in a huge Democratic year, and he has a safe seat he can return to if he loses the primary or the general. But I think he’ll do what he did a year ago, which is bow out “for the good of the party” and side with the candidate who looks like a winner.
They might pull Jim Talent from the mothballs. But he lost ground to Claire McCaskill in the ‘burbs, and in SW Missouri in 2006 (both crucial for GOP chances in 2010), and he already has the stink of a loser about him (He lost in 2000 against Bob Holden, as well.) Rep. Roy Blunt and former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman have talked about running, too. I don’t see either of them able to take out Carnahan, or frankly take the nomination. With Steelman in particular, there’s no love lost between her and much of the rest of the MO GOP.
My prediction is that we’ll see the MO GOP coalescing around two candidates: US Attorney Catherine Hanaway and Rep. Sam Graves (R-Tarkio). Catherine Hanaway, because she’s a Bond protege and former Speaker of the Missouri House, and Sam Graves, because he doesn’t care who Bond might anoint and thinks he deserves a shot after his 2008 thrashing of Kay Barnes. Barnes was a top Democratic recruit last cycle, and despite good early fundraising, beacoup bucks from the DCCC, and a high profile from her days as KC Mayor, went nowhere in a really nasty campaign. If Hanaway should win the primary and face Carnahan, it would be a rematch from the 2004 race for Secretary of State.
I’m sure I’m missing a ton of possibilities, especially since so many legislators are termed out in 2010. What do you think?
If Graves runs, i’m expecting Shields or Ridgeway to run for MO-6. Shields is termed out in 2010, Ridgeway is termed out in 2012. Rob Schaaf and Ed Wildberger would then leap up to run in the 34th to replace Shields. As for Dems in MO-6, I’ll just throw out the name Trent Skaggs, who is termed out in 2010 and who is 37 from North Kansas City.
If Blunt runs, then Nodler probably runs for MO-7 along with someone from the Springfield area. Matt Blunt running may be a bit interesting as it’s an open invitation for someone mad at Blunt from the right (Stem Cells). I don’t think we have a plausible shot at MO-7, but maybe someone with electoral experience will run.
If Emerson runs, then there’s quite a few people who can plausibly run. Rob Mayer (R-Dexter), Jason Crowell (R-Cape Girardeau), or Kevin Engler (R-Farmington) for the Reps [all of whom are termed out in 2012], or Sarah Steelman. For the Dems, it’s been a long time since there was an open seat primary in Southeast Missouri, but Frank Barnitz lives in the 8th.
Graves is very likely to run unless he’s held out of a window by his ankles by NRSC leaders. Blunt is likely to run based on what i’ve heard.
If Kinder runs, it basically means that Republicans will be limited even further in 2012. Kinder is more likely to be a sacrificial goat in 2012 than a Senate candidate.
For the Republicans, I can’t really see a termed out state Senator leaping up towards the US Senate when you consider that you’d have better luck growing grass in 120 degree heat than rising that far in a Republican primary against such tough competition.
The only termed out Republicans I haven’t mentioned who are plausible candidates are Bartle, Scott, Vogel, and Clemens.
The smoke should clear a bit more before I get too wild with speculation.
if only for this line: “Podiums everywhere will feel safer, knowing that they’re not going to be subject to Bond’s red-faced pounding.” I laughed–well, not till I cried–but hard enough to scare the cat off my lap.
was speaking with some people this evening who were saying that smith is going to go for it and has been laying ground work for just this opportunity. i know he has his eyes set on bigger things but not this and not now
I think it is Carnahan’s seat if she wants it.
If the next two years are going to be as good the Democrats as I think it is, I think Carnahan is the prohibitive favorite.